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Yes, if we play better and they don’t, there’s a chance we might eek out a win. All they have to do is get a bit closer to their 15 made 3’s per game and our better than best will not be good enough. We had 5 days off, played at our home and gave them our best shot in game 1 with the players we were able to put on the floor. They didn’t have their best game and you guys are acting like it was.
Staying positive doesn’t mean you have to bring the other team down to make a case.
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I see a little more realism in the voting now than prior to game 1. Cognitive bias associated with fandom is very interesting. I was until recently the only one with a Utah sweep (though with Luka, I would have picked Mavs in 5). Without Luka, I give the Mavs a 50-50 chance to win one game, and in that case, they could probably eek out game 5 before falling in 6. Reading between the lines, I’m pessimistic Luka even sees the floor this series. So it’s either a sweep or six game loss I guess. This really sucks. What a waste of time this season is turning out to be.
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(04-18-2022, 04:26 PM)ThisIStheYear Wrote: I see a little more realism in the voting now than prior to game 1. Cognitive bias associated with fandom is very interesting. I was until recently the only one with a Utah sweep (though with Luka, I would have picked Mavs in 5). Without Luka, I give the Mavs a 50-50 chance to win one game, and in that case, they could probably eek out game 5 before falling in 6. Reading between the lines, I’m pessimistic Luka even sees the floor this series. So it’s either a sweep or six game loss I guess. This really sucks. What a waste of time this season is turning out to be.
Everyone saw the Jazz as a good matchup because they have been struggling overall but I think without Luka, the Jazz might be the worst matchup for us in the West outside of the Suns. This is the perfect series for Gobert to showcase his skills - without having to guard Luka on the perimeter and also no big man on the Mavs to challenge him, he can just roam around on defense and rebound. And then they also have Whiteside - not sure how a team with one of the best centers in the league is also able to get a capable backup like him for cheap while the Mavs entered the season with their same frontcourt from the last 2 years
Besides the big advantage at center, the Jazz have multiple scorers (Mitchell, Bojan, Conley, Clarkson) and they all scored 10+ in game 1 and have potential to shoot well from three.
Then, the playoff experience advantage is huge. That entire rotation has way more experience than the Mavs.
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(04-18-2022, 04:07 PM)ItsGoTime Wrote: Yes, if we play better and they don’t, there’s a chance we might eek out a win. All they have to do is get a bit closer to their 15 made 3’s per game and our better than best will not be good enough. We had 5 days off, played at our home and gave them our best shot in game 1 with the players we were able to put on the floor. They didn’t have their best game and you guys are acting like it was.
Staying positive doesn’t mean you have to bring the other team down to make a case.
I don't think I was bringing Utah down. I don't expect us to win a game without Luka. Game 1 was certainly our best opportunity and we all saw how that ended. Snyder is a good coach so his adjustments will be interesting. Pretty big test for Kidd as these were the moments where Rick was at his best. I know we haven't had a series win since 2011, but we haven't had the roster to be successful either. Without Luka, this might be our worst roster to be in the playoffs.
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14x All-Star, 12x all-NBA, 1x MVP, 1x Finals MVP, 1 NBA Championship: Dirk Nowitzki, the man, the myth, the legend.
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(04-18-2022, 06:18 PM)SleepingHero Wrote: https://twitter.com/townbrad/status/1516175908394217476
This was my next thread idea.
Did we miss THJ being out this year? Do we think he'd have any impact during this playoffs without Luka?
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(04-18-2022, 06:31 PM)cow Wrote: This was my next thread idea.
Did we miss THJ being out this year? Do we think he'd have any impact during this playoffs without Luka?
I was just imagining how much THJ would help in the role of Josh last game. He can score if nothing else. We desperately needed that last game.
I don't think we missed out on him this year. If anything the team continued to boon after he went out. Just goes to show how 1 or 2 more complete players radically would transform this team and should boost the argument that the Mavs need to do whatever they can to make a consolidation trade this summer.
14x All-Star, 12x all-NBA, 1x MVP, 1x Finals MVP, 1 NBA Championship: Dirk Nowitzki, the man, the myth, the legend.
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(04-18-2022, 06:46 PM)SleepingHero Wrote: I was just imagining how much THJ would help in the role of Josh last game. He can score if nothing else. We desperately needed that last game.
I don't think we missed out on him this year. If anything the team continued to boon after he went out. Just goes to show how 1 or 2 more complete players radically would transform this team and should boost the argument that the Mavs need to do whatever they can to make a consolidation trade this summer.
That was my conclusion as well. No for the season. Yes for the playoffs. Weird.
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(04-18-2022, 04:26 PM)ThisIStheYear Wrote: I see a little more realism in the voting now than prior to game 1. Cognitive bias associated with fandom is very interesting. I was until recently the only one with a Utah sweep (though with Luka, I would have picked Mavs in 5). Without Luka, I give the Mavs a 50-50 chance to win one game, and in that case, they could probably eek out game 5 before falling in 6. Reading between the lines, I’m pessimistic Luka even sees the floor this series. So it’s either a sweep or six game loss I guess. This really sucks. What a waste of time this season is turning out to be.
I’m feeling a little cognitive bias suddenly. That was a grown up win for the Mavs. The Jazz played well and the short handed Mavs still found a way to win.
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Game 4 was always my earliest preferred return for Luka...if it was that low/mid grade calf strain. That would give him 12 days. So now I think you sacrifice game 3, which will probably be a Jazz blowout and then hope he's ready for game 4.
Or if you like living dangerously...rest him until game 5 and try to win 3 straight like the 2001 Mavs.
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Some series averages that interest me 2 games in:
Points per game
Brunson 32.5
Jazz 101.5
Turnovers per game
Brunson 1
Mavs 5
Rebounds per game
Brunson 7.5
Jazz 51.5
3PM/A per game
Brunson 3.5/6.5
Kleber 5/8
Mitchell 2.5/8
Bogdonovic 1.5/5
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I disagree with this take. Sure Utah perimeter defense is not elite, but bad defense was not the reason they lost. Mavs scored 110 points in the win, thanks to shooting 47 % from three. league average 35 % would mean roughly 6 threes less and only 92 points scored. Mavs also had just three turnovers, which is almost impossible to repeat. Mavs offense was very, very efficient. Utah can continue to gamble leaving some Mavs relatively open on the three and it is very questionable if Mavs can repeat this performance or come close to it.
Utah lost (and barely won the first game) because their offense is not good or Mavs defense is great, whatever you prefer. Utah was shooting 40 threes per game in the regular season at 36 %. They are shooting just 25 threes per game in the playoffs at roughly same percentage. So Mavs defense successfuly took away one of their main weapons. They are scoring almost 12 points per game less than in regular season. This is what is giving the Mavs a fighting chance.
The big questions are, will Utah find a way to return to their regular season offense and will Mavs be able to sustain the defense? Without Luka, Mavs have very limited number of capable bodies and they are playing crazy minutes. Sad look at the bench doesn't really provide a name that we could hope for a bench spark, other than of course Luka. Guys were exhausted and it was just the second game. Utah has some interesting names on the bench (NAW, Gay, Paschall) that could provide a change.
(1) Kevin O'Connor on Twitter: "The Jazz perimeter defense was a disaster again tonight. Imagine Gobert with an elite wing like Bridges or good interior help from Horford. But O’Neale is their best. Mitchell needs to take more pride in defense. This roster needs major changes to ever become a serious contender." / Twitter
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