PLAYOFFS ROUND 1: #4 LAC (4-3) vs #5 DAL (3-4)

[DanSchwartzgan]

https://twitter.com/ESPNStatsInfo/status...0067057671

What is interesting about that 87% win rate for the team up 2-0 is it is actually a lower win rate when you look at all 2-0 leaders of 7 game series.  

The reason 13% of teams in LAC’s position have won is the home team is typically the better team (since they hosted the first two games).  True here?

[KillerLeft]

The reason 13% of teams in LAC’s position have won is the home team is typically the better team (since they hosted the first two games).  True here?

That's the million dollar question right now. 

Has this been a case of Mavs overachieving and Clippers underachieving, with a "nature will correct itself" revelation coming, or is the entire NBA subculture guilty of overrating the Clippers while underrating our Mavs? We'll know in a week, but right now I can't call it. My heart hopes it's the latter, but my brain is scared to declare it confidently.

[Hogmelon]

P(g) = probability that Clippers win any given game

P(S) = probability that Clippers win the series

P(g)               P(S)
0.5               18.75%
0.55             25.62%
0.6               33.70%
0.65             42.84%
0.68619        50.00%
0.7               52.82%
0.71534      56.00%
0.75             63.28%
0.8               73.73%

Has this been a case of Mavs overachieving and Clippers underachieving, with a "nature will correct itself" revelation coming, or is the entire NBA subculture guilty of overrating the Clippers while underrating our Mavs? We'll know in a week, but right now I can't call it. My heart hopes it's the latter, but my brain is scared to declare it confidently.

Maybe ... the Clippers have been "underachieving" slightly,  and the Mavs have been "overachieving" slightly.

In the regular season, the Clippers won 65.3% of their games, and the Mavs won 58.3% of their games.  The Mavs won two out of three regular season games against the Clippers (with point differentials of +51, +16, and -10).

For whatever reason(s), the Clippers have dug themselves an 0-2 hole, and even if the Clippers are, slightly,  the better team (and even if "nature will correct itself"), I would contend that the probability the Clippers will win four games in this series (before the Mavs win just two more games) is less than 40%.

For example:

If, in each of the remaining games of this series, the probability of a Clipper win is 65% (and the probability of a Mav win is only 35%), then the probability that the Clippers will win the series is only 42.84%.  I certainly think the Mavs are far superior to the "average" opponent of the Clippers, against whom they won 65.3% of their regular-season games.  I also think that playing Games 3, 4, and 6 in Dallas boosts the Mavs' win probabilities (to something a helluva lot better than 35%) in those games.  Etc.

[Kammrath]

guilty of overrating the Clippers while underrating our Mavs

In the regular season the Clips were 3rd in O, 8th in D, 2nd in Net Rating. 

The Mavs were 8th in O, 21st in D, 10th in Net Rating. 

Unless you ignore the regular season and say teams aren't their record and numbers, then there is no way everyone was overrating the Clips and underrating the Mavs. The Mavs very rightfully were big underdogs coming into this series. 

I hope I am dead wrong, but I fully anticipate the Mavs to get beat pretty solidly tonight and to shoot the ball mediocre to poor.

[KillerLeft]

I hope I am dead wrong, but I fully anticipate the Mavs to get beat pretty solidly tonight and to shoot the ball mediocre to poor.

Yeah, could be. Although it's a pretty steep climb from there to taking this series away from the Mavs. They'd have to win 4 of the next 5. That's hard to do against any team.

[Kammrath]

P.S. LAC shot 59.9% TS and DAL 58.2% TS in the regular season. So far LAC is 59.8% in two games and DAL is 66.7%. So what I expect is the Mavs shooting percentages to plummet in the next couple games. When that happens I do not think they can win...but if they DO, then it is possible these Mavs are indeed better than their regular season numbers indicated.

[Kammrath]

They'd have to win 4 of the next 5. That's hard to do against any team.

For sure. I think the Clips still have a 15% chance to win the series or so, but I fully anticipate the Mavs winning. I just think the Mavs will get beat at least a couple times along the way.

[dirkfansince1998]

P.S. LAC shot 59.9% TS and DAL 58.2% TS in the regular season. So far LAC is 59.8% in two games and DAL is 66.7%. So what I expect is the Mavs shooting percentages to plummet in the next couple games. When that happens I do not think they can win...but if they DO, then it is possible these Mavs are indeed better than their regular season numbers indicated.

Thankfully the Mavs are up 2-0.  They don´t need to beat them on average. Two hot shooting performances could be enough.

[Kammrath]

Thankfully the Mavs are up 2-0.  They don´t need to beat them on average. Two hot shooting performances could be enough.

Definitely. 

But what I WANT to see is a Mavs team get outshot by LAC in a game and WIN. I want to SEE that because as an irrational fan I want this team to actually have a contender buried deep within it.

[KillerLeft]

But what I WANT to see is a Mavs team get outshot by LAC in a game and WIN. I want to SEE that because as an irrational fan I want this team to actually have a contender buried deep within it.

It's not impossible, but I agree, very unlikely. 

I do give them more credit than you for HOW they're generating those shots. I think they did more than just make more shots in the first two games, I think the offense has OWNED the Clippers, frankly. But I can't deny that if they hadn't CONVERTED the opportunities it would have been for nothing, and that some cold shooting might knock some of the shine off of this thing pretty quickly. 

I just feel like they're simply not contenders yet. But, I hope you don't let that hard truth prevent you from enjoying the progress of reaching the 2nd round, and overcoming the season from Hell to do so.

[Kammrath]

I do give them more credit than you for HOW they're generating those shots. I think they did more than just make more shots in the first two games, I think the offense has OWNED the Clippers, frankly. But I can't deny that if they hadn't CONVERTED the opportunities it would have been for nothing, and that some cold shooting might knock some of the shine off of this thing pretty quickly. 

I just feel like they're simply not contenders yet. But, I hope you don't let that hard truth prevent you from enjoying the progress of reaching the 2nd round, and overcoming the season from Hell to do so.

I watched all season Luka generate INCREDIBLE looks for his teammates and have them miss wide open shots at an astonishing rate in some games. There was some good execution in these two games, but more than anything there was shot making IMO.

Oh, I DEFINITELY do not think they are contenders. And I am actually very nervous that getting to the 2nd round (or West final!) would fool the MBT into running it all back and not trading KP. 

I want KP traded more than anything else. But there is a growing fan side of me that wants them to go on an irrationally long playoff run even if it is total fool's gold and ruins the summer and next season....

[HoosierDaddyKid]

They haven't reached Finals contenders yet, but it sure is fun watching  them take the 1st step.

[KillerLeft]

They haven't reached Finals contenders yet, but it sure is fun watching  them take the 1st step.

That's right where I am, too. 

There was so much failure this season that I had started to worry this year would be a step backwards, but I'm confident now that it was at least a half-step forward.

[HoosierDaddyKid]

They're saying on NBA countdown, that this game is the most important game in Clipper history.

[KillerLeft]

They're saying on NBA countdown, that this game is the most important game in Clipper history.

Dude, there's a national narrative right now about whether or not the franchise should relocate to Seattle. That team's fans are just conditioned for disappointment in a way I don't know that we can fully appreciate.

[HoosierDaddyKid]

Dude, there's a national narrative right now about whether or not the franchise should relocate to Seattle. That team's fans are just conditioned for disappointment in a way I don't know that we can fully appreciate.

I would love for the NBA to put another team in Seattle.  They were established in 1967, and it was a damn shame they moved to OKC in 2008. But as rich as Ballmer is, I think he wants to stay in LA and try to topple the Lakers. When he first bought the Clippers, he said he wasn't moving them. I believe he's having a brand new arena built for them.
Back to the game, look for the Clippers to make the Mavs feel them. Especially Luka.

[dirkfansince1998]

Dude, there's a national narrative right now about whether or not the franchise should relocate to Seattle. That team's fans are just conditioned for disappointment in a way I don't know that we can fully appreciate.

Footage of little dfs98 shows him in a Jamal Mashburn jersey. Thankfully I wasn´t really aware of everything that was going on at that time but I think guys that followed the Mavs in the 90s know how it feels to be the laughing stock of the NBA. At least social media wasn´t a thing.

[HoosierDaddyKid]

Soon as Luka goes to the bench, Clippers go on a 20-4 run. SMH..

[ItsGoTime]

Mavs win!!!

[HoosierDaddyKid]

PG got it going..