Trade & FA 2023-24: Vezenkov+Kings Are Done

[mvossman]

Yep, there are a million what if's. None of them really matter that much, since who knows if ANY of them will happen. 

I'll add some more. What if a THJ giveaway can net a pick? What if DJJ will sign a TxMLE 1+1? What if Caruso is available in a THJ deal after all?... etc

To be clear, I was simply asking if those happened to be the choices, what would you prefer.  I realize we don't know what the set of choices would be.  Just a thought experiment.  If you could get a protected first for Gafford, would you do that instead of dumping Green for nothing?  Again, understanding that might not end up being the choices, but if it was where would you go?

Another hypothetical, if we can't engineer any acceptable salary trades, DJJ does indeed cost the full MLE and we have to give up the protected 25 to dump Timmy, would you send the pick, stretch Timmy or let DJJ walk?

I would suggest that your hypotheticals would all be no brainers from a Mavs perspective, which leads me to believe they are less likely.  Doesn't mean they can't happen, but when something seems too good to be true, it generally is.

[mvossman]

It is too bad all the Gafford talk drowned out my hot Wizards trade ideas post

Was that Kispert?

[Jason Terry]

OKC and Denver lost because they didn’t have enough size, length and depth. Mavs and Wolves advanced because they had more of everything

This is the way the West will be won going forward.

We need all of our depth for the grind. No need to mess with anything when we have all we need for the next two years of runs. PJ, Omax, Maxi, Lively, Gafford seems like just the right amount with the right mix of skills. We need to be able to play many different styles

Jones Jr is obviously key to everything. THJ will go even if we have to stretch waive him. We’re an NBA finals contender right now and next year with zero new moves. Not sure why so many are wanting to throw away picks or assets on anything

Gafford is only a luxury the day Lively’s max rookie scale extension kicks in. Until then we need to run Gafford into the ground and keep Lively and Maxi as healthy as possible for multiple potential runs

[F Gump]

I think the Mavs main goal in the summer needs to be signing DJJ. I said that long ago, concerned over the Mavs lack of spending room (and felt like I was on an island). Now after some good playoff games, he's the flavor of the day. A bad game or three and I may be alone again. But I will still be saying that re-signing DJJ needs to be their #1 goal this summer.

[KillerLeft]

I think the Mavs main goal in the summer needs to be signing DJJ. I said that long ago, concerned over the Mavs lack of spending room (and felt like I was on an island). Now after some good playoff games, he's the flavor of the day. A bad game or three and I may be alone again. But I will still be saying that re-signing DJJ needs to be their #1 goal this summer.

I have been aware of DJJ for a long while (lots of national guys thought he'd be a great fit here a few years back, when he was leaving Miami, so I started observing him then) and I fully admit I didn't know A) he was quite THIS good, defensively, or B) that he would be able to make himself enough of a factor on offense to stay on the floor when things mattered. 

I'm completely sold on A, and that's an understatement. No matter how hard I try to believe in B, I can't completely eradicate my skepticism, because he has a long track record of not really being playable, offensively. But, like I said the other day, the sample size of him being a legit shooting thread (legit ENOUGH, at least, when wide open) has gotten big enough to include an entire season and two playoff series, and when you combine that with his transition game and his slash/cutting game...yeah, he's the right guy. 

At this point, I think I'd want him back even if he laid an egg in this next series, but something tells me he won't. 

I'd say retaining him is of the utmost importance (if you saw that back when he was struggling even to find a toehold in this Dallas rotation, kudos to you!). What I'm not sure I quite understand is: how much will that cost? I mean, part of why we love him so much around here is that he has the exact, much-needed skillset to make this rotation work. I'm honestly unsure that as many teams will line up to use their precious cap space on him as we think, because I still believe he'll be looked at (in a vacuum) as a player with noticeable flaws. But, I'm getting close to believing that he's going to be worth the MLE to someone, especially if he continues to play THIS well on THIS big of a stage. That's a much bigger pool of teams to compete with.

I really hope they can sign him for the tax MLE range. That's a remuneration level at which I'm confident there's very little chance of buyer's remorse.

[KillerLeft]

OKC and Denver lost because they didn’t have enough size, length and depth. Mavs and Wolves advanced because they had more of everything

I don't agree with this, at least not in the way you mean. 

In the games I watched, Jokic KILLED the Wolves inside. Murdered them. MPJ is so long he doesn't even see contests on his shots (I saw him interviewed the other day, talking about just that). I'd take Aaron Gordon over ANY of the Wolves' bigs, especially after watching that series. 

I do think depending on Murray for all of your creation is a bit problematic, and that HE might be a little small for the way the league is heading, but that has nothing to do with arguing whether unskilled players matter just because they happen to be big. 

In the end, I think Denver lost because their bench was badly beaten by the Wolves' bench. 

And, I think there's very, very little chance that Gobert, KAT and Naz Reid (who is MUCH closer to Kleber, and much farther away from Gafford than I previously realized) will all be on the team for much longer, win or lose this season. 

I think it's INSANE to allocate that percentage of your resources to the big rotation, and if Kleber were healthy (to replace some of the center minutes, not play with one of them) I'd confidently pick the Mavs to advance. Like, I wouldn't even be worried. We've literally SEEN what Luka/Kleber can do to Gobert. It was ugly.

[KillerLeft]

I think that, at some point, be it in this series (if Kleber can come back) or the next one (ether Turner or Porzingis/Horford), Gobert will finally be forced to sit, and then we'll see exactly why you shouldn't care so much about that kind of "size."

We will see.

[KillerLeft]

I'll add one more thing, and I'm happy to be wrong:

The Mavs, despite adding all of this size that everyone is so excited about with Gafford, are about to get killed on the glass in this series. Giving all of the non-Lively minutes to Gafford is EXACTLY what the Wolves and Gobert want. It's playing right into their hands. The Mavs don't have any other choice, unfortunately, but if they lose this series I'll always wonder what might've been if that Kleber/Washington lineup, which I believe is their best this year, was available. Nothing makes me happier than to see big, slow guys try to defend 4 different areas of the court on one possession.

[Jakeospikez]

Gobert on the current Wolves team is nothing like what he was doing for the Jazz. He has Ant and McDaniels as defenders you have to get by instead of Donovan Mitchell & Bojan/Royce O'Neale. He's guarding on the perimeter a lot now. They made the all in trade for a reason and they're in the WCF and are clear favorites. They don't have to break the big unit up at all. Their defense is just fine, #1 in the league. There's plenty of 5 out teams out there, it's not an instant win over non shooting centers. Dunks/layups are better than 3s and preventing dunks/layups is more important than 3pt defense. What holds them back is Rudy's offense not his defense. The Nuggets are one of the best 5 out teams in the entire league and they just beat them, then the goal posts are moved and blame the bench I guess.

There's definitely some anti-Gafford bias that's not just DJJ related. I would like to see what players are out there that are cheaper than Gafford that would fill in the backup big role just fine. How much cheaper? Lets say under $10mil/year then. Zubac is making slightly less but he should be getting a new deal soon and will probably make more then. Not sure there's any legit non-rookie scale player making under $10 mil that is anywhere near Gafford. Hartenstein/Claxton are under $10mil and comparable but they're expiring and about to get paid. Under $10m will mostly get you someone like Theis or Plumlee, guys who aren't anywhere near Gafford's level.
Really bold take to say Clint F'n Capela is better than Gafford. That is straight up... I won't even say all the words that should be used to describe that. Gafford is lightyears ahead as an offensive player and way more athletic. I think there's definitely some recency bias with Gafford and I don't think the regular season dominance can be ignored at all. He's been battling injuries since a little before the playoffs started. He is frequently blocking shots near the top of the backboard and was scoring any and everything once he got the ball near the basket. Can see how he is next year before giving up on him.

edit* decent comparison salary wise -> Kelly Olynyk. If those guys are matched up Gafford is probably gonna be near 100% fg%. Gafford all day not really a difficult choice to me.

[mvossman]

Gobert on the current Wolves team is nothing like what he was doing for the Jazz. He has Ant and McDaniels as defenders you have to get by instead of Donovan Mitchell & Bojan/Royce O'Neale. He's guarding on the perimeter a lot now. They made the all in trade for a reason and they're in the WCF and are clear favorites. They don't have to break the big unit up at all. Their defense is just fine, #1 in the league. There's plenty of 5 out teams out there, it's not an instant win over non shooting centers. Dunks/layups are better than 3s and preventing dunks/layups is more important than 3pt defense. What holds them back is Rudy's offense not his defense. The Nuggets are one of the best 5 out teams in the entire league and they just beat them, then the goal posts are moved and blame the bench I guess.

There's definitely some anti-Gafford bias that's not just DJJ related. I would like to see what players are out there that are cheaper than Gafford that would fill in the backup big role just fine. How much cheaper? Lets say under $10mil/year then. Zubac is making slightly less but he should be getting a new deal soon and will probably make more then. Not sure there's any legit non-rookie scale player making under $10 mil that is anywhere near Gafford. Hartenstein/Claxton are under $10mil and comparable but they're expiring and about to get paid. Under $10m will mostly get you someone like Theis or Plumlee, guys who aren't anywhere near Gafford's level.
Really bold take to say Clint F'n Capela is better than Gafford. That is straight up... I won't even say all the words that should be used to describe that. Gafford is lightyears ahead as an offensive player and way more athletic. I think there's definitely some recency bias with Gafford and I don't think the regular season dominance can be ignored at all. He's been battling injuries since a little before the playoffs started. He is frequently blocking shots near the top of the backboard and was scoring any and everything once he got the ball near the basket. Can see how he is next year before giving up on him.

edit* decent comparison salary wise -> Kelly Olynyk. If those guys are matched up Gafford is probably gonna be near 100% fg%. Gafford all day not really a difficult choice to me.

I feel like this is kind of missing the point.  The thought was that Lively will be a 30 minute a game starter, we have a backup center who is very valuable in the playoffs (Maxi) and we need to clear space.  The idea was that Gafford was over qualified to be a backup center and that potentially we could get an asset back for him while making room for DJJ.  This would be instead of sending out a significant asset to dump Timmy.  The argument has never been that Gafford is not worth his salary.

Also, is there a story out that I missed that Gafford is injured?  You have mentioned that a couple of times, but I have not seen that anywhere else.

[Jakeospikez]

Nah it was definitely stated that there would be minimal drop off going to a cheaper big. Even then, so you drop Gafford and play with fire hoping Lively + Maxi are healthy for an entire regular season? If Lively is out, now you have to start Maxi who is not suited to play 30+ min games, let alone b2bs. Some backup Bismack Biyombo type dude is gonna come in and hold the fort? The Powell suggestion... just no. I'd rather not go back to the time when the team had literally no rim protection.

Gafford has been down on the ground unable to get up, then having to go to the locker room at least 5+ times over the past couple months, I doubt he's 100%. There's no official injury designation on the report.

[KillerLeft]

Nah it was definitely stated that there would be minimal drop off going to a cheaper big.

Nah, it definitely wasn't.

[Jakeospikez]

Well I actually am interested to hear what the potential cost effective alternative solutions to Gafford are. The Kleber 3&D small ball 5 archetype is actually really rare and I don't think teams are looking to get rid of them.

[KillerLeft]

Well I actually am interested to hear what the potential cost effective alternative solutions to Gafford are. The Kleber 3&D small ball 5 archetype is actually really rare and I don't think teams are looking to get rid of them.

I agree with that! 

I’m shutting down my Gafford takes for the rest of this round, at least, to get a better sense of things. But, try to see everything I wrote today in terms of being pro-Lively, rather than anti-Gafford. that’s how it was all intended.

[GATA]

Kispert on this team is a championship. He would be our best shooter, is extremely strong, and an adequate defender.

[RGP1981]

I’m shutting down my Gafford takes for the rest of this round

Gafford-hater... tsk, tsk.

[Branduil]

Ideally the Mavs will find a way to pay DJJ MLE money, I think he definitely stays if they do. (I certainly hope no team would be dumb enough to offer him Bruce Brown money after we saw how that worked out)

[F Gump]

The Mavs, despite adding all of this size that everyone is so excited about with Gafford, are about to get killed on the glass in this series.

 
Duly noted.

Let me add - my major area of disagreement with your thoughts is that that I think you completely fail to credit the importance of Gafford to both the Mavs in general, and also to Lively. I'm seeing a Mavs team that overall is now turning games into a war, and wear down the opponent. Even one as big as Minny. It's a different style but one in which the net effect works in the playoffs (think Miami, as a good example), where there are fewer whistles, and it also complements Luka's ability to be a physical force on offense and consistently create half-court offense when games are in grind-it-out mode.

Gafford is more physical than Lively, which you see as a negative, but I think that it instead is a positive, and not just while Gafford is on the floor but for the full 48 minutes. The physicality of Gafford, banging on the opponent big men when Lively is not in the game, softens them up. How long have we been wishing for a physical presence? If you take Gafford out of the equation, there is no longer the same 48-minute grind wearing down the other team. What you see as easily dispensible, replaceable, and an unneeded luxury is something I believe is integral to the overall product and priced reasonably.

In addition, I think your mindset that Gafford is somehow holding Lively back is the opposite of the truth. Not only does Gafford's play make Lively's more effective, it also allows Lively to play with more freedom (fouls), with more than enough talent on deck should either have issues with fouls or injury. Minutes can be adjusted as needed. I agree that Lively is the better and more impactful center, but part of what is making him that good is the ability to spell him and help him with Gafford as needed. And Gafford hasn't even been through camp with the team, which is a path to even bigger things for team-player, and is young enough to grow his game as well.

As for where Kleber fits, it's hard to depend on him, but he's a great piece when he's healthy. His versatility is valuable, as a potential change-of-pace center when one might be needed, but also a great solution to spell PJW at PF. But all of that works way better when there is plenty of talent to man C in a strong way without him (which is Gafford, not Powell!). If only he can be healthy.

[F Gump]

Kispert on this team is a championship.  He would be our best shooter, is extremely strong, and an adequate defender.

Kispert is an interesting idea, but there are 2 obstacles that are likely insurmountable:
1 The main one is that WAS probably sees him as a keeper and not interested in trading him.
2 Also, WAS's other obligations and expected priorities will have them over the cap, so the type of trade DAL needs to open up spending room for DJJ (such as THJ-for-Kispert or Green-for-Kispert) won't be legal.

[surfpuckmd]

I agree with all of those who say keeping DJJ is our most important priority this coming summer.  I was a DJJ champion this past offseason but I did not anticipate he would become a starter or a playoff hero.  He is now an integral part of our success.  

I think trading Gafford is crazy as he's literally a starter on a team in the Western Conference semifinals.  He may have struggled in the playoffs but he was terrific in the regular season for us.  I also want to keep Maxi because he's again showed what an outstanding contributor he can be in a playoff series. 

That leaves THJ as the obvious guy to send elsewhere to clear some salary cap.

I think the Hornets would be a good home for THJ and his veteran leadership.

I suggest the following trade:  THJ to the Hornets i.e. for Vasilije Micic and their 2nd round pick (#42 overall).  Micic has two years left on his deal but it's split over two seasons so it would save us around $8 million in cap space this coming summer.  The 42nd pick would receive a fairly low contract of around $1.4 million per year which I believe would also save us some money relative to a vet minimum veteran.  I don't understand how everyone calculates salary cap machinations but I believe these moves would allow us to offer DJJ something between $9 and 10 million per year this off-season.  I think that is a number that might possibly allow us to keep him.

Micic would slot in as a useful 3rd point guard if Kyrie or Luka isn't available.    

We would need Hardy to become our top bench scorer in this scenario.  

I believe this would free up enough money to bring back DJJ.  Especially on a 1 plus 1 deal with the 2nd-year being a player option.  

Please get this post to Nico and Dennis Lindsay.  Thank you for your service.