Trade & FA 2023-24: HOU Targeting Mikal Bridges again!| Mitchell is LAL #1 Target

[HoosierDaddyKidd]

Celtics were losing big, but came back to make it a close loss, 127-123. OKC looks impressive. SGA looks like 1st team All NBA to me.

[RGP1981]

This team only has 1 win against the current Top 4 teams in each conference.

That 1 win came against the LA Clippers, while they were still figuring out their rotation after trading for Harden.

That 1 was was soon followed by 2 losses against the LA Clippers.

[Winter]

I thought this was odd...

"...after the Toronto Raptors traded OG Anunoby to end 2023, all eyes are now on Pascal Siakam as the next man to be traded. Siakam has already been linked to several teams who are interested in acquiring the All-Star forward. In the latest odds brought by BetOnline, the Dallas Mavericks emerged as the betting favorite to land Siakam from the Raptors to pair with Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. BetOnline has the Mavs at +200 to become Siakam’s next team, should Toronto trade him prior to the February 8 deadline. "

I'm not sure why Dallas has suddenly leapfrogged teams to be the betting favorite or even whether this is actually Las Vegas odds. I don't know anything about "BetOnline". If true, it would likely mean something has changed at the margins.

[DanSchwartzgan]

I thought this was odd...

"...after the Toronto Raptors traded OG Anunoby to end 2023, all eyes are now on Pascal Siakam as the next man to be traded. Siakam has already been linked to several teams who are interested in acquiring the All-Star forward. In the latest odds brought by BetOnline, the Dallas Mavericks emerged as the betting favorite to land Siakam from the Raptors to pair with Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving.  BetOnline has the Mavs at +200 to become Siakam’s next team, should Toronto trade him prior to the February 8 deadline. "

I'm not sure why Dallas has suddenly leapfrogged teams to be the betting favorite or even whether this is actually Las Vegas odds. I don't know anything about "BetOnline". If true, it would likely mean something has changed at the margins.

That is interesting.  Once 12/30 passed, the opportunity for the acquiring team to extend him six months after the trade (but before free agency) went away.  That changed the calculus on what teams would likely pay.  Many of the deals that might have included young players from Atlanta or Indiana are too risky without a path to avoid free agency.

I heard one commentator out of Toronto call Michael Grange of Sportsnet a 'mouthpiece for the team'.  He's the one who named Dallas, Atlanta and Indy as the teams most likely to pursue.  As soon as he put Dallas on his list, Stein (with strong connections in Dallas) tapped the brakes (but didn't deny it) by saying the interest from Dallas is overstated.

Behind Dallas at +200 is Memphis at +300 followed by Atlanta and Indy at +500 followed by Sacramento and Philly. It takes real salaries to match Siakam at $37mm.  Philly gets there with expiring veterans (probably not what Toronto wants).  Sacramento doesn't really make sense next to Sabonis.  Indy does make sense next to Turner, but probably doesn't help Toronto unless they are willing to give up a prized youngster (too much flight risk for that).  Atlanta, Memphis and Dallas have real NBA players they can include in a deal (which seems to be Toronto's preference) without destroying their roster.  To me, the most likely places Siakam would stay if traded there are Philly and Dallas, so I think the odds do make some sense.

[omahen]

That is interesting.  Once 12/30 passed, the opportunity for the acquiring team to extend him six months after the trade (but before free agency) went away.  That changed the calculus on what teams would likely pay.  Many of the deals that might have included young players from Atlanta or Indiana are too risky without a path to avoid free agency.

I heard one commentator out of Toronto call Michael Grange of Sportsnet a 'mouthpiece for the team'.  He's the one who named Dallas, Atlanta and Indy as the teams most likely to pursue.  As soon as he put Dallas on his list, Stein (with strong connections in Dallas) tapped the brakes (but didn't deny it) by saying the interest from Dallas is overstated.

Behind Dallas at +200 is Memphis at +300 followed by Atlanta and Indy at +500 followed by Sacramento and Philly. It takes real salaries to match Siakam at $37mm.  Philly gets there with expiring veterans (probably not what Toronto wants).  Sacramento doesn't really make sense next to Sabonis.  Indy does make sense next to Turner, but probably doesn't help Toronto unless they are willing to give up a prized youngster (too much flight risk for that).  Atlanta, Memphis and Dallas have real NBA players they can include in a deal (which seems to be Toronto's preference) without destroying their roster.  To me, the most likely places Siakam would stay if traded there are Philly and Dallas, so I think the odds do make some sense.

Good post. Only a comment about Memphis. I don't think they would touch their core of Morant, JJJ, Smart and Bane for such a deal. Perhaps, but I don't think it is very likely, Smart. Other than that their contracts are Kennard, Adams and Clarke. I don't think Toronto would have any need for Adams or Clarke. Kennard is meh, basically expiring contract. Their rookies are also really nothing special. So I think Mavs can make more interesting offer.

[Winter]

It's possible that the Mavs new management has recently greenlighted the idea in the last day or two. In which case, the Mavericks odds get a significant boost.

Good posts above about other teams' needs.

[DallasMaverick]

That is interesting.  Once 12/30 passed, the opportunity for the acquiring team to extend him six months after the trade (but before free agency) went away.  That changed the calculus on what teams would likely pay.  Many of the deals that might have included young players from Atlanta or Indiana are too risky without a path to avoid free agency.

I heard one commentator out of Toronto call Michael Grange of Sportsnet a 'mouthpiece for the team'.  He's the one who named Dallas, Atlanta and Indy as the teams most likely to pursue.  As soon as he put Dallas on his list, Stein (with strong connections in Dallas) tapped the brakes (but didn't deny it) by saying the interest from Dallas is overstated.

Behind Dallas at +200 is Memphis at +300 followed by Atlanta and Indy at +500 followed by Sacramento and Philly. It takes real salaries to match Siakam at $37mm.  Philly gets there with expiring veterans (probably not what Toronto wants).  Sacramento doesn't really make sense next to Sabonis.  Indy does make sense next to Turner, but probably doesn't help Toronto unless they are willing to give up a prized youngster (too much flight risk for that).  Atlanta, Memphis and Dallas have real NBA players they can include in a deal (which seems to be Toronto's preference) without destroying their roster.  To me, the most likely places Siakam would stay if traded there are Philly and Dallas, so I think the odds do make some sense.

I've been skeptical on Siakam for a couple of reasons:

1. Play-style fit in Dallas, and
2. Contractual fit

After looking at his stats and play - he really is a stud.  His 3-point shooting has been up and down from year to year, but he's had some good ones in there.  My guess is that he'll have more open looks than at any time in the past playing with Luka and Kyrie.

Solid defender.  Shares the ball. Creates his own shot when needed. Rebounds well.

He's 29, right in his prime.  His timeline fits with a win-now philosophy, much like Kyrie.

Yeah, he'll probably command a $40m-plus salary. In the same range as Luka and Kyrie, which will mean we'll likely lose DJJ, Seth, and probably Exum, plus whichever players we send in trade.

But Toronto's leverage has significantly decreased, as pointed out by Dr. Dan, so the assets required might be less than we think.  THJ, Maxi, and Holmes for Siakam?  No draft picks?

[Knutsen]

I've been skeptical on Siakam for a couple of reasons:

1. Play-style fit in Dallas, and
2. Contractual fit

After looking at his stats and play - he really is a stud.  His 3-point shooting has been up and down from year to year, but he's had some good ones in there.  My guess is that he'll have more open looks than at any time in the past playing with Luka and Kyrie.

Solid defender.  Shares the ball. Creates his own shot when needed. Rebounds well.

He's 29, right in his prime.  His timeline fits with a win-now philosophy, much like Kyrie.

Yeah, he'll probably command a $40m-plus salary. In the same range as Luka and Kyrie, which will mean we'll likely lose DJJ, Seth, and probably Exum, plus whichever players we send in trade.

But Toronto's leverage has significantly decreased, as pointed out by Dr. Dan, so the assets required might be less than we think.  THJ, Maxi, and Holmes for Siakam?  No draft picks?

Not sure we‘d lose any of the players you mentioned, at least not until 2025. 
Exum and Curry are signed for another year at a very reasonable price and DJJ could perhaps be kept long term using our mid level exception.

[DanSchwartzgan]

Yeah, he'll probably command a $40m-plus salary. In the same range as Luka and Kyrie, which will mean we'll likely lose DJJ, Seth, and probably Exum, plus whichever players we send in trade.
 

If the deal is as reported (Holmes, THJ and Green), that is $41.5mm of 24/25 salary.  So, anything up to that amount is a wash (other than having to add at least one salary to be at 14).  Also, Exum is signed for next year.  So, the risk is DJJ (which has always been the case).

[omahen]

  THJ, Maxi, and Holmes for Siakam?  No draft picks?

I think our offer would have to be way more substantial. Maxi almost didn't play and has a long injury history, while he has two more years on his deal after this season. It was also a long time ago since good Maxi was seen. I don't think you can make an argument he is a positive contract. Holmes was a negative contract when Mavs traded for him and he remains such. Maxi and Holmes are basically a 20 mil burden for Toronto for next season. THJ has a good season and could be seen as neutral value or perhaps even positive contract. But not to an extent to offset the negative value of the other two deals. Toronto would still be giving up by far the best player in the deal.

Toronto might have shown interest in Green in the past, but his on court performance doesn't really make his signed deal look like a great bargain. Even if Toronto thinks they can get more out of him, the valuation would be done based on current performances. 

That is why I think a FRP would need to be included. Personally, I don't have a problem with it, as long as Siakam resigns in the summer. If he doesn't, it would be just a failed move by Mavs, no matter what assets or contracts are included. Unless they win it all this season, of course.

[DallasMaverick]

If the deal is as reported (Holmes, THJ and Green), that is $41.5mm of 24/25 salary.  So, anything up to that amount is a wash (other than having to add at least one salary to be at 14).  Also, Exum is signed for next year.  So, the risk is DJJ (which has always been the case).

I’m looking down the road at ‘25 and thinking it will be hard to re-sign Exum at his market salary, based on this year’s performance.

[omahen]

I’m looking down the road at ‘25 and thinking it will be hard to re-sign Exum at his market salary, based on this year’s performance.

Mavs can always spend more money. Their payroll is still way lower than payrolls of any of the contenders, other than OKC, where most of the guys are still on rookie deals.

[DallasMaverick]

I think our offer would have to be way more substantial. Maxi almost didn't play and has a long injury history, while he has two more years on his deal after this season. It was also a long time ago since good Maxi was seen. I don't think you can make an argument he is a positive contract. Holmes was a negative contract when Mavs traded for him and he remains such. Maxi and Holmes are basically a 20 mil burden for Toronto for next season. THJ has a good season and could be seen as neutral value or perhaps even positive contract. But not to an extent to offset the negative value of the other two deals. Toronto would still be giving up by far the best player in the deal.

Toronto might have shown interest in Green in the past, but his on court performance doesn't really make his signed deal look like a great bargain. Even if Toronto thinks they can get more out of him, the valuation would be done based on current performances. 

That is why I think a FRP would need to be included. Personally, I don't have a problem with it, as long as Siakam resigns in the summer. If he doesn't, it would be just a failed move by Mavs, no matter what assets or contracts are included. Unless they win it all this season, of course.

Most of us amateur GMs tend to make similar mistakes:

1. Over-value one of our players based on future potential (we’ve seen flashes).
2. Under-value one of our players based on current bad performance (just observe this board after a loss!)

Likewise, we misjudge other teams’ players:

1. Over-value a player based on what he might become in our system, with the role we can provide him.
2. Under-value a player based on fit, current performance, age, or value relative to contract.

Holmes is a scratched-off lottery ticket at this point. We had hopes that he might be something different in our system, but he isn’t. That doesn’t mean some other GM might see some flashes to entice him, but odds are slim. Remember when THJ was the bad contract we had to swallow in order to get Porzingis? But now he’s a positive.

I’m thinking Maxi and Green, and maybe Hardy all fall into that category. Both have shown flashes. Both have potential upside that could entice another GM. Is it enough, without throwing in picks? I’d have never expected that OG would have gone as cheaply as he did.

[Nowitzki Way]

We can argue all day about the fit with Siakam and the Mavs. But i personally think he's the prototype of what this team is missing.  The big issue is cost.  i don't see us having the best offer if we're only giving up dead weight like Holmes and/or Maxi to go along with THJ.

Even though the extension deadline passed, he is going to cost us assets we're going to lose sleep over.

If we get Siakam, be prepared to lose a 1st rounder along with a combination of O-Max, Hardy, and Green. We may be able to offload Holmes or Maxi as salary filler.  Could end up being THJ (re-routed somewhere else).

I think we should also look at who could be coming back with Siakam. Can we prey away Jalen McDaniels or Christian Koloko?  Boucher? Or do we get stuck with one or two of their expirings like Porter Jr. or Thad Young.

[mvossman]

We can argue all day about the fit with Siakam and the Mavs. But i personally think he's the prototype of what this team is missing.  The big issue is cost.  i don't see us having the best offer if we're only giving up dead weight like Holmes and/or Maxi to go along with THJ.

Even though the extension deadline passed, he is going to cost us assets we're going to lose sleep over.

If we get Siakam, be prepared to lose a 1st rounder along with a combination of O-Max, Hardy, and Green. We may be able to offload Holmes or Maxi as salary filler.  Could end up being THJ (re-routed somewhere else).

I think we should also look at who could be coming back with Siakam. Can we prey away Jalen McDaniels or Christian Koloko?  Boucher? Or do we get stuck with one or two of their expirings like Porter Jr. or Thad Young.

Yep.  I think its going to be more painful than what is being proposed.  I don't see Maxi in the deal because his contract is too long.  Likely Timmy, Holmes and kids (plus pick).  Might include GWill as well.

[Winter]

I wonder about new ownership and the eagerness to get something done here. Yes, it may be more expensive with a pick included, but I can more easily imagine "yes" to a FO when new management is in place. However, I also agree with NW that a creative addition of a big man in the trade makes it more palatable. I know nothing about Boucher, but I think a veteran is preferable over someone like Koloko.

[surfpuckmd]

Most of us amateur GMs tend to make similar mistakes:

1. Over-value one of our players based on future potential (we’ve seen flashes).
2. Under-value one of our players based on current bad performance (just observe this board after a loss!)

Likewise, we misjudge other teams’ players:

1. Over-value a player based on what he might become in our system, with the role we can provide him.
2. Under-value a player based on fit, current performance, age, or value relative to contract.

Holmes is a scratched-off lottery ticket at this point. We had hopes that he might be something different in our system, but he isn’t. That doesn’t mean some other GM might see some flashes to entice him, but odds are slim. Remember when THJ was the bad contract we had to swallow in order to get Porzingis? But now he’s a positive.

I’m thinking Maxi and Green, and maybe Hardy all fall into that category. Both have shown flashes. Both have potential upside that could entice another GM. Is it enough, without throwing in picks? I’d have never expected that OG would have gone as cheaply as he did.

Good post.  I like the scratched off lottery ticket analogy.  Unfortunately, I think it applies not only to Holmes but maybe Jaden Hardy as well.  Maxi might be a burnt lottery ticket at this point.

[KillerLeft]

Likely Timmy, Holmes and kids (plus pick).  Might include GWill as well.

Frankly, if they trade for a 4, it probably SHOULD include Williams. That would be doing the Mavs a favor. 

I would try to keep Holmes (an interesting expiring contract next year) out of it and do THJ, Williams, Green, Hardy, '27. Or, even better, keep Hardaway and put Holmes in. Either way. Or, screw it, include them both, but please move Williams in the deal for a 4. 

Just please, please KEEP O-MAX.

[surfpuckmd]

Celtics were losing big, but came back to make it a close loss, 127-123. OKC looks impressive. SGA looks like 1st team All NBA to me.

I've been watching a lot of Thunder games on league pass.  They're really dynamic and fun to watch.

SGA is one of the 3 best players in the NBA this season along with Embiid and Jokic.  He has become a great defensive player as well and I think is in the top-3 in defensive EPM.  He is still an elite offensive player.  He's been even better than Luka this year due to the vastly superior defense.  

Chet is having the most impactful rookie season maybe since Tim Duncan and is a future MVP candidate.  

Cason Wallace is going to be a star role player in a few years as well.  Somewhere between Jrue Holiday and Derrick White or imagine prime Danny Green with some handles.  

That team will contend for the next 7 years unless there's a major injury.   It's shocking how much young talent they have and the draft stock they hold.

[KillerLeft]

Saw something on Twitter and my instinct was to dismiss it, but I think it's at least worth considering, especially since he really hasn't had a good game yet this season...

What about a three-way where Kyrie goes somewhere and Siakam (or Markannen, or any other big name available) comes here?

Any interest in that here? Do we think there's a team who'd want Kyrie badly enough to pitch in on that deal?