THJ Foot Fracture: What to do?

[mvossman]

I guess we disagree.


I would probably gone with a 20M defensive player then.  It's harder to be inconsistent at defense.  18M per for a streaky shooter that brings nothing else to the court...risky move.  He only had 2 years of ok shooting of the 3 before he was paid...previous 6 years weren't that great.   Maybe advanced stats show he kills it at open looks...I don't know...I'm going by basketball reference 3 numbers.

Anyway...a lot of money for few skills.  And the big skill he had you aren't guaranteed consistency.  I don't know.   I think I pass to less of a known player with all around skills but not great at any one skill.   But definitely know I would go for some sort if 2way player that wasn't "great".  I'm sure there are lots of players under 18m per that are fairly consistent 2way players.  Maybe they don't score 10 points a night...but offer consistent defense and can shoot or dribble fairly decent.


I'm assuming you will say those guys don't exist or something.

As mentioned above, I think you are probably undervaluing a high volume shooter who can make contested 3s at a good rate.  That gets you buckets when you can't generate anything better and creates a ton of spacing.  His offensive contribution is significant and that's what gets paid.

As for alternatives, there was no "20M defensive player".  Guys like Conley, Lowry and Lonzo were clearly not coming here.  The only big name we had a realistic shot at was DeRozan.  He can create and play make, but he can't shoot 3s or play defense.  Not a great fit with Luka, and he was 27 mil.

If you wanted to beef up on defensive players, maybe you could have raided the MLE group with some overpays on guys like Caruso or Danny Green, but the options there were limited as well.

[SleepingHero]

I'm assuming you will say those guys don't exist or something.

They probably do exist. But did they exist that summer? 

Some guys that fit your description were Nic Batum, someone that took less money to stay with LAC. Lonzo Ball, who never really was available and signed for more than 18m. Bjelicia who I felt the Mavs should've gone after! Caruso who everyone let slip through. 

Aaaaand that's it. So 4 guys. 1 who took a paycut to come back to his team. 1 that wasn't ever available. And the other two would've been good pickups, but not necessarily would've fit the THJ role that we were trying to fill. 

We know for a fact THJ wasn't option 1. The Mavs threw all their eggs into the Lowry basket. When that fell threw in the first 5 minutes of free agency, they quickly signed Bullock and resigned THJ, and then spent the next 3 months waiting for the Dragic buyout/trade. 

The guy they objectively should've gone after was DeRozan. There were a few here screaming into the void about going after him. But most were traumatized of JRich and his lack of floor spacing, something DeRozan wouldn't have fixed. 

But in any case, hindsight is 20/20. It was a disappointing free agency for the Mavs. I mean heck we all graded the THJ signing at the time and the board came away with a B/C grade.

[dynamicalVoid]

As mentioned above, I think you are probably undervaluing a high volume shooter who can make contested 3s at a good rate.  That gets you buckets when you can't generate anything better and creates a ton of spacing.  His offensive contribution is significant and that's what gets paid.

As for alternatives, there was no "20M defensive player".  Guys like Conley, Lowry and Lonzo were clearly not coming here.  The only big name we had a realistic shot at was DeRozan.  He can create and play make, but he can't shoot 3s or play defense.  Not a great fit with Luka, and he was 27 mil.

If you wanted to beef up on defensive players, maybe you could have raided the MLE group with some overpays on guys like Caruso or Danny Green, but the options there were limited as well.

I stand by my statement that I don't care what the market is paying certain players.

Imo...you need guys with better all around skills on your team than THJ has.  And look...here we are...everyone complaining about his contract and lack of skills(dribbling, creating, bad defense).

This is the problem with abandoning the draft...you're pretty much forced to pay market prices if you need a player.   

I just don't see how THJ is worth more than the rumored Brunson or DFS contracts will be.   You just can't talk me into saying that THJ deserves more money than those two...ever.

Im just not signing a player because I think I paid "fair" value.   No one wants THJ yet we paid "fair" value for him.

Players with better all around skills help you win more imo.   And I get that THJ spaces the floor so Luka can work.   Yes...we still need capable shooters....but I'm not paying 18.5M per for a guy that does nothing else.  It's simple to me.

[dynamicalVoid]

Kelly Oubre Jr at 12.5M per I would take over THJ every day.   Because he's streaky but plays way better defense imo.

Regardless...I'm letting THJ walk to prevent being strung to some decent sized contract for a streaky 1way player.   Luka and the offense would have to settle for a player on a better contract that might not space the floor as much.  Then I would try and find one in the next offseason or tdl.

[cow]

Don't Pay THJ

Memories...

[mvossman]

Kelly Oubre Jr at 12.5M per I would take over THJ every day.   Because he's streaky but plays way better defense imo.

Regardless...I'm letting THJ walk to prevent being strung to some decent contract for a streaky 1way player.   Luka and the offense would have to settle for a player on a better contract that might not space the floor as much.  Then I would try and find one in the next offseason or tdl.

He should be a good defender with his athleticism, but he never has been due to his low BBIQ.  Golden State turned Wiggins into a very useful player, but had no interest in holding onto Kelly.  If I remember correctly, he was a late signing and looking for a lot more than this.  Maybe we should have let THJ walk, miss on our big targets and then go bargain bin shopping for contracts like this at the end of free agency, but that feels like some serious hindsight.

[michaeltex]

He should be a good defender with his athleticism, but he never has been due to his low BBIQ.  Golden State turned Wiggins into a very useful player, but had no interest in holding onto Kelly.  If I remember correctly, he was a late signing and looking for a lot more than this.  Maybe we should have let THJ walk, miss on our big targets and then go bargain bin shopping for contracts like this at the end of free agency, but that feels like some serious hindsight.

[ThisIStheYear]

I don’t know about Oubre Jr., but DFS and Brunson are without question more valuable players than THJ, who has a limited skill set and has struggled even in that role for most of the year. The Mavs will win just as many games without him as they would with him.

[mvossman]

I don’t know about Oubre Jr., but DFS and Brunson are without question more valuable players than THJ, who has a limited skill set and has struggled even in that role for most of the year. The Mavs will win just as many games without him as they would with him.

Its weird that I find my self defending THJ and that contract as I was against his signing and felt it was too much (even if did represent "market" price).  I was not a fan of DeRozan either but I would have preferred that to running it back, or going after MLE folks like Caruso and Danny Green with slight overpays.  

But the THJ of the last two seasons was a significant contributor to winning games.  The contract he signed was market value and should be easily tradeable (before the injury), especially with its descending structure.  He started the season in a terrible slump like most of the team (admittedly a bigger hit for him as its his primary contribution), does not fit with Kidd's scheme and then broke his foot. 

Just seems like there is a lot of recency bias with all the THJ bashing.  He is not a good fit on this team, especially with Kidd as the coach, but we are likely going to be missing his offense the rest of this season, especially if we trade Brunson away.

[cow]

Just seems like there is a lot of recency bias with all the THJ bashing.  

Nah.  I know the rumors were that Dallas contacted New York about a trade for THJ and that blossomed into KP, but I never viewed THJ as anything more than part of the price to land KP.  Atlanta knew what they had and gladly let New York overpay him which New York quickly regretted.  Credit to THJ for and Rick for making his awful contract a little easier to swallow but it was still an awful contract.   Signing him to a contract MUCH closer to the MLE would have been alright, but we should have let someone else overpay him.  The only bright side is the contract structure.  And speaking of Rick and THJ, I think THJ is probably hurt the most by Rick leaving as that pairing seemed to get the best out of Timmy.

[SatnamSingh]

We are probably stuck with him now.

Giving THJ that deal was probably "fair" but IMO not a good move.  Akin to giving Randle that ridiculous $117 million extension.  A nice reward for a player performing at a high level.

But not good long term strategy.  You paid a guy at his absolute highest value and there's a strong chance he wont be worth that much going forward.

[ThisIStheYear]

Its weird that I find my self defending THJ and that contract as I was against his signing and felt it was too much (even if did represent "market" price).  I was not a fan of DeRozan either but I would have preferred that to running it back, or going after MLE folks like Caruso and Danny Green with slight overpays.  

But the THJ of the last two seasons was a significant contributor to winning games.  The contract he signed was market value and should be easily tradeable (before the injury), especially with its descending structure.  He started the season in a terrible slump like most of the team (admittedly a bigger hit for him as its his primary contribution), does not fit with Kidd's scheme and then broke his foot. 

Just seems like there is a lot of recency bias with all the THJ bashing.  He is not a good fit on this team, especially with Kidd as the coach, but we are likely going to be missing his offense the rest of this season, especially if we trade Brunson away.

As long as the THJ signing doesn’t prevent the Mavs from keeping more valuable players, like DFS and Brunson, I guess, no harm no foul. It’s Cuban’s money.  But, if when the dust settles, the Mavs have THJ and not the other guys because of money, then they were idiots.

[Jommybone]

Two responses to all this:

1. If Cuban won’t pay luxury tax like the other contenders do, that’s not the fault of THJ or his contract.

2. A guy who takes a lesser offer to sign with his current team on a descending contract isn’t getting paid the market rate. It’s a discount rate. I understand preferring bargain contracts, and Tim hasn’t been performing this season at the level he showed he could perform at. But his deal obviously wasn’t an overpay.

[dynamicalVoid]

Two responses to all this:

1. If Cuban won’t pay luxury tax like the other contenders do, that’s not the fault of THJ or his contract.

2. A guy who takes a lesser offer to sign with his current team on a descending contract isn’t getting paid the market rate. It’s a discount rate. I understand preferring bargain contracts, and Tim hasn’t been performing this season at the level he showed he could perform at. But his deal obviously wasn’t an overpay.

Man...it doesn't matter what his contract is...it's bad.   Anything over 10M is crazy for his skill set.  

I feel like posters are protecting the Mavs.   You don't pay a streaky one dimensional player that much.  You can't convince me.  And I donr want to hear about having a large contract to use in a trade.   You don't sign these guys.   Regardless of market value. 

Why is it so hard understand?

[Jommybone]

Man...it doesn't matter what his contract is...it's bad.   Anything over 10M is crazy for his skill set.  

I feel like posters are protecting the Mavs.   You don't pay a streaky one dimensional player that much.  You can't convince me.  And I donr want to hear about having a large contract to use in a trade.   You don't sign these guys.   Regardless of market value. 

Why is it so hard understand?

Easy to understand. Harder to execute. It’s not like we had better guys we coulda signed instead.

[dynamicalVoid]

Easy to understand. Harder to execute. It’s not like we had better guys we coulda signed instead.

I'm not an insider...so my opinion is marginal...

Are you suggesting you make the same move if you had to go back in time with same info?

[Jommybone]

I'm not an insider...so my opinion is marginal...

Are you suggesting you make the same move if you had to go back in time with same info?

Yes. Don’t think you are considering the alternatives. Maybe you are and just hate the signing that much. 
But not signing him wouldn’t have magically created cap space. It would have made it easier to avoid luxury tax while keeping DFS and JB, which is a good thing. But don’t see how it would’ve helped in any other way.

[dynamicalVoid]

Yes. Don’t think you are considering the alternatives. Maybe you are and just hate the signing that much. 
But not signing him wouldn’t have magically created cap space. It would have made it easier to avoid luxury tax while keeping DFS and JB, which is a good thing. But don’t see how it would’ve helped in any other way.

Are you sure you're not making it as if Mavs didn't have alternatives to signing thj to a bad contract?  Every other contract with another player would have been equally as bad  or equally as strenuous on the cap?

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All these people saying it was a bad move or not ideal...and you're defending it as if there were no other options.  Is that correct?  

Mavs had no other option but to sign a bad contract?

[SkenfromLMF]

The Mavs were over the cap, so it was literally THJ or bust... the only other option to THJ's contract would be bringing in players for the minimum OR using the MLE on something other than Bullock.

The LAST message you want to send Luka is that we are going CHEAP once you and KP both got your extensions. So make it work.

There is nothing wrong with the THJ contract until it prevents Dallas from keeping Brunson and DFS.

[Jommybone]

Are you sure you're not making it as if Mavs didn't have alternatives to signing thj to a bad contract?  Every other contract with another player would have been equally as bad  or equally as strenuous on the cap?

---

All these people saying it was a bad move or not ideal...and you're defending it as if there were no other options.  Is that correct?  

Mavs had no other option but to sign a bad contract?

You are putting words in my mouth. The other option was to lose THJ for nothing. I get that you think that was a better option. But there was no option to spend that same money on someone else. The cap rules don’t work that way. And there was no option to keep him at 10M/year. 

Now, could the Mavs have pulled off a sign and trade for a player on a better deal? Who knows. Could they have gone under the cap and had a little space in place of the full MLE? I don’t recall. But not significantly more space than the MLE (which they would’ve lost). 

I’m fine with disliking the deal. It’s early, I think, to call it a mistake. But it obviously hasn’t gone well so far. It’s another thing to say the Mavs should’ve signed someone else in his place. There is no cap path I can see that would’ve allowed them to land a contributor in his place. And his deal at the time seemed more than fair to me.