Trade & FA 2024-25:

[SleepingHero]

Was toying with the idea around Klay Thompson.

Lots of billowing smoke that the Warriors aren't super motivated to meet his demands. ORL has cooled down a bit.

Latest rumor here:

NBACentral (@TheDunkCentral)
The Golden State Warriors have yet to offer Klay Thompson a contract, and it’s becoming increasingly likely that he could leave Golden State in free agency, per @anthonyVslater

“Talks are essentially frozen. With free agency now less than 10 days away, Thompson’s exit from the only franchise he has ever known feels closer and more probable than ever before.”


Anyways, the little tidbits for Klay has been he wants a higher contract than 2/48 (which is what the Warriors offered last year), and he wants at least a 3 year deal. If you're the Mavs, would you try and do a SnT of THJ+Powell+2025 to GSW for Klay where Klay signs a 4 year, 86 mil deal that starts at 20mil? Its a 100% trade match there for both teams. THJ+Powell are 20,193,183. That's how much Klay signs for his deal. GSW remains ever so slightly competitive with a clear defined role for THJ and they get a Looney replacement big.

Mavs can then go to Portland and trade Green for Thybulle. They'd be about 6.5 million under apron 1, which is enough cushion for a DJJ TP-MLE and a 2nd round draft pick being paid 1.1 mil to round out the roster.


I actually really love this roster. I think Klay's shooting opens up an entirely new dimension for this team. We've basically got a better version THJ (like all-time better version) on offense, and a better version of Green on defense.

Of course each dollar they can get for Klay to sign less means a lot. And this hinges on DJJ re-upping for a smaller amount than most think he'd sign for. If DJJ is adamant on resigning only for the full MLE, we'd have to cut bait on Maxi for a guy making less than 3 mil. Maybe to Philly for Batum making around BAE money?


Luka/Hardy/Exum
Kyrie/Thybulle
Klay/DJJ/#58 2nd round draft pick
PJ/Batum/Omax/Morris
Gafford/Lively

[DanSchwartzgan]

Some pertinent details

1 Other than trade kickers paid, post-season trades in June do not impact a team's tax, as tax numbers are already determined, as of the last day of the regular season.   Thank you.  This is helpful information to know.


2 If you are not hard-capped at Apron 1, you do not have to do things to stay under that number.  This has been my working assumption, but good to have it confirmed.


3 "You do THJ/Maxi for Grant in 23/24. ".....THJ-Maxi for Grant in 23-24 is more than 100% for DAL (and oddly, for POR too) so it creates a hard cap.  This is what I was asking about the other day.  I found a Bobby Marks video from two months ago.  He details that as soon as the season is over, even teams under the apron can't "take back more money in a trade" or they will be hard-capped in the new season.  In fact, they can't do any of the things that will get you hard capped in the new season once the old season ends unless they find a way to stay under the apron in the new season.

He also talks about how the league looks ahead at your finances to the new season.  What wasn't plain from the video was the situation where a trade didn't take back more money in the current (just finished season).  I was trying to frame the THJ/Maxi deal as "not" taking back more money because it isn't "in June".  Grant makes more in 24/25 because his salary goes up while THJ's goes down.  What you are saying is the league applies the standard in both time frames.  You can't take back more money using salaries for both the old NBA year or the new NBA year.  Mark's didn't address that.


4 Obtaining a 2024 2nd rounder has the potential to help on the salary front, but is only useful if there's a player you can get that is actually worth having on your roster. If not, your roster is effectively only 13, which is problematic if you also lack the ability to spend and add when injuries occur.  I was actually trying to make the second rounder the 15th player as I intended to use the TP MLE for the 14th player because I thought I had found a trick to keep from getting hard capped.

Thanks for your help in clarifying these items.


 

[mvossman]

Was toying with the idea around Klay Thompson.

Lots of billowing smoke that the Warriors aren't super motivated to meet his demands. ORL has cooled down a bit.

Latest rumor here:

NBACentral (@TheDunkCentral)
The Golden State Warriors have yet to offer Klay Thompson a contract, and it’s becoming increasingly likely that he could leave Golden State in free agency, per @anthonyVslater

“Talks are essentially frozen. With free agency now less than 10 days away, Thompson’s exit from the only franchise he has ever known feels closer and more probable than ever before.”


Anyways, the little tidbits for Klay has been he wants a higher contract than 2/48 (which is what the Warriors offered last year), and he wants at least a 3 year deal. If you're the Mavs, would you try and do a SnT of THJ+Powell+2025 to GSW for Klay where Klay signs a 4 year, 86 mil deal that starts at 20mil? Its a 100% trade match there for both teams. THJ+Powell are 20,193,183. That's how much Klay signs for his deal. GSW remains ever so slightly competitive with a clear defined role for THJ and they get a Looney replacement big.

Mavs can then go to Portland and trade Green for Thybulle. They'd be about 6.5 million under apron 1, which is enough cushion for a DJJ TP-MLE and a 2nd round draft pick being paid 1.1 mil to round out the roster.


I actually really love this roster. I think Klay's shooting opens up an entirely new dimension for this team. We've basically got a better version THJ (like all-time better version) on offense, and a better version of Green on defense.

Of course each dollar they can get for Klay to sign less means a lot. And this hinges on DJJ re-upping for a smaller amount than most think he'd sign for. If DJJ is adamant on resigning only for the full MLE, we'd have to cut bait on Maxi for a guy making less than 3 mil. Maybe to Philly for Batum making around BAE money?


Luka/Hardy/Exum
Kyrie/Thybulle
Klay/DJJ/#58 2nd round draft pick
PJ/Batum/Omax/Morris
Gafford/Lively

I'm not sure Klay is any better at defense than Green at this point, and he is definitely a significant downgrade from DJJ.  He is not the same player after that achillis, and he is 34.  Giving out a 90 mil contract and a first for somebody that old who has already started his decline seems like a panic move to me.  There is a real chance that contract is terrible in his first year.  Its going to be really hard to get behind giving a guy in his mid 30s a 4 year contract.  Doesn't seem like that is a direction this FO had been heading, especially with Cuban out.

[F Gump]

3 "You do THJ/Maxi for Grant in 23/24. ".....THJ-Maxi for Grant in 23-24 is more than 100% for DAL (and oddly, for POR too) so it creates a hard cap.  This is what I was asking about the other day.  I found a Bobby Marks video from two months ago.  He details that as soon as the season is over, even teams under the apron can't "take back more money in a trade" or they will be hard-capped in the new season.  In fact, they can't do any of the things that will get you hard capped in the new season once the old season ends unless they find a way to stay under the apron in the new season.

He also talks about how the league looks ahead at your finances to the new season.  What wasn't plain from the video was the situation where a trade didn't take back more money in the current (just finished season).  I was trying to frame the THJ/Maxi deal as "not" taking back more money because it isn't "in June".  Grant makes more in 24/25 because his salary goes up while THJ's goes down.  What you are saying is the league applies the standard in both time frames.  You can't take back more money using salaries for both the old NBA year or the new NBA year.  Mark's didn't address that.


4 Obtaining a 2024 2nd rounder has the potential to help on the salary front, but is only useful if there's a player you can get that is actually worth having on your roster. If not, your roster is effectively only 13, which is problematic if you also lack the ability to spend and add when injuries occur.  I was actually trying to make the second rounder the 15th player as I intended to use the TP MLE for the 14th player because I thought I had found a trick to keep from getting hard capped.

-----------------

ITEM 3
if I understand your point here, you have come to the wrong conclusion in applying what I said.

The Marks info is correct. If you do something in June that is a trigger for a hard cap, then that hard cap will continue to apply to the end of the following season (in this case, to June 30, 2025).

But there is no "both time frames" rule when a salary match is calculated. It simply is what it is, on that trade day. The reason "THJ/Maxi for Grant in 23/24" would require a >100% match for DAL (and for POR too, fwiw) is that in June, the Mavs outgoing salary total would be less than what they take back. THJ's salary credit applied (TPE) is not normal in a June trade because he's on a declining contract -- and it's a different number used for DAL than for POR.

ITEM 4
If you don't have a hard cap, then there's no salary-difference value in a 2nd rounder (except it saves Dumont some salary and tax). With no hard cap, you can sail past Apron 1 and then some, and can use whatever exceptions you have (minimums and TxMLE), just so long as you don't exceed Apron 2.

[DanSchwartzgan]

 
ITEM 3
if I understand your point here, you have come to the wrong conclusion in applying what I said.

The Marks info is correct. If you do something in June that is a trigger for a hard cap, then that hard cap will continue to apply to the end of the following season (in this case, to June 30, 2025).

But there is no "both time frames" rule when a salary match is calculated. It simply is what it is, on that trade day. The reason "THJ/Maxi for Grant in 23/24" would require a >100% match for DAL (and for POR too, fwiw) is that in June, the Mavs outgoing salary total would be less than what they take back. THJ's salary credit applied (TPE) is not normal in a June trade because he's on a declining contract -- and it's a different number used for DAL than for POR.
 

The bolded info is exactly what I've been looking for.  Thank you!

[Smitty]

Jerami Grant has been a big talk recently but I can't get over this glaring issue: Availability.

Grant since leaving Denver:
54 GP
47 GP
63 GP
54 GP
Avg. 54.5 GP/yr

Porzingis the last 4 years:
43 GP
51 GP
65 GP
57 GP
Avg. 54.0 GP/yr


Grant next 4 years:
Age 30 due 29.8M
Age 31 due 32.0M
Age 32 due 34.2M
Age 33 due 36.4M
Total 4 yrs - 132.4M


I added KP for comparison. I think Grant is an okay offensive player, even if the only thing he does above league average is shoot the 3 ball. I just don't think it's a fit with the current roster construction nor do I think it's worth giving up future picks, and I can't get over the lack of availability...

[From Dirk to SCREW YOU Nico]

Jerami Grant has been a big talk recently but I can't get over this glaring issue: Availability.

Grant since leaving Denver:
54 GP
47 GP
63 GP
54 GP
Avg. 54.5 GP/yr

Porzingis the last 4 years:
43 GP
51 GP
65 GP
57 GP
Avg. 54.0 GP/yr


Grant next 4 years:
Age 30 due 29.8M
Age 31 due 32.0M
Age 32 due 34.2M
Age 33 due 36.4M
Total 4 yrs - 132.4M


I added KP for comparison. I think Grant is an okay offensive player, even if the only thing he does above league average is shoot the 3 ball. I just don't think it's a fit with the current roster construction nor do I think it's worth giving up future picks, and I can't get over the lack of availability...

WOW, i had no idea he was unavailable that often.  18 games missed in his most available year of the last four. 

I wondered what a normal season was like, since players often rest here and there, so i checked on a few Mavs/recent Mavs that i felt didn't miss many, if any, games for injury.

Games played in 2023-2024
Luka - 70 
PJ - 73
Gafford - 74
DJJ - 74

Injured at times during the year:
Kyrie - 58
Lively - 55

[mvossman]

Jerami Grant has been a big talk recently but I can't get over this glaring issue: Availability.

Grant since leaving Denver:
54 GP
47 GP
63 GP
54 GP
Avg. 54.5 GP/yr

Porzingis the last 4 years:
43 GP
51 GP
65 GP
57 GP
Avg. 54.0 GP/yr


Grant next 4 years:
Age 30 due 29.8M
Age 31 due 32.0M
Age 32 due 34.2M
Age 33 due 36.4M
Total 4 yrs - 132.4M


I added KP for comparison. I think Grant is an okay offensive player, even if the only thing he does above league average is shoot the 3 ball. I just don't think it's a fit with the current roster construction nor do I think it's worth giving up future picks, and I can't get over the lack of availability...

This is a legit concern, but I wonder how many of those missed games is Portland/Detroit shutting him down to tank?

[DanSchwartzgan]

How about

Wizards get Green and THJ and "draft capital"
Mavs get Avdija

There are several reasons why Washington might be a good trade partner.  Some, I've mentioned in previous posts and as I've thought about this further, I've come up with one more.

The new piece of this for me is looking at Washington's future cap.  It looks like their team is going to be built around #2 (Sarr, Risacher or Clingan) plus Coulibaly and whatever they can add in free agency in 2025.  That last part is where THJ comes in.  They can walk away from their entire team next summer except Kuzma, Poole and Avdija, Coulibaly, their picks and presumably Jones if they retain him.  So, THJ might be valued as someone who can fill minutes in 24/25 while preserving space next year.  They don't have enough space in 24/25 to do anything, but they could be a big player in the summer of 2025.

Green fits a trade into their NT MLE in July (and I think he may fit their TPE in June if that were somehow needed).  He adds someone who actually tries on D instead of Poole and Kuzma who are basically just getting their cardio in for half the game.  None of the top draft prospects at #2 is a guard and all they really have right now is Jones (FA) and Poole (best as a sixth man).  

Our 2025 pick makes sense as they don't have their own pick next summer.

Trading Avdija may alleviate some of the positional crowding depending on who they draft.  As mentioned, they have two guards in Jones/Poole and two centers who both expire next summer in Bagley/Holmes.  Their 3/4 or 4/3 types include Coulibaly (3), Kispert (3), Avdija (3/4), Kuzma (4/3) and potentially Sarr (4) or Risacher (3).  Longer term, I see them as:

Guards:  Jones/Green/Poole
Wings:  Coulibaly, Kuzma, Kispert (maybe Sarr or Risacher)
Bigs:  (maybe Sarr or Clingan), maybe Bagley

Then you fill in what you need in 2025 free agency

I love Avdija in Dallas and this construct (or what I proposed that sent Green/draft equity to Washington and THJ elsewhere) creates enough room for DJJ.  I think the key is what Washington does in the draft.  If they get Clingan, there is less of a logjam as Coulibaly, Avdija and Kuzma can play the 2, 3, 4.  But, if they take Sarr or Risacher, I think this has a better chance.

[SleepingHero]

NBACentral (@TheDunkCentral)
The Houston Rockets could target Kevin Durant and Jimmy Butler, per @DraftExpress

“The Rockets are clearly in win-now mode and would love to add star power to their roster, with players such as Kevin Durant, Jimmy Butler, Mikal Bridges and Brandon Ingram as well as role players including Brook Lopez and Marcus Smart being some that other teams say the Rockets could have interest in targeting (with some names more far-fetched than others).”

[YaBoyAplus]

If THJ Maxi + omax + 25 1st can get you J.grant, then I think I'll pull that trigger. I don't see why green needs to be in the deal tho. Thybulle is interesting, but we can't get both without including Green. Is Thybulle a better fit than Green?

[SleepingHero]

Jerami Grant has been a big talk recently but I can't get over this glaring issue: Availability.

Grant since leaving Denver:
54 GP
47 GP
63 GP
54 GP
Avg. 54.5 GP/yr

Porzingis the last 4 years:
43 GP
51 GP
65 GP
57 GP
Avg. 54.0 GP/yr


Grant next 4 years:
Age 30 due 29.8M
Age 31 due 32.0M
Age 32 due 34.2M
Age 33 due 36.4M
Total 4 yrs - 132.4M


I added KP for comparison. I think Grant is an okay offensive player, even if the only thing he does above league average is shoot the 3 ball. I just don't think it's a fit with the current roster construction nor do I think it's worth giving up future picks, and I can't get over the lack of availability...

To be fair, he's been on tanking teams in 3 out of those 4 years. They intentionally sat him to lose games. Look at the "injuries" they used as excuses:

DET 2021:
He was healthy and played every game until February, then these "injuries" came about
Rest- 1 game
Bruised quad- 2 games
Bruised quad again- 1 game
Knee soreness-3 games
Rest- 1 game
Bruised quad AGAIN- 1 game (sat out 1 game, played the next and had 26 points, and then you'll never guess what happened)
Bruised quad QUAD- 1 game
Rest- 1 game
Then a mysterious knee injury that wasn't specified came out and kept him out for the rest of the season- 9 games

DET 2022:
October-Left Elbow contusion- 1 game 
Then everything fine, played every game, until middle of December:
UCL tear in hand, needs surgery, out 6 weeks- 21 games
COVID-19 Protocols -2 games
Conditioning (no I'm not kidding)- 2 games

Then fine, and played every game until middle of march
Knee inflammation- 2 games
Left calf strain that kept him out till the end of the season- 8 games


Portland 2023:
November- Left ankle sprain- 1 game 
December- back contusion- 1 game
February- concussion- 3 games

Then by the middle of March and Portland was clearly out of the playoff race when Dame injured his ribs, they sat him and they tank out. Their reason, I kid you not:

Quad contusion- 14 games  

No please Mr. Silver, ignore the fact that Dame is sitting out, we've just traded CJ, and we're playing Ryan Arcidiacono 35 minutes.  We're not tanking at all!- Portland's GM probably.

Portland 2024- No Dame, No CJ, Scoot's Era:
Plays 19 games straight until December-

Concussion- 4 games
Illness- 1 game
Back tightness- 2 games

Now we're in March! Guess what time it is? Tankathon! Can you guess what "injury" excuse Portland used for Grant? Yep! You guessed it!

Quad/Hamstring- 21 games


So out of all of these injuries, only 1 was considered really serious. Which was the UCL tear. Everything else wreaks of tank-itis. I don't think Grant is fragile at all and we shouldn't be worried.

[SleepingHero]

If THJ Maxi + omax + 25 1st can get you J.grant, then I think I'll pull that trigger. I don't see why green needs to be in the deal tho. Thybulle is interesting, but we can't get both without including Green. Is Thybulle a better fit than Green?

As the resident #1 Fan of Thybulle, I am certain Thybulle is a better fit than Green. Solely because of how game changing his defense is. Offensively he's a bit worse, but he's largely similar to Green in that he only takes wide open 3s and he spots up 95% of the time. 

But defensively he is a guy who can guard Shai/Brown/Tatum and we can feel good about it. I posted some clips yesterday of Thybulle locking down Shai and J-Dub. He's a beast.

[SleepingHero]

NBACentral (@TheDunkCentral)
Collin Sexton is a potential trade target for the Lakers, per @DraftExpress

“The Lakers likely will explore the trade market to see what type of veterans they can add to give LeBron James, Anthony Davis and new coach J.J. Redick the best chance of competing this season, with NBA names such as Dejounte Murray and Collin Sexton being batted around by rival teams as possible targets.”

[SleepingHero]

NBACentral (@TheDunkCentral)
Bobby Portis and Pat Connaughton are available on the trade market, per @MikeAScotto

“Rival executives have also come away with the sense that Bobby Portis and Pat Connaughton are available on the trade market if Milwaukee can make a notable win-now upgrade. Both players, however, have been mentioned as possible trade candidates in the past, and nothing has come of it. Portis finished as a Sixth Man of the Year finalist for the second straight year.”

[SleepingHero]

NBACentral (@TheDunkCentral)
The starting bidding price for OG Anunoby is now expected to be $35 million annually, per @MikeAScotto

“When the Knicks first acquired Anunoby, the belief was that he’d land a deal in the $30-35 million a year range annually, league sources told HoopsHype. Now, however, that value has gone up, starting at $35 million annually to his maximum starting salary for next season, sources said.”

[SleepingHero]

Evan Sidery (@esidery)
The Pelicans loom as a potential trade destination for Trae Young or Dejounte Murray, per @DraftExpress (https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_...l-58-picks).

Brandon Ingram would likely be sent to the Hawks, if a blockbuster deal between these two teams occurred this offseason.

[SleepingHero]

Evan Sidery (@esidery)
Rival executives are pegging Kris Dunn to the Suns as a possible free agent fit, per @DraftExpress (https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_...l-58-picks).

Dunn, one of the NBA’s most underrated defenders, could sign in Phoenix on the veteran’s minimum while securing a strong spot within their rotation.

[SleepingHero]

Evan Sidery (@esidery)
Jalen Johnson appears to be the only untouchable player in trade talks on the Hawks’ roster, per @DraftExpress (https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_...l-58-picks).

A full-blown fire sale seems likely on the horizon in Atlanta.

[SleepingHero]

All Things Mavs (@All_Things_Mavs)
Dallas is one of multiple teams showing interest in Landry Shamet, per @MikeAScotto in the article below.

Shamet had a down season with the Wizards last year, but he might be a solid buy-low option for the Mavs as a shooter off the bench.