PLAYOFF WCF GAME 3: GSW (3-0) vs. DAL (0-3) | 100-109 loss

[mvossman]

After watching that brick fest from deep I'd just like to remind everyone that we traded Seth Curry for Josh Richardson

Ironically Josh shot well over 40% from 3 this season.  I realize bridges were burned and he was not going to opt in without being traded, but he would have been more useful giving Dorian and Bullock a breather than any of Green/Frank/Brown.

[hakeemfaan]

Gobert is simply too costly for the Mavs to acquire, and I'm not even talking about his contract (the Mavs have plenty of awful contracts for salary matching). We can't mortgage several years of picks for Gobert when we also have a massive problem with the offense stalling which he would do nothing to fix. We can get 50% of what Gobert does for a team for a fraction of the cost.

Gobert or that type helps out a few different ways. 

A team with Luka is never going to be a wild run n gun team.  Even if he is fit his body type is not suited for that game and it would only tire him out.  Gobert gives him a perfect lob partner and someone the Loonys of this world have to battle hard on the boards and on PnR attempts with Luka. Don’t underestimate how much that can open up the floor for others as well apart from making life so much easier for Luka. 

Defensively while he can give up some open shots when teams in the playoffs start specifically going small ball,  the hope is that  the overall offense and defense that he will bring can withstand those things. He has never played with a guy like Luka. Again if Stephen Adams could cause so much problem for GS let’s not overthink and play into the hands of every team trying smallball. 

Also centers without pedigree take a long time before refs start giving them the benefit of doubt that someone like Gobert automatically gets. So sure you can find one for cheap but unless it is a veteran it might take a few years before we start seeing returns. 

As for money and what it would take, that would be my only concern. I don’t have a concern at all on fit and on how much legit better it would make the Mavs.

[cow]

The optics of Luka and the Mavs getting swept would not be ideal.  

Jokic won one versus the Warriors this postseason. The Grizzlies won one without Morant vs Warriors this postseason (and another with Morant). Even Trae Young won 2 games vs the eventual NBA champs Milwaukee Bucks last year in the ECF.

The good news is that we are going to win the next four.

[ThisIStheYear]

So, where did my prediction go wrong, as I thought the Mavs should win this series. Let’s face it. Luka is probably the best player in the series, but the Warriors, unlike Phoenix or Utah, have their own peer all time great still in his prime to counter.  Then, it’s just very one sided. Brunson is about as good as Poole, who’s what, maybe the Warrior’s 4th option.  Green and Loon are absolutely dominant compared to the Mavs bigs. Wiggins is as good as DFS defensively but has a whole other gear on offense, so good role player vs borderline all star there.  The Mavs were clearly better than GSW last year but the Warriors have just made a bigger jump this season and have clearly moved back in front for the foreseeable future.  The Mavs are going to need to add this off-season while hoping GSW loses a good player or two.

[SwisherPrice]

Warriors did not have Klay the past two seasons. He is back and looking healthy (averaging almost 20 in the playoffs).

Mavs just have too many holes - this was a team built to have 4 pieces (Luka, KP, THJ, and Brunson). When THJ went down, they lost one of those pieces and Dinwiddie is just replacing KP. It's hard to fill that 4th spot with role players but DFS, Bullock, and Kleber have done as much as they can to get this far. Eventually they were bound to run out of gas against a better team. Scheme and execution got them past the Suns but now they're playing a team with more talent that can also out-scheme and out-execute.

[mvossman]

So, where did my prediction go wrong, as I thought the Mavs should win this series. Let’s face it. Luka is probably the best player in the series, but the Warriors, unlike Phoenix or Utah, have their own peer all time great still in his prime to counter.  Then, it’s just very one sided. Brunson is about as good as Poole, who’s what, maybe the Warrior’s 4th option.  Green and Loon are absolutely dominant compared to the Mavs bigs. Wiggins is as good as DFS defensively but has a whole other gear on offense, so good role player vs borderline all star there.  The Mavs were clearly better than GSW last year but the Warriors have just made a bigger jump this season and have clearly moved back in front for the foreseeable future.  The Mavs are going to need to add this off-season while hoping GSW loses a good player or two.

I don't agree with the Dorian/Wiggins comparison.  Dorian is the better defender, and Wiggins might be the more versatile offensive player, but he is less efficient and tends to do boneheaded things.  Don't see that as a role player vs borderline all star.  Unfortunately that means you are comparing Bullock with Klay (no question who wins that comparison) and your right about the center position.

As far as the future is concerned, if you look at the injury history of their core 3 guys the last couple of years, its a minor miracle they are all healthy right now.  I don't think any of them are as good as they were in their prime, and they are not getting any younger.  This might actually be their last legit chance to win it all.

[audiosway]

GS had problems with Stephen Adams in there. Memphis had a ton of shots that they missed. When talking about next season it is advisable to not get so caught up in what happened that we try to let teams like GS dictate their game plan to us. You have to play to your strengths too and hope it works out.  

I am warming up immensely to the idea of Gobert on this team.

That's my ideal get. Gobert would be a stud at the rim on D and an upgrade to Powell by a large bit on offense. Huge lob threat. It wouldn't matter if he was pulled outside to the perimeter because the Mavs have such big wings. Bullock, DFS, and Kleber would be the best group he's ever played with on D.

I think Gobert and a couple of backup wings would solve the majority of their problems. I know exactly what you mean about not getting caught up with trying to beat one team. I'm thinking that would give them the versatility to beat pretty much any team out there. It would at least give them a fighting chance. And when you have a guy like Luka that's all you need.

[mvossman]

That's my ideal get. Gobert would be a stud at the rim on D and an upgrade to Powell by a large bit on offense. Huge lob threat. It wouldn't matter if he was pulled outside to the perimeter because the Mavs have such big wings. Bullock, DFS, and Kleber would be the best group he's ever played with on D.

I think Gobert and a couple of backup wings would solve the majority of their problems. I know exactly what you mean about not getting caught up with trying to beat one team. I'm thinking that would give them the versatility to beat pretty much any team out there. It would at least give them a fighting chance. And when you have a guy like Luka that's all you need.

In my mind we have two options this offseason, go for the big move now to make us true contenders next season, or shore up the gapping holes (sign Brunson and get a center) and make the big move the following offseason, when we have access to all of our picks and a little more room to maneuver with contracts.

If we are going big move this offseason, then its hard to see a better target than Gobert.  He is a perfect fit with Luka, and by far the highest impact player that will actually be available and possibly attainable with our limited assets (due to his enormous contract).

Personally my preference would be to shore up the center position this offseason, and then make the big move next offseason for an elite two way player that would fit with Luka (like the Bucks did with Jrue), but I could be talked into Gobert if the price was right.

[michaeltex]

I think Gobert and a couple of backup wings would solve the majority of their problems. I know exactly what you mean about not getting caught up with trying to beat one team. I'm thinking that would give them the versatility to beat pretty much any team out there. It would at least give them a fighting chance. And when you have a guy like Luka that's all you need.

I disagree because the mega $$s in Gobert's contract will handcuff the Mavs severely in putting a team together. Worse than the KP mistake. You might address (somewhat) the needs in the middle, but you'll not get an solutions to the other issues that need addressing. Granted, he does a pretty good job as a rim protector, but if/when he gets pulled to the perimeter he's going to be a liability.

[sefant]

In my mind we have two options this offseason, go for the big move now to make us true contenders next season, or shore up the gapping holes (sign Brunson and get a center) and make the big move the following offseason, when we have access to all of our picks and a little more room to maneuver with contracts.

If we are going big move this offseason, then its hard to see a better target than Gobert.  He is a perfect fit with Luka, and by far the highest impact player that will actually be available and possibly attainable with our limited assets (due to his enormous contract).

Personally my preference would be to shore up the center position this offseason, and then make the big move next offseason for an elite two way player that would fit with Luka (like the Bucks did with Jrue), but I could be talked into Gobert if the price was right.

Utah would literally ask for Brunson/DFS/Bullock (2 out of 3), thats the problem. If he was available for a Bertans/THJ/SD package, sure. Are we a better team without DFS/Bullock? If you add Gobert.

Utah is awful on defense, they want 3/D guys.

[Mavs2021]

In my mind we have two options this offseason, go for the big move now to make us true contenders next season, or shore up the gapping holes (sign Brunson and get a center) and make the big move the following offseason, when we have access to all of our picks and a little more room to maneuver with contracts.

If we are going big move this offseason, then its hard to see a better target than Gobert.  He is a perfect fit with Luka, and by far the highest impact player that will actually be available and possibly attainable with our limited assets (due to his enormous contract).

Personally my preference would be to shore up the center position this offseason, and then make the big move next offseason for an elite two way player that would fit with Luka (like the Bucks did with Jrue), but I could be talked into Gobert if the price was right.

If you do that trade, you are saying Luka, Gobert, Brunson, DFS is good enough to win a championship cause you´ll be paying those four $125M until 2026. You better hope Gobert can stay on the floor with better perimeter defenders and actually finish inside with Luka throwing the lob passes. I just don´t see the risk-reward at this point. I´d rather fix the Robin problem first and look at players like Nurkic to consolidate the middle.

[michaeltex]

I don't think any of them are as good as they were in their prime, and they are not getting any younger.  This might actually be their last legit chance to win it all.

I will add that Green only played 46 games this season (missed Jan 9th until March 23rd) and Klay only played in 32 (basically the last 32). So the teams DAL played during the regular season were not the same team in the playoffs. Remember, GSW finished on a 5 game win streak and won 7 out of the last 10. If Green stayed healthy, they might have kept the #2 seed.

I do think their payroll considerations, only 8 under contract with the top 4 owed over $145MM next season, will limit the window for future championships.

[HoosierDaddyKid]

The optics of Luka and the Mavs getting swept would not be ideal.  

Jokic won one versus the Warriors this postseason. The Grizzlies won one without Morant vs Warriors this postseason (and another with Morant). Even Trae Young won 2 games vs the eventual NBA champs Milwaukee Bucks last year in the ECF.

It all depends on how much fight is left in them, and if the Dubs have already broken their spirit. Luka is going to fight, that's for sure. Question is can the others make shots and come along for the ride?   They have to play just about a perfect game, and hope GS misses shots and turns the ball over which they are prone to do sometimes. Funny someone on here mentioned that this wouldn't be too hard,  because the Mavs beat them 3-1 during the regular season.  I wonder what that person has to say now? You throw the regular season out the window playoff time.  Dallas had a good year, and reached heights no one expected. But this should be a great learning experience for them going forward, after acquiring the right players hopefully next year.

[mvossman]

If you do that trade, you are saying Luka, Gobert, Brunson, DFS is good enough to win a championship cause you´ll be paying those four $125M until 2026. You better hope Gobert can stay on the floor with better perimeter defenders and actually finish inside with Luka throwing the lob passes. I just don´t see the risk-reward at this point. I´d rather fix the Robin problem first and look at players like Nurkic to consolidate the middle.

I think that group is good enough to win and I am not really worried about Gobert staying on the floor, but I do have other concerns related to chemistry and Gobert's age.  As I mentioned, I feel like it is a little early to make an all in move and it would rather make it for 2 way wing a season or two later when we are in a better position from an asset standpoint.

[mvossman]

Utah would literally ask for Brunson/DFS/Bullock (2 out of 3), thats the problem. If he was available for a Bertans/THJ/SD package, sure. Are we a better team without DFS/Bullock? If you add Gobert.

Utah is awful on defense, they want 3/D guys.

Then you don't pull the trigger.  I seriously doubt anyone is going to give them that kind of package for that monstrous contract, but if it takes something like that then you walk.  They may just be looking for expiring/tradeable contracts and picks.

[mvossman]

If you do that trade, you are saying Luka, Gobert, Brunson, DFS is good enough to win a championship cause you´ll be paying those four $125M until 2026. You better hope Gobert can stay on the floor with better perimeter defenders and actually finish inside with Luka throwing the lob passes. I just don´t see the risk-reward at this point. I´d rather fix the Robin problem first and look at players like Nurkic to consolidate the middle.

On another note, you think Nurkic is going to be available for the tax MLE?

[mvossman]

I disagree because the mega $$s in Gobert's contract will handcuff the Mavs severely in putting a team together. Worse than the KP mistake. You might address (somewhat) the needs in the middle, but you'll not get an solutions to the other issues that need addressing. Granted, he does a pretty good job as a rim protector, but if/when he gets pulled to the perimeter he's going to be a liability.

I don't disagree with the contract concerns, but I think you are wildly understating Gobert's defensive impact.  "Pretty good job as a rim protector"?  He is the best interior defender in the game.  He has shown in the past that he can guard the perimeter as well.  He has been glued to the interior lately because Utah's perimeter defense is terrible.  I think that concern is way overblown.

[HoosierDaddyKid]

Utah would literally ask for Brunson/DFS/Bullock (2 out of 3), thats the problem. If he was available for a Bertans/THJ/SD package, sure. Are we a better team without DFS/Bullock? If you add Gobert.

Utah is awful on defense, they want 3/D guys.

My how fast things change. Just a couple of seasons ago, Utah had one of the best defenses in the NBA.

[omahen]

On another note, you think Nurkic is going to be available for the tax MLE?

I literally asked myself that when someone mentioned him. He is a good player but has limitations in modern ball. On the other side, guys like Olynik and Plumlee got more money. Definitely some Luka connections. But the word at TDL was, he wants to stay in Portland. 

These are some interesting names for tax MLE, imho: Bryant, Hartenstein, Harrell, Boucher, Smith, Portis

[sefant]

My how fast things change. Just a couple of seasons ago, Utah had one of the best defenses in the NBA.

I mean they are pretty good with Gobert, but probably bottom 5 without Gobert. When Gobert missed games, they were clueless, because their entire defensive system is funneling guys into Gobert.