Building Around Cooper: A Backward-Looking Thought Experiment

[FireNicoHarrison]

RE Lively. I do not want to trade him I want to give him a shot to stay healthy now but I would not want to pick all guards and wings in this draft with the possibility of a worst case scenario living on in our nightmares because if Lively again gets injured or has issues that limits his minutes this team would be relying on guys we know cannot carry that weight. Gafford if he is still hear is a great 2nd team center, Bagley as noted is a 4 not a 5 he is 6'10 maybe 6'9 and even smaller than we think he is.

We should take that Italian Wemby Luigi Suigo or some other big with size if he is there at 30 and not back in school or whatever. Now Lively can play knowing we have a replacement for him if he is going to be an injury prone player.

I did see a video on youtube the other day should have saved it. They were trying to say Wemby may fear the game of Jamarion Sharp. found it https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xLV7gaTJ9vA&pp=ygUVSmFtYXJpb24gU2hhcnAgd2VtYnlz

Suigo will play at Villanova next year... No NBA draft for him.

[RoyTarpleysGhost]

I hope the Mavs draft BPA but if we're talking fit, I still stick with Brown and Flemings as the prototypical lead ball handlers I think you want next to Flagg. I just don't think this is Wagler, Acuff, or Burries game. Maybe my views on how basketball is played are outdated but I know what I watched last year, and it was rough to watch.

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/VQGeTZyHikY

[KillerLeft]

I hope the Mavs draft BPA but if we're talking fit, I still stick with Brown and Flemings as the prototypical lead ball handlers I think you want next to Flagg.  I just don't think this is Wagler, Acuff, or Burries game.  Maybe my views on how basketball is played are outdated but I know what I watched last year, and it was rough to watch.

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/VQGeTZyHikY

I'm totally on board with your macro point, as you know. 

The truth, as I see it, is that any of the names you mention would make for a good start away from the misery of last year's offense. I understand the distinction you're making, but setting aside whether or not you've got the two groups sorted correctly, even a combo guard represents a huge upgrade in synergy and creation.

[RoyTarpleysGhost]

I hope the Mavs draft BPA but if we're talking fit, I still stick with Brown and Flemings as the prototypical lead ball handlers I think you want next to Flagg. I just don't think this is Wagler, Acuff, or Burries game. Maybe my views on how basketball is played are outdated but I know what I watched last year, and it was rough to watch.

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/VQGeTZyHikY

I look at this current roster and it feels like we're going to be asking Cooper Flagg to play like Luka Doncic or James Harden.

[Smitty]

This is mostly unchanged from a couple months ago. It feels unlikely that Acuff is available for the Mavs, 'but insert Guard'.

The thing that I can see changing is the Mavs going with a Wing/Big at 9 instead. If that happens, I don't see them bringing back Middleton and I see them using that ~21M TPE to go after Aso Dosunmo or Coby White via SnT, or Gillespie with the MLE.

I wouldn't hate the world if Ament/Morez/Mara/Yaxel types were the pick at 9.

Let's go with Ament for this exercise and play out the offseason to see what it could look like:

Pick 9: Nate Ament W
Pick 30: Zuby Ejiofor F/C
Pick 48: Jaden Bradley PG


Which brings me to this at the start of free agency:
Kyrie |        | AJJ | Bradley*
Max | Klay
Flagg | Naji | Martin
PJW | Ament | Ejiofor
Gafford | Lively

With Bradley on a 2-way, I have 3 roster spots open and can easily get a 4th with waiving AJJ. Of my own free agents/options/2-way guys I like the idea of bringing back Bagley with the BAE. And Cissie on a 2-way or Min. for mandatory Big depth. I'd be looking at signing Coby White or Ayo Dosunmo with the MLE/TPE (SnT). Can you decline Nembhard's option and get him back on another 2-way? If not, just waive AJJ, if you need the roster spot... Maybe you waive him anyway and bring back BWill or a different vet Min PG.

Result:

Kyrie | Nembhard | AJJ | Bradley*
Dosunmo | Max | Klay | Poulakidas*
Flagg | Naji | Martin
PJW | Ament | Ejiofor
Lively | Gafford | Bagley | Cissie*

I would extend Naji at 4/$64M and Max at 4/$70M. I would not extend Lively. Just wait until he hits RFA the following summer. You end up having a team full of guys around that MLE range, outside of Kyrie, who has a $42.4M PO the following year. Your positive trade value guys through the summer and the following TDL are now Klay (expiring), PJW, Gafford. Klay would be very high on my list to trade for any asset it cost you for the Ayo SnT scenario here (SRP?). Your primary ball-handlers are now Kyrie, Flagg, Ayo, Nemby, and Naji. Don't sleep on Bradley having a real impact early on his career either...

Welp, I said a month and a half ago that I wouldn't hate the world if they didn't go with a Guard at 9 and here we are. They did however trade up to get one later in the round. 

All of my favorite Guard targets (Ayo, Coby, Gillespie) have already agreed to deals to return to their teams, so the FA market is going to be slim pickens.

There's an obvious need at Guard and the options are limited. Again, the list of best available UFA's:

SG 6'3-215
Norman Powell 
Age: 33

PG/SG 6'3-200
Anfernee Simons 
Age: 27

PG/SG 6'3-190
Collin Sexton
Age: 27

SG 6'4-210
Quentin Grimes 
Age: 26

SG 6'6-198
Keven Huerter
Age: 27

SG 6'5-206
Luke Kennard
Age: 30

SG 6'4-175
Keon Ellis 
Age: 26

PG 6'0-185 
Aaron Holiday 
Age: 29


I've also mention an RFA, previous Two-Way guy, that has ties to both Masai and May in Alijah Martin. 

Some of the TPE trade options we've discussed include the OKC guards and players like Malik Monk -- or cheap swings like Vit Krejci, who has ties to Schmitz, and shouldn't cost much.


As it stands now the Mavs have 12 players with guaranteed deals:
Kyrie | (Sergio)
Christie | Klay | AJJ
Flagg | Naji | Martin
PJW | (MoJo)
Lively | Gafford


And then there's the rest:
NGT: Nembhard
Two-Way: Poulakidas, Smith
SRP’s: Lawal, Ishchenko
UFA: BWill, Powell, Middleton, Bagley
RFA: Cisse

*Nembhard’s Team Option deadline is 6/29/26



I think we’re destined for another year of 1 Guard - 3 Wings -1 Big  or  1 Guard - 2 Wings - 2 Bigs lineups. I say that with lumping Max and Klay in the Wing category because they aren’t creators (assuming Klay is here). I guess the positive there is May had success with that model. It's certainly possible we're going to see even more Point-Flagg in Year 2...

There’s just no other way around it outside of a big trade that we can’t see. They only have one legit PG type on the roster in Kyrie, and even then, he’s not really a “PG”, in the same way that Flagg and Naji aren't either.

It will obviously take more than 1 draft and 1 summer to get this roster where it needs to be post-‘Nico vision’. Sigh.

[dirkfansince1998]

Looking at your list of guard options Huerter and Ellis obviously aren't primary ballhandlers but their value is probably at an all time low. As bad as the options are I would prefer a cheap reclamation project over a full MLE (or even more TPE) investment that isn't going to move the needle.

[mvossman]

Welp, I said a month and a half ago that I wouldn't hate the world if they didn't go with a Guard at 9 and here we are. They did however trade up to get one later in the round. 

All of my favorite Guard targets (Ayo, Coby, Gillespie) have already agreed to deals to return to their teams, so the FA market is going to be slim pickens.

There's an obvious need at Guard and the options are limited. Again, the list of best available UFA's:

SG 6'3-215
Norman Powell 
Age: 33

PG/SG 6'3-200
Anfernee Simons 
Age: 27

PG/SG 6'3-190
Collin Sexton
Age: 27

SG 6'4-210
Quentin Grimes 
Age: 26

SG 6'6-198
Keven Huerter
Age: 27

SG 6'5-206
Luke Kennard
Age: 30

SG 6'4-175
Keon Ellis 
Age: 26

PG 6'0-185 
Aaron Holiday 
Age: 29


I've also mention an RFA, previous Two-Way guy, that has ties to both Masai and May in Alijah Martin. 

Some of the TPE trade options we've discussed include the OKC guards and players like Malik Monk -- or cheap swings like Vit Krejci, who has ties to Schmitz, and shouldn't cost much.


As it stands now the Mavs have 12 players with guaranteed deals:
Kyrie | (Sergio)
Christie | Klay | AJJ
Flagg | Naji | Martin
PJW | (MoJo)
Lively | Gafford


And then there's the rest:
NGT: Nembhard
Two-Way: Poulakidas, Smith
SRP’s: Lawal, Ishchenko
UFA: BWill, Powell, Middleton, Bagley
RFA: Cisse

*Nembhard’s Team Option deadline is 6/29/26



I think we’re destined for another year of 1 Guard - 3 Wings -1 Big  or  1 Guard - 2 Wings - 2 Bigs lineups. I say that with lumping Max and Klay in the Wing category because they aren’t creators (assuming Klay is here). I guess the positive there is May had success with that model. It's certainly possible we're going to see even more Point-Flagg in Year 2...

There’s just no other way around it outside of a big trade that we can’t see. They only have one legit PG type on the roster in Kyrie, and even then, he’s not really a “PG”.

It will obviously take more than 1 draft and 1 summer to get this roster where it needs to be post-‘Nico vision’. Sigh.

This list screams they need to make a trade.

[Smitty]

IN                              OUT
Marcus Sasser            Brandon Williams
Sergio de Lerrea         AJ Johnson
Tarik Biberovic            Khris Middleton
Santi Aldama              Marvin Bagley
Morez Johnson           Dwight Powell
 
 
 
       IN                               OUT
Dusty May                      Jason Kidd
Willie Green                    Jay Triano
Joe Boylan                      Frank Vogel
Garrett Temple                Popeye Jones 
*Josh Broghammer          Mike Penberthy
*Phil Handy                    Jordan Sears
                                     Eric Hughes
                                     Keith Veney
                                     Dru Anthrop
 

Coach Dusty May’s quote on 105.3 yesterday- “We still, as of today, don’t really know exactly how we’re going to play.” Dusty elaborated that they still need to study the players more, but their baseline will be high level intensity and selfless basketball.



Well, a few people needed to see which coach was hired to have an opinion on how they should build around Flagg. I think most here agree that shooting/spacing was the obvious answer, especially in the short term. I think it's clear that the new MBT have eyes also.

What stands out a bit more though, is the positional size and versatility that nearly every new guy offers. I think it's clear that they targeted players that are multiple. Not position locked. Switchable defensively, even if it's just size and length. I think effort will be demanded. 

Going forward I think it's safe to assume that if you're small, position locked, and can't shoot from outside - you will not be a Mavs target any time soon. It makes me think that Nembhard's days are numbered, even if he is the lone 'true PG' type on the roster.

I think it's also clear that they see Flagg functioning as a guard offensively. An initiator, playmaker type. Not always an off-ball, secondary creator. Same as last year, just more of it...

Anyway, the Mavericks were 27th/30 in three-point attempts per game last season. 31.9 attempts per game to be exact. The league leaders are 40+. So, ~8 more attempts per game... Looking at the internal guys... adding Kyrie will help a lot! Max and Flagg should increase their volume. Max's per36 3PA have increased each year (4.4, 4.5, 5.3, 7.2). Then the combination of new additions: Aldama, Tarik, Sasser, Sergio, Morez will all need to let it fly when they're open. Space, pace, and movement will be the theme I'm watching for this season.

As for how competitive they will be. It's impossible to say without knowing the health of Kyrie and Lively throughout the season. Despite Kyrie's age and Lively's lack of availability they're still the top talent on this team, outside of Flagg. Nobody in the NBA is winning at a high clip without their top guys on the floor.

Kyrie hasn't played more than 60 games since 2018-2019. It's safe to say that 60 games played would be a reasonable high-end goal, and anything more would be surprising. Even then, is he going to be a 36-38 minutes per game guy next year, coming off the ACL injury, having not played NBA basketball in ~20 months? 

Same for Lively. Last year, in the first 3 games, all starts, he played: 10min, 19min, 21min, and then was out with injury. Came back and played 4 more games: 17min, 11min, 17min, 17min, before being out the rest of the year. His first two seasons he averaged 23 minutes per game, but I don't think that's a reasonable expectation next year, given his extensive injury history. If I had to set a reasonable goal for him it would be 50 games played, around 16 minutes per game, which is 800 total minutes. Much closer to the Dwight Powell role (not impact) from last year, who played 900 minutes.

Ultimately, I think the guard play outside of Kyrie is simply not good enough to overcome his absence. Both when he subs out in-game and when he misses them entirely. They will probably win at a higher rate in clutch games (17-28 last year - which was a league high 45 games / 6th worse 37% Win%). Outside of that, Coach May will have to work wonders for this team to be anywhere close to .500 next year. I expect them to win more than 26. I think Vegas will have the O/U line around 35 wins, if this is the final roster. With no incentive to lose, I think an increase in ~9 wins is a reasonable expectation, but the league will be much more competitive next season - with no obvious 'tankers'...

[mvossman]

The history of college coaches in the NBA has been mixed at best. They are very different sports and its difficult to make that transition. There are two reasons I think May might be a success. The first is that he has the right temperament. The second is that they are filling the roster with players more likely to tolerate a hybrid NBA/college culture. Guys who care more about winning than getting their own, younger guys and Europeans (who's basketball culture is closer to college than NBA). My guess is that we will see more of a college flow offense than the typical NBA ISO driven. May already uses a lot of NBA concepts (pace and space and a lack of set plays). I really hope it works.

[Dundalis]

Cool interview with Coops trainer. Im pretty confident of a Luka like second year leap, rather than some type of sophomore slump or minimal improvement. Great to hear the primary off season focus is on building his body to improve both strength and resistance to injury, even though everyone wants the main focus to be on his shooting.

[meistermatze]

IN                              OUT
Marcus Sasser            Brandon Williams
Sergio de Lerrea         AJ Johnson
Tarik Biberovic            Khris Middleton
Santi Aldama              Marvin Bagley
Morez Johnson           Dwight Powell
 
 
 
       IN                               OUT
Dusty May                      Jason Kidd
Willie Green                    Jay Triano
Joe Boylan                      Frank Vogel
Garrett Temple                Popeye Jones 
*Josh Broghammer          Mike Penberthy
*Phil Handy                    Jordan Sears
                                     Eric Hughes
                                     Keith Veney
                                     Dru Anthrop
 

Coach Dusty May’s quote on 105.3 yesterday- “We still, as of today, don’t really know exactly how we’re going to play.” Dusty elaborated that they still need to study the players more, but their baseline will be high level intensity and selfless basketball.



Well, a few people needed to see which coach was hired to have an opinion on how they should build around Flagg. I think most here agree that shooting/spacing was the obvious answer, especially in the short term. I think it's clear that the new MBT have eyes also.

What stands out a bit more though, is the positional size and versatility that nearly every new guy offers. I think it's clear that they targeted players that are multiple. Not position locked. Switchable defensively, even if it's just size and length. I think effort will be demanded. 

Going forward I think it's safe to assume that if you're small, position locked, and can't shoot from outside - you will not be a Mavs target any time soon. It makes me think that Nembhard's days are numbered, even if he is the lone 'true PG' type on the roster.

I think it's also clear that they see Flagg functioning as a guard offensively. An initiator, playmaker type. Not always an off-ball, secondary creator. Same as last year, just more of it...

Anyway, the Mavericks were 27th/30 in three-point attempts per game last season. 31.9 attempts per game to be exact. The league leaders are 40+. So, ~8 more attempts per game... Looking at the internal guys... adding Kyrie will help a lot! Max and Flagg should increase their volume. Max's per36 3PA have increased each year (4.4, 4.5, 5.3, 7.2). Then the combination of new additions: Aldama, Tarik, Sasser, Sergio, Morez will all need to let it fly when they're open. Space, pace, and movement will be the theme I'm watching for this season.

As for how competitive they will be. It's impossible to say without knowing the health of Kyrie and Lively throughout the season. Despite Kyrie's age and Lively's lack of availability they're still the top talent on this team, outside of Flagg. Nobody in the NBA is winning at a high clip without their top guys on the floor.

Kyrie hasn't played more than 60 games since 2018-2019. It's safe to say that 60 games played would be a reasonable high-end goal, and anything more would be surprising. Even then, is he going to be a 36-38 minutes per game guy next year, coming off the ACL injury, having not played NBA basketball in ~20 months? 

Same for Lively. Last year, in the first 3 games, all starts, he played: 10min, 19min, 21min, and then was out with injury. Came back and played 4 more games: 17min, 11min, 17min, 17min, before being out the rest of the year. His first two seasons he averaged 23 minutes per game, but I don't think that's a reasonable expectation next year, given his extensive injury history. If I had to set a reasonable goal for him it would be 50 games played, around 16 minutes per game, which is 800 total minutes. Much closer to the Dwight Powell role (not impact) from last year, who played 900 minutes.

Ultimately, I think the guard play outside of Kyrie is simply not good enough to overcome his absence. Both when he subs out in-game and when he misses them entirely. They will probably win at a higher rate in clutch games (17-28 last year - which was a league high 45 games / 6th worse 37% Win%). Outside of that, Coach May will have to work wonders for this team to be anywhere close to .500 next year. I expect them to win more than 26. I think Vegas will have the O/U line around 35 wins, if this is the final roster. With no incentive to lose, I think an increase in ~9 wins is a reasonable expectation, but the league will be much more competitive next season - with no obvious 'tankers'...

Excellent analysis and quite prophetic in the Nembhard case!