FA: Spencer Dinwiddie Heads to DAL | 1 yr/vet min

[Dundalis]

Oh, I don't either, and this specific addition is the final indicator of just how entrenched they are in a heliocentric, lack of ball movement offense they are. It's part of my disappointment.

EDIT: From what I can glean reading your takes on this page, we actually see this summer the same way (and differently from how many here see it) but might have differing levels of enthusiasm for how it turned out. I don't believe the Mavs will ever win a championship until the ball starts moving, personally. I would love to be wrong, because I agree that it's unlikely they'll approach things differently in the near future.

Fair enough. I think it can work, and IMO the evidence is making a WCF, and a Finals, when in both runs IMO we've had a clear deficit in overall depth of talent compared to every team we've faced, in some encounters overwhelming deficit. If we actually have somewhat equivalent depth of talent to the teams we are competing with, this team can win with this style of play based on that evidence, regardless of how poorly people think of the style, maybe primarily due to Harden being ringless.

I understand people's frustration with the play style from a preference standpoint. But half court offense is king in the playoffs, and when you have the best half court offensive producer outside maybe 1 guy, you just have to surround that player with the equivalent level of quality the other top teams have, and arguably up until now, the FO has completely failed to do that.

[KillerLeft]

Fair enough. I think it can work, and IMO the evidence is making a WCF, and a Finals, when in both runs IMO we've had a clear deficit in overall depth of talent compared to every team we've faced, in some encounters overwhelming deficit. 

Agreed, but that part hasn't changed, really, AND, in both cases, the more talented team was also more team-ball oriented. GS more so than BOS, but both teams could move the ball, create unpredictable offensive wrinkles and do a variety of other things we haven't seen a Kidd team do to this point (though this isn't meant as a Kidd bash - he has exceeded my expectations, low as they were). 

The point is, while I agree with what you're saying, I believe the cause and effect might not be as overt as it seems like you believe. I think there's having better players and I think there's using the players you have. If you do the latter well enough, it can be mistaken for the former, and vice versa. No team has ever won in the way the Mavs are trying to win, and there's a long history of players like Luka having to realize that and make teammate-trusting changes to their approach. Harden didn't, and his legacy will be far less significant than it should've been. Maybe Luka is the exception, but for me, a better bet would be to at least try to meet in the middle with some sort of team-oriented approach that allows everyone to touch the ball and get into rhythm consistently. Until I see this heliocentric approach get to the top of the mountain, I'm going to be skeptical.

[ballsrchr]

Agreed, but that part hasn't changed, really, AND, in both cases, the more talented team was also more team-ball oriented. GS more so than BOS, but both teams could move the ball, create unpredictable offensive wrinkles and do a variety of other things we haven't seen a Kidd team do to this point (though this isn't meant as a Kidd bash - he has exceeded my expectations, low as they were). 

The point is, while I agree with what you're saying, I believe the cause and effect might not be as overt as it seems like you believe. I think there's having better players and I think there's using the players you have. If you do the latter well enough, it can be mistaken for the former, and vice versa. No team has ever won in the way the Mavs are trying to win, and there's a long history of players like Luka having to realize that and make teammate-trusting changes to their approach. Harden didn't, and his legacy will be far less significant than it should've been. Maybe Luka is the exception, but for me, a better bet would be to at least try to meet in the middle with some sort of team-oriented approach that allows everyone to touch the ball and get into rhythm consistently. Until I see this heliocentric approach get to the top of the mountain, I'm going to be skeptical.

This hits the nail on the head--well written.  Sort of what I mean about Luka taking the next step.  Of course I'm a fumble tongued dolt and generally stumble all around what I'm trying to write.  I don't know if it is Luka or Kidd that sets the course on the current plan, but Luka, is the one who needs to make the primary changes.  And then Kidd can follow...

[mvossman]

If Dinwiddie's production is a product of the Mavs system, vs the other teams he's been on, he's in the playoff rotation, no question. We are talking about who's gonna fill in that third offensive role in the playoffs, like we didn't just lose to a team that had like 5 legit offensive weapons. Guys who can legitimately create their own shot (and shown a propensity to do well in clutch situations) are just as valuable come playoff time as the lockdown defender types. It could be that he's legitimately washed, but his post Mavs production is too similar to pre Mavs for me to think it's age related and not role/system related.

We also lost to a team that had 5 legit defensive weapons.  I feel like overcorrecting to offense at the expense of defense is unproductive.  In the playoff rotations, at least two of Luka/Kyrie/Klay will be on the court most of the time.  In those cases Din's offense will have diminishing returns while the defense takes a hit.  The alternative is likely Grimes, who is a better floor spacer and a better defender.

[KillerLeft]

Of course I'm a fumble tongued dolt and generally stumble all around what I'm trying to write.

Don't be so hard on yourself, my dude. I can't tell you how many times I try to make these complex, nuanced points and end up with 6-8 paragraphs that get skimmed and misinterpreted (because who wants to read all that) and then someone like Dan swoops in and makes the same point in three sentences. 

Communicating on a forum like this is more difficult than people think. I always love reading your stuff.

[KillerLeft]

We also lost to a team that had 5 legit defensive weapons.  I feel like overcorrecting to offense at the expense of defense is unproductive.  In the playoff rotations, at least two of Luka/Kyrie/Klay will be on the court most of the time.  In those cases Din's offense will have diminishing returns while the defense takes a hit.  The alternative is likely Grimes, who is a better floor spacer and a better defender.

So, I get that this is sort of a new, different point, but I also think it's adjacent to the conversation Dundailis and I were just having, because inevitably, the teams who involve everyone on offense tend to get maximum effort from everyone on defense. At least when it comes to the good teams.

[michaeltex]

Hoping to add to the SD conversation...

IMO, a big reason for Din's success in his previous DAL run was because he was rotating with two All-NBA caliber guards, although Brunson had yet to be recognized as such. This means he was always playing with a partner drawing a lot of attention which left him (SD) free to maximize his potential through either shooting a high 3pt % or making drives to the basket as lanes opened. Add in the current Dunkathon Twins and I hope to see him fit seamlessly in the rotation and keep the offense humming with Luka or Kyrie sit.

[KillerLeft]

Hoping to add to the SD conversation...

IMO, a big reason for Din's success in his previous DAL run was because he was rotating with two All-NBA caliber guards, although Brunson had yet to be recognized as such. This means he was always playing with a partner drawing a lot of attention which left him (SD) free to maximize his potential through either shooting a high 3pt % or making drives to the basket as lanes opened. Add in the current Dunkathon Twins and I hope to see him fit seamlessly in the rotation and keep the offense humming with Luka or Kyrie sit.

Agree, and this is (I think) what the Mavs' thought process is with the signing - rotating Luka and two combo guards - though perhaps on a smaller scale. 

I don't view Thompson as an initiator, and the drastic scale back of Exum in the playoffs has me questioning how Kidd views him, too. That potentially leaves a hole I was excited to see whether or not Hardy could fill, but this signing all but nukes that possibility, I think. 

My guess is that the Mavs are hoping Dinwiddie has enough to make the playoff rotation but that there's a chance he won't. There's no question he's a good addition as end of the bench insurance, if that's all he ends up being.

[mvossman]

Agree, and this is (I think) what the Mavs' thought process is with the signing - rotating Luka and two combo guards - though perhaps on a smaller scale. 

I don't view Thompson as an initiator, and the drastic scale back of Exum in the playoffs has me questioning how Kidd views him, too. That potentially leaves a hole I was excited to see whether or not Hardy could fill, but this signing all but nukes that possibility, I think. 

My guess is that the Mavs are hoping Dinwiddie has enough to make the playoff rotation but that there's a chance he won't. There's no question he's a good addition as end of the bench insurance, if that's all he ends up being.

Who knows, maybe Hardy will be deployed differently now with a little less on ball focus.  Maybe he ends up thriving in that scenario.  

As for Din playoff aspirations, I am guessing they are not necessarily planning on him being part of an 8 man rotation when everybody is healthy, but if any of those guys can't play (other than center), he is a better option than anything else on the roster to backfill that spot

[Scott41theMavs]

Who knows, maybe Hardy will be deployed differently now with a little less on ball focus.  Maybe he ends up thriving in that scenario.  

As for Din playoff aspirations, I am guessing they are not necessarily planning on him being part of an 8 man rotation when everybody is healthy, but if any of those guys can't play (other than center), he is a better option than anything else on the roster to backfill that spot

Put me in the "He's Guaranteed by Past History (and Likely by Signing Agreement) to Be at Least 8th in Minutes Unless He Really Has Fallen Off a Cliff" camp.

[mvossman]

Put me in the "He's Guaranteed by Past History (and Likely by Signing Agreement) to Be at Least 8th in Minutes Unless He Really Has Fallen Off a Cliff" camp.

We shall see.  If that is how it plays out, it will be a significant departure from the approach that got them to the finals last season.

[Scott41theMavs]

We shall see.  If that is how it plays out, it will be a significant departure from the approach that got them to the finals last season.

Agreed! That's why the signing concerned me.

We still need a reliable backup to PJ (Maxi, given his reliability history and recent shooting struggles, is deep bench imho). I would imagine Hardy (perhaps packaged with Powell?) will be traded for that guy.

[Jym]

Agreed! That's why the signing concerned me.

We still need a reliable backup to PJ (Maxi, given his reliability history and recent shooting struggles, is deep bench imho). I would imagine Hardy (perhaps packaged with Powell?) will be traded for that guy.

I guess that's the Marshall role at the moment 
Was already wondering how much Kleber would even get to play. Seems he's more of a 3rd string center

[mvossman]

Agreed! That's why the signing concerned me.

We still need a reliable backup to PJ (Maxi, given his reliability history and recent shooting struggles, is deep bench imho). I would imagine Hardy (perhaps packaged with Powell?) will be traded for that guy.

I think that is going to be Naji's role.  There is already a crunch at the 1-3 spots, so having Naji play all of the backup 4 minutes opens up playing time.

[KillerLeft]

I guess that's the Marshall role at the moment 
Was already wondering how much Kleber would even get to play. Seems he's more of a 3rd string center

Totally agree with this. 

Luka/Exum
Irving/Dinwiddie
Thompson/Grimes
Washington/Marshall
Lively + Gafford/Kleber

That's not a perfect representation of how I think it will work, but those are the player comps that make sense to me, and how I see it working in a general sense. Marshall will play with Washington at times, obviously, Thompson with Grimes, etc. I'm not saying the guy in the right column will only replace his counterpart on the left, but when it comes to the backup 4 I'm not worried a bit. There are tons of guys there who can play that position on offense, and I could argue that on defense, the 4 is the best spot for about three or four of them.

[KillerLeft]

Luka/Exum
Irving/Dinwiddie
Thompson/Grimes
Washington/Marshall
Lively + Gafford/Kleber

Also, it's really simple to pick out the top 7 from the above to form a sneak peak of a potential playoff rotation. 

Luka
Irving
Thompson
Washington
Lively

The next single spot in the rotation seems like it will go to either Gafford or Kleber, depending on health and/or matchups. Even if they both get into some playoff games, which is possible, I'd still count them as one spot because I think they'd be splitting one role (bench big). I don't think we'll see Kleber WITH one of the centers very much anymore at all, as long as both Washington and Marshall are healthy and playing well. So, that's 6. 

Then, I'd say Marshall makes 7. 

After that, it gets speculative, for now. I think Grimes probably slides in next, but I'm not sure. One of Exum or Dinwidde will probably play. If both, then maybe Grimes hasn't made it that far. 9 is about the max you can make room for in the playoffs. 8 might be a better bet, and I wouldn't bet the farm that Dinwiddie doesn't end up being ahead of BOTH Exum and Grimes on the list. 

Obviously a lot can change between now and then, however. Injuries, chemistry, the trade deadline, etc, etc, etc.

[Jym]

Totally agree with this. 

Luka/Exum
Irving/Dinwiddie
Thompson/Grimes
Washington/Marshall
Lively + Gafford/Kleber

That's not a perfect representation of how I think it will work, but those are the player comps that make sense to me, and how I see it working in a general sense. Marshall will play with Washington at times, obviously, Thompson with Grimes, etc. I'm not saying the guy in the right column will only replace his counterpart on the left, but when it comes to the backup 4 I'm not worried a bit. There are tons of guys there who can play that position on offense, and I could argue that on defense, the 4 is the best spot for about three or four of them.

I think we're all a little apprehensive about the playoff defense but man hard to argue with the overall talent of the team. I'm going to be disappointed if we're not a top 2 or 3 seed. Hopefully health agrees with us
That bench is a lineup that the old MBT would have given Dirk to play with (and he would have won 50 games with it)

[YaBoyAplus]

Playoff time Kidd is gonna trust Dinwiddie more than hardy.

Dinwiddie
Luka
Grimes
Marshall
Gafford

Will be the playoff bench lineup. Kidd is still always gonna keep one of Luka Ky on the court at all times. After that you can go to

Kyrie
Exum
Klay
Washington
Lively

Then you close the game/quarter with the starters, and use Marshall for offense defense with timeouts

[F Gump]

Totally agree with this. 

Luka/Exum
Irving/Dinwiddie
Thompson/Grimes
Washington/Marshall
Lively + Gafford/Kleber

I think you're missing badly on Kleber, both as to primary position and to the size (mpg) of the intended role. What I expect to see (barring injury) is:

DEPTH CHART
C  Gafford-Lively  
PF PJW-Maxi
SF Klay-Naji
SG Kyrie -Grimes
PG Luka -Exum/Dinwiddie

However, players slide between positions, so I think their priorities for minutes will look something like this when everyone is healthy:

CENTER DEFENSE - Gafford-Lively split 48 mpg
... Maxi-Powell get leftovers, if/when they exist, but these will be very few when everyone is healthy

OFFENSE (CREATORS) - Luka - Kyrie - Klay split 96 mpg  (but also have 3 starting spots)
.... Exum/Dinwiddie get leftover minutes, when they exist, but these will be very few when everyone is healthy

WING DEFENSE - the remaining 96 mpg - and these are essentially PF/SF aka 3-and-D wing roles
PJW - gets the only remaining starting spot
Also with regular minutes - Maxi-Naji-Exum (and perhaps Grimes earns some)

I see lots of DNP-CD for Hardy, Powell, Omax, SD, Morris/Lawson. Too many ahead of them.

[mvossman]

I think you're missing badly on Kleber, both as to primary position and to the size (mpg) of the intended role. What I expect to see (barring injury) is:

DEPTH CHART
C  Gafford-Lively  
PF PJW-Maxi
SF Klay-Naji
SG Kyrie -Grimes
PG Luka -Exum/Dinwiddie

However, players slide between positions, so I think their priorities for minutes will look something like this when everyone is healthy:

CENTER DEFENSE - Gafford-Lively split 48 mpg
... Maxi-Powell get leftovers, if/when they exist, but these will be very few when everyone is healthy

OFFENSE (CREATORS) - Luka - Kyrie - Klay split 96 mpg  (but also have 3 starting spots)
.... Exum/Dinwiddie get leftover minutes, when they exist, but these will be very few when everyone is healthy

WING DEFENSE - the remaining 96 mpg - and these are essentially PF/SF aka 3-and-D wing roles
PJW - gets the only remaining starting spot
Also with regular minutes - Maxi-Naji-Exum (and perhaps Grimes earns some)

I see lots of DNP-CD for Hardy, Powell, Omax, SD, Morris/Lawson. Too many ahead of them.

I disagree.  Maxi's unique set of skills makes him very valuable as a small ball center.  He is not nearly as valuable playing the 4, where his lack of offense is a bigger hit and his rim protection is less useful.  

Any two of PJ/Luka/Naji will be plenty of size in the frontcourt, especially when you have a legit center backing them up.  Most 4s in this league are really just big wings.  

By having Naji play the backup 4 minutes, you open up a lot more minutes for the backlog at 1-3.  

I love Maxi but he is the worst offensive player on the team.  It does not make sense to have him in the top 8 when we have better players that can fit in the same spot.  The exception being when we are going against 5 out teams in the playoffs that Gafford really struggles with.  In that case, Maxi will take some/most of his minutes.