The X-Factor Tim Hardaway Jr.: DAL to give long term extension?

[SportPsychMav]

Yeah hard for me think GM's opinions will change quick enough for it to really matter this year. 
Maybe if he has a hot playoffs he could be desirable to someone this summer as a one year rental. Especially paired with a pick or 2. 
Lee's expiring, Brunson and that GS pick will be how we get an upgrade this season

If he has a very good year, he will opt out in a bad free agency class I think.

[DanSchwartzgan]

https://twitter.com/bobbykaralla/status/...0872488960

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This is important perspective.  Many of us are looking at the "hot" streak of the last few games, but absent the first three games, Hardaway is producing his best season so far.  I've often said if we could just get the efficiency of his 16/17 season (the last one on Atlanta before he got the big $ from NY), then I'd be pretty happy.  He's there (in fact better if you remove those 3 games).  Carlisle has done a fantastic job finding the right role for him.  Here are some key metrics comparing 2019 to 16/17:

               2019    16/17
PER          15.0     15.2
WS/48      12.6     10.7
TS%         .569     .568   (Better at 3's, worse at 2's, but taking fewer of them)
3%           .387     .357   (Corner 3's are helping a ton)
Asst/100    3.7       4.2
TO/100     1.0       2.4    (Shows he's being asked to do less and with THJ, less is more)
PP/100      25.8     26.2

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Yeah hard for me think GM's opinions will change quick enough for it to really matter this year. 
Maybe if he has a hot playoffs he could be desirable to someone this summer as a one year rental. Especially paired with a pick or 2. 
Lee's expiring, Brunson and that GS pick will be how we get an upgrade this season

If he has a very good year, he will opt out in a bad free agency class I think.

Or, opt-in and extend...aka Powell.  Obviously hurts the 2021 pipe dream, but if the 2021 pipe dream is dead, there isn't any reason not to add Long Term salary now.

[SportPsychMav]

He plays smart and paced and excellent D.

[dirkfansince1998]

Ice cold shooting night but his onball defense made up for some of it. Started to chuck in garbage time and at least scored in the paint. I take one bad game for two good ones. We cannot expect him to go for 20 every night.
@"SportPsychMav" That´s what I mean when I say that he is a streaky shooter. Ice cold or super hot. Nothing inbetween.

[SportPsychMav]

He didn't chuck, he played really good.

[dirkfansince1998]

He didn't chuck, he played really good.

Rewatch the last 5 minutes or reread my post.

[StepBackJay]

Quiet game from THJ, at least offensively. I liked it when he passed up a shot for an easy assist to Powell I think? cutting to the basket. Defensively he looks pretty good to me.

[SportPsychMav]

Career night bump

[StepBackJay]

Loving catch and shoot THJ right now.

[dirkfansince1998]

We need him to be more consistent. Especially on the coming road trip against the east. He was 4/24 from 3 over the last 4 games and bounced back with a hot shooting night today. Summed up that makes 13/36 for 36% over the last five games. That´s slightly above league average.

[Kammrath]

Loving catch and shoot THJ right now.

[BigDirk41]

This would have sounded insane a month or two ago, but I really don't want to trade THJ anymore. Even his bad nights, he goes 2-6 or 2-8 with minimal turnovers. He's not having the 3-13 games anymore. He seems to know when to cut back on his shots now. Being in the starting lineup has really changed his efficiency. His ability to go for 20 plus is really big for our team.
Props to THJ and props to RC

[StepBackJay]

This would have sounded insane a month or two ago, but I really don't want to trade THJ anymore. Even his bad nights, he goes 2-6 or 2-8 with minimal turnovers. He's not having the 3-13 games anymore. He seems to know when to cut back on his shots now. Being in the starting lineup has really changed his efficiency. His ability to go for 20 plus is really big for our team.
Props to THJ and props to RC

I agree and it's not like you are going to get something better in return for THJ anyway. It's hilarious to me that the Knicks are like fine we'll give you Porzingis but we get DSJ AND you have to take THJ!! Oh and we'll take a couple 1st round picks that we're sure are going to be good in a couple of years! Take that! LOL Knicks. Uncle Ricky did his magic on THJ and now he's a starter on a top 5 team in the West.

If he does this all year he actually will have some value in the summer as a 1 year contract, plug-in shooter that could be used for some kind of trade.

[SportPsychMav]

Tim Hardaway Jr. has been the Mavericks starter for the last 10 games. Since then, he is putting up 17 points on 54.2/47.8/91.7 shooting splits.

u/quiteCryptic6h

[ItsGoTime]

Tim Hardaway Jr. has been the Mavericks starter for the last 10 games. Since then, he is putting up 17 points on 54.2/47.8/91.7 shooting splits.

u/quiteCryptic6h

The points are extremely inconsistent though. I guess I'll take the average as long as the team keeps winning like this though.

[SportPsychMav]

Tim Hardaway Jr. has been the Mavericks starter for the last 10 games. Since then, he is putting up 17 points on 54.2/47.8/91.7 shooting splits.

u/quiteCryptic6h

The points are extremely inconsistent though. I guess I'll take the average as long as the team keeps winning like this though.

It's not like he is playing out of the flow of the team or forcing shots when it isn't falling. He is moving the ball and plays great D. So his inconsistency isn't that much of a problem. 
If he would be consistent he would be a star. Right now he is an elite role player.


I'm too lazy to do it right now, but maybe someone wants to post the standard deviations of his averages.

[Scott41theMavs]

The metric that matters most to me (although it's wrongfully disparaged, imho, by many posters here), especially regarding defense, is real plus minus, of which I'm pretty sure ESPN is the only promulgator. But they wait until a certain point in the season to release it, not trusting the public to place the filter of "small sample size" until then, which I think is horsepoop. I think it's about 25 games in that they start to post it. I want to see what THJ's defensive impact is by that metric.

[ItsGoTime]

I'm too lazy to do it right now, but maybe someone wants to post the standard deviations of his averages.

In reverse order from last game (Sac) to ten games back (GSW):

29
14
7
12
8
26
8
31
16
20

[SportPsychMav]

I'm too lazy to do it right now, but maybe someone wants to post the standard deviations of his averages.

In reverse order from last game (Sac) to ten games back (GSW):

29
14
7
12
8
26
8
31
16
20

What are these numbers based of?

[dirkfansince1998]

I'm too lazy to do it right now, but maybe someone wants to post the standard deviations of his averages.

In reverse order from last game (Sac) to ten games back (GSW):

29
14
7
12
8
26
8
31
16
20

What are these numbers based of?

Points he scored in those games. THJ is not a player that can be relied on to score 15-20 points every game. He is on or off. On a hot night he cannot miss and carries a big offensive load. On an off night he barely hits the rim.
In 23 game he scored at above league average efficiency 8 times. Despite that his overall scoring efficiency is +2.4% rTS compared to the league average. His incredible peaks make up for a bigger amount of bad games.
THJs best games:

29pts / 112% TS against SAC
20pts / 109% TS against GSW
16pts / 100% TS against CLE

For comparisation...Lukas best TS% for a single game this season is 81%. He only was below 50% twice and above league average in 17/23 games.