2024 Playoffs- 3rd Round: Minnesota Timberwolves - Dallas Mavericks- MAVS WIN 4-1!

[BolsDamols]

Legs is picking the Mavs, thats all I needed to hear



I'd say we buck the trend and win Game 1!

[RGP1981]

Legs is picking the Mavs, thats all I needed to hear

I wanna know who Brent Barry is picking?

[Smitty]

To me the matchups are pretty straight forward.

Conley 6'0  -  Kyrie 6'2
ANT 6'4  -  DJJ 6'6
McDaniels 6'9  -  Luka 6'7
KAT 7'0  -  PJW 6'7
Gobert 7'1  -  Gafford 6'10/Lively 7'1

Luka 6'7 - McDaniels 6'9
Kai 6'2 - ANT 6'4
DJJ 6'6  -  Conley  6'0
PJW 6'7  -  KAT 7'0
Gafford 6'10  -  Gobert 7'1

Min Bench: PF/C  Reid 6'9 , G  NAW 6'5 , SF  K. Anderson 6'9
Mavs Bench:  C  Lively 7'1 , G  Green 6'5 , PF/C  Maxi 6'10 , G  THJ/Exum/Hardy 6'5


The Mavs really need Maxi back for this one. It could get ugly with DJJ playing backup 4 minutes against KAT/Reid. I do see the Mavs using DJJ as the screener almost exclusively Game 1, in order to get Conley switched onto LuKai. Then you can use a secondary screen from the 5 to get Gobert involved and open up the lob game. 

I also expect this to be the series where Kidd eventually has to switch things up and start Lively over Gafford, my guess is Game 3 at home. Hope it doesn't rock the boat - but it feels inevitable from my perspective.

Minny was always the toughest matchup in the playoffs, imo. I personally wanted to face the defending champs but here we are. I've got to stick with Mavs in 6!

MIN 3P%
Conley 44% - 5 3PA
KAT 41% - 5 3PA
Reid 41% - 5 3PA
NAW 39% - 4 3PA
ANT 35% - 7 3PA
McDaniels 33% - 3 3PA

Looks like Mavs will build their rotations to play off McDaniels and to an extent ANT.

Like they did for Giddey/Dort and Westbrook/Mann.

Kyle Anderson and Gobert the only non-shooters from deep out of their 8-man rotation.

I wonder if the Mavs elect to put Luka on KAT and PJ on McDaniels so that PJ can play help defense. It won’t be an every possession type move but something they can go to if need be?

After listening to some people that talk basketball. I feel even more confident in my takes. It didn't spark much discussion here. One thing I might change is the start Lively over Gafford take. Gafford will only be playable when Gobert is on the floor. I don't think he can play any time Minnesota goes to KAT/Reid, therefore I see Gafford starting the whole series and eating minutes against the DPOY.

One thing I'll add though.. Do we see Kidd go to PJ at the 5 some when Gobert is out there? It's the definite go-to in the playoffs year after year. 5-out vs a traditional Big.

Kai - Green - DJJ - Luka - Maxi  in the regular season: 135.0 ORTG 106.3 DRTG 28.8 NetRTG in 48 minutes (the 4th most used lineup this year)

PJ isn't quite Maxi but as close as one can get. Can you run that lineup with PJ at the 5, where he's played plenty in his career, and get the same production?

Conley - Kai
ANT - DJJ
McDaniels - Green
KAT - Luka
Gobert - PJW


I really miss Maxi...

[Chicagojk]

I think Conley is good. I have always been a fan. I remember though when we beat the Jazz in the playoffs, Conley really struggled and there was questions if he could still be that player in a long playoff run. I want the Mavs to go at him and really challenge him. He may answer the bell, but they are a different team is Conley is not effective.

https://x.com/iztok_franko/status/1793287255416619307

[michaeltex]

What I'm reading is that Conley is the secret sauce to make MIN work efficiently, so if he's having issues, then the game complexion changes. Although, stats indicate that most MIN starters scored better when he was out. I was unaware that he has an ongoing lower leg injury issue. The every other day schedule might be harsh on his recovery plan.

That aside, if he starts, he'll likely get Kyrie as a defensive assignment, although he still gives up a couple inches even to Kyrie. Kyrie should have a lot of fun with that matchup.

[SleepingHero]

Mavs Film Room(@MavsFilmRoom)
“I believe Luka is healthy. I believe that he is healthy enough that we're going to see the Luka that we're accustomed to throughout the series. That is my best understanding of all the conversations I've had.”

-Tim Cato on “The Only Mavericks Podcast”

[SleepingHero]

Grant Afseth (@GrantAfseth)
Luka Doncic on his knee sprain: "I'm good."

How much progress has been made?: "I don't know. I don't know. We'll see today, honestly. Didn't do much. Just a couple of things. All day, just rest [and] treat. That's about it."

[SleepingHero]

Tim MacMahon (@espn_macmahon)
Luka Doncic re: Jaden McDaniels: “When you asked me about that top three, I forgot about McDaniels. I told you, some people are going to be pissed, but I forgot about him. But he's definitely in top three. He's been doing incredible defensively. He has long [arms], he can jump. So he's locked in, and it's going to be tough to go against him.”

[The Jom]

I think Conley is good.  I have always been a fan.  I remember though when we beat the Jazz in the playoffs, Conley really struggled and there was questions if he could still be that player in a long playoff run.  I want the Mavs to go at him and really challenge him.  He may answer the bell, but they are a different team is Conley is not effective. 

https://x.com/iztok_franko/status/1793287255416619307

They really don’t have a backup PG, do they?

[audiosway]

What I'm reading is that Conley is the secret sauce to make MIN work efficiently, so if he's having issues, then the game complexion changes. Although, stats indicate that most MIN starters scored better when he was out. I was unaware that he has an ongoing lower leg injury issue. The every other day schedule might be harsh on his recovery plan.

That aside, if he starts, he'll likely get Kyrie as a defensive assignment, although he still gives up a couple inches even to Kyrie. Kyrie should have a lot of fun with that matchup.

That's my thinking too. I think Kidd will try to take Conley out of the game. That's going to put more pressure on ANT to initiate the offense.

Luka should have an easier time not dealing with the strength of Dort like Legs was talking about. I could also see Dallas shooting more mid range shots that Ky likes. That will cause Gobert to come out to help opening up a big in the post for a lob.

I don't think Minny is ready for the level of bully ball they are going to get either. Their path so far has been against finesse teams. KAT doesn't do well when he's bullied. And Gobert struggles to score when teams box out well since he lives off of putbacks.

[SleepingHero]

After listening to some people that talk basketball. I feel even more confident in my takes. It didn't spark much discussion here. One thing I might change is the start Lively over Gafford take. Gafford will only be playable when Gobert is on the floor. I don't think he can play any time Minnesota goes to KAT/Reid, therefore I see Gafford starting the whole series and eating minutes against the DPOY.

One thing I'll add though.. Do we see Kidd go to PJ at the 5 some when Gobert is out there? It's the definite go-to in the playoffs year after year. 5-out vs a traditional Big.

Kai - Green - DJJ - Luka - Maxi  in the regular season: 135.0 ORTG 106.3 DRTG 28.8 NetRTG in 48 minutes (the 4th most used lineup this year)

PJ isn't quite Maxi but as close as one can get. Can you run that lineup with PJ at the 5, where he's played plenty in his career, and get the same production?

Conley - Kai
ANT - DJJ
McDaniels - Green
KAT - Luka
Gobert - PJW


I really miss Maxi...

Im honestly hesitant right now putting PJ at the 5. We hadn't played with much of it and Minny has a lot of size 2-5 to punish that type of playstyle. It essentially turns our gameplan from attacking the paint to having to hit our 3s. 

If PJ/DJJ/THJ/Exum/Green all are hitting, then Minny will probably be blown out with that 5 out strategy, but are we willing to run that risk given how ice cold some of those guys have been?

[Smitty]

Im honestly hesitant right now putting PJ at the 5. We hadn't played with much of it and Minny has a lot of size 2-5 to punish that type of playstyle. It essentially turns our gameplan from attacking the paint to having to hit our 3s. 

If PJ/DJJ/THJ/Exum/Green all are hitting, then Minny will probably be blown out with that 5 out strategy, but are we willing to run that risk given how ice cold some of those guys have been?

I certainly get the point of keeping our size to match theirs. I just remember Maxi/Luka playing Gobert off the court with 5-out. It brings Gobert to the perimeter and offsets some of his rim protection and rebounding. I don't think it's something we do for half the game or anything, more of a wrinkle - especially if Gafford looks like he did in the previous two series... I don't think Lively can play 35+ minutes. PJ just gives you the 5-out element and another Gafford alternative at times.

But to your point, I love that we have two centers that can play vertically and protect the rim.

[dirkfansince1998]

Tim MacMahon (@espn_macmahon)
Luka Doncic re: Jaden McDaniels: “When you asked me about that top three, I forgot about McDaniels. I told you, some people are going to be pissed, but I forgot about him. But he's definitely in top three. He's been doing incredible defensively. He has long [arms], he can jump. So he's locked in, and it's going to be tough to go against him.”

I guess Luka is just like most of us and has 10-20 guys in his top 3s/5s.

[mvossman]

I guess Luka is just like most of us and has 10-20 guys in his top 3s/5s.

If we make it to the finals there are going to be more guys to add to the list.

[Knutsen]

Tim MacMahon (@espn_macmahon)
Luka Doncic re: Jaden McDaniels: “When you asked me about that top three, I forgot about McDaniels. I told you, some people are going to be pissed, but I forgot about him. But he's definitely in top three. He's been doing incredible defensively. He has long [arms], he can jump. So he's locked in, and it's going to be tough to go against him.”

I actually love this trait of Luka - giving maximum respect to the opposition off the basketball floor and then trying to kill them when the lights are on. Much better to show sportsmanship than giving them bulletin board material.

[Knutsen]

If we make it to the finals there are going to be more guys to add to the list.

Holiday‘s already one of the four names on his top three list, so he‘ll be fine!

[KillerLeft]

I actually love this trait of Luka - giving maximum respect to the opposition off the basketball floor and then trying to kill them when the lights are on. Much better to show sportsmanship than giving them bulletin board material.

Yeah man, his post game 7 interview on court conveyed class and maturity. I really liked how effusive he was with praise and respect for OKC's team. It seemed much more genuine to me than when most guys do it.

[ThisIStheYear]

Best I can tell, the vaunted Minny defense hasn’t really gone up against any real point guards. The Mavs have several. I’d like to see some 3 and 4 point guard lineups (counting Hardy).

[BolsDamols]

Legs is picking the Mavs, thats all I needed to hear



I'd say we buck the trend and win Game 1!

Well, well, well!

[SleepingHero]

https://x.com/cjzero/status/1793488027471458697

(@cjzero)
this is low key terrifying


Mavs need to find a way to pipe this into the Wolves locker room to throw them off for game 2.