Building Around Cooper: A Backward-Looking Thought Experiment

[Mavs2021]

I think getting one of Sexton and Simons with the MLE is crucial, regardless of the draft. Both excellent career shooters and secondary playmakers, that are just entering their primes. They can be 6th man of the year contenders, but also give Kyrie the necessary breaks/rest during the regular season. We will have a top 8 frontcourt defense imho, but we´ll have to make the defensive sacrifice in the backcourt to spare Kyrie. I know we all want the two way players, but they are not there at the MLE and we cannot survive with just a Caruso. If we get one of Sexton/Simons for the MLE it will be a steal. Our advantage is we can offer a clear path to responsible minutes, even if we draft a Brown/Flemings/Wagler.

[mvossman]

Thanks for the synopsis.  For the most part we are on the same page.  I'm not sure I spend assets on Gillespie if I have Irving and Acuff on the team.  I'd probably look for a sweet shooting forward to put in the rotation either by trade or by free agency.

I think the main thing I want to point out is I'm trying to also think of this from the perspective that Dallas doesn't draft a guard.  Maybe its because we move up and Wilson or Dybasta (please Lord) makes more sense.  Or, maybe its because Ament is higher on their board than whatever guard is left by the time we draft at 8/9/10.  Whatever the reason, we need a plan should that be the path.  To me, that's the point at which a Gillespie or Dosunmo or Ivey makes sense.  Your draft pick rotates with Flagg and whoever is still here at the forward spots and you need someone to rotate with Kyrie and Christie in the guard rotation.  I'm mainly focused on top 8/9.  I think expansion draft has to enter our thinking at some point also.

If we end up drafting one of those guys, there will be even less reason to have both PJ and Naji on the roster next season.

[Smitty]

Above are a few things I've talked about since the TDL. And of course, my love for PJW is well noted... so I won't rehash any of that. But, given all the information, what would I do this summer? We know that the Mavs have 10 players under contract. They currently have 3 draft picks. They have the full MLE ($15M), $21M TPE, $6M TPE, and some trade options with positive value guys like Klay (expiring), Naji, PJ, Gafford. If things hold like they are today the Mavs are most likely to land pick #8 (34.1%), pick #29 (OKC), and pick #49 (PHX). What do I do?

At pick 8, using my own board, the selection is Darius Acuff Jr. 6'3 190lb Freshman PG from Arkansas, currently 19.6 years old.
At pick 29, using my own list that is in no particular order, the selection is Isaiah Evans 6'6 180lb Sophomore SG from Duke, currently 20.5 years old.
At pick 49, using that same list, the selection is Henri Veesaar 7'0 225lb Junior C from North Carolina, currently 22.2 years old. Which will be one of my 2-Ways.

Which brings me to this at the start of free agency:
Kyrie | Acuff
Max | Evans | Klay | AJJ
Flagg | Naji | Martin
PJW
Gafford | Lively |        | Veesaar*

Of my own Free Agents (Middelton, Jones, Powell, Bagley, Williams) and current 2-Ways (Nembhard, Cisse, Kelly). I can see bringing back any of Middleton, Bagley, Jones and/or converting Nembhard, Cisse.

Of the list of UFA/RFA's I have some interest in Coby White, Dosunmo, Gillespie, Mathurin, Eason. I don't think the MLE lands a lot of the guys I'd really want though.

With three roster spots open, I have a need for a 3rd PG, 3rd Big, and another 3/4 Wing. Without getting into all the trade options, I'll pick from the list above. Gillespie (MLE range), Middleton (1-yr), Bagley and bring back Nembhard and Cisse on another 2-Way. Leaving me with:

Kyrie | Acuff | Gillespie |     Nembhard*
Max | Evans | Klay | AJJ
Flagg | Naji | Martin
PJW | Middleton
Gafford | Lively | Bagley |     Cisse* | Veesaar*

I would extend Naji at 4/$64M and Max at 4/$70M. I would not extend Lively. Just wait until he hits RFA the following summer. You end up having a team full of guys around that MLE range, outside of Kyrie, who has a $42.4M PO the following year. Your positive trade value guys through the summer and the following TDL are now Klay (expiring), PJW, Gafford. You also have your $21M TPE to use instead of maybe just bringing back Middleton?

I think a lot of those guys have some position flex. Naji, Klay, Evans are G/F. Flagg, PJW, Middleton, Martin are 3/4 types depending on matchups and certain lineup combinations. I don't think it's a contender in the West next year, but I like a lot of the young guys in the start of a Flagg rebuild: 

PG: 6'3 Acuff (19)
SG: 6'5 Christie (23)
SF: 6'6 Evans (20)
PF: 6'9 Flagg (19)
C: 7'1 Lively (22)

This is mostly unchanged from a couple months ago. It feels unlikely that Acuff is available for the Mavs, 'but insert Guard'.

The thing that I can see changing is the Mavs going with a Wing/Big at 9 instead. If that happens, I don't see them bringing back Middleton and I see them using that ~21M TPE to go after Aso Dosunmo or Coby White via SnT, or Gillespie with the MLE.

I wouldn't hate the world if Ament/Morez/Mara/Yaxel types were the pick at 9.

Let's go with Ament for this exercise and play out the offseason to see what it could look like:

Pick 9: Nate Ament W
Pick 30: Zuby Ejiofor F/C
Pick 48: Jaden Bradley PG


Which brings me to this at the start of free agency:
Kyrie |        | AJJ | Bradley*
Max | Klay
Flagg | Naji | Martin
PJW | Ament | Ejiofor
Gafford | Lively

With Bradley on a 2-way, I have 3 roster spots open and can easily get a 4th with waiving AJJ. Of my own free agents/options/2-way guys I like the idea of bringing back Bagley with the BAE. And Cissie on a 2-way or Min. for mandatory Big depth. I'd be looking at signing Coby White or Ayo Dosunmo with the MLE/TPE (SnT). Can you decline Nembhard's option and get him back on another 2-way? If not, just waive AJJ, if you need the roster spot... Maybe you waive him anyway and bring back BWill or a different vet Min PG.

Result:

Kyrie | Nembhard | AJJ | Bradley*
Dosunmo | Max | Klay | Poulakidas*
Flagg | Naji | Martin
PJW | Ament | Ejiofor
Lively | Gafford | Bagley | Cissie*

I would extend Naji at 4/$64M and Max at 4/$70M. I would not extend Lively. Just wait until he hits RFA the following summer. You end up having a team full of guys around that MLE range, outside of Kyrie, who has a $42.4M PO the following year. Your positive trade value guys through the summer and the following TDL are now Klay (expiring), PJW, Gafford. Klay would be very high on my list to trade for any asset it cost you for the Ayo SnT scenario here (SRP?). Your primary ball-handlers are now Kyrie, Flagg, Ayo, Nemby, and Naji. Don't sleep on Bradley having a real impact early on his career either...

[dirkfansince1998]

Before we even talk about specific players we need to know what the bigger plan is when it comes to the scheme/X's and O's. Is Kidd the coach of the future?
Is it possible to install a defense that isn't build around a rim protector in drop. More switching? More advanced schemes that mix zone/man concepts?
5-out offense or a rim runner/post up option? Pick and roll or iso heavy? Heliocentric or multiple ballhandlers?

[Smitty]

Then this thread might not be for you. It's all about talking about specific players that we think do/don't fit with Flagg and how or what to do to build around him.

[KillerLeft]

Then this thread might not be for you. It's all about talking about specific players that we think do/don't fit with Flagg and how or what to do to build around him.

Sure, but to his excellent point, who's designing the offense and defense and how that person envisions Flagg's role in those systems has everything to do with the type of players they'll want to put around him. I know how I'd build around Flagg, but I have a pretty low level of confidence that it's what they'll look to do. 

The design of the team, as in what it's trying to accomplish and how, is everything, imho.

[Winter]

Sure, but to his excellent point, who's designing the offense and defense and how that person envisions Flagg's role in those systems has everything to do with the type of players they'll want to put around him. I know how I'd build around Flagg, but I have a pretty low level of confidence that it's what they'll look to do. 

The design of the team, as in what it's trying to accomplish and how, is everything, imho.

I agree that building around Flagg is the singular most important "conceptual" thing in the draft and free agency. We cannot look at the talent of a player and make a decision about fit just based on solely on his stats or his play with another team.

One of the worst +/- lineups that the Mavs played last year was Flagg/Christie/Washington, and I wouldn't have guessed that at all at the beginning of last year. I don't think there's anything simple about it.

[dirkfansince1998]

Then this thread might not be for you. It's all about talking about specific players that we think do/don't fit with Flagg and how or what to do to build around him.

Isn't a scheme or at least some kind of idea how a future Mavs teams around Flagg should look like needed to find those specific players?

[Smitty]

Isn't a scheme or at least some kind of idea how a future Mavs teams around Flagg should look like needed to find those specific players?

Yes and no. Chicken and the egg. Roster building isn't an exact science and it's not like the perfect archetype is available or obtainable for all 15 roster spots. Coaches, especially assistants, come and go. Gameplans change depending on matchups. All the good NBA teams are multiple and have players that become more or less playable in the playoffs, different series. That's where coaching factors in most of all. The talk in this thread is what WE think is best to put around Flagg. Who WE think on the current roster is not a long term fit. Who WE think the Mavs should try and trade for, draft, or sign in free agency. WE are trying to project or predict what kind of player Flagg will be a few years from now in his prime. So, when you say you need to know who the coach is before talking about specific players, that's perfectly fine, just not what this thread was intended for and not what we've all been discussing. To me, the coach's matter, of course. Just less so than the players on the court... and Kidd is here, and under contract for 4 more years, so...

[michaeltex]

This is mostly unchanged from a couple months ago. It feels unlikely that Acuff is available for the Mavs, 'but insert Guard'.

The thing that I can see changing is the Mavs going with a Wing/Big at 9 instead. If that happens, I don't see them bringing back Middleton and I see them using that ~21M TPE to go after Aso Dosunmo or Coby White via SnT, or Gillespie with the MLE.

I wouldn't hate the world if Ament/Morez/Mara/Yaxel types were the pick at 9.

Let's go with Ament for this exercise and play out the offseason to see what it could look like:

Pick 9: Nate Ament W
Pick 30: Zuby Ejiofor F/C
Pick 48: Jaden Bradley PG


Which brings me to this at the start of free agency:
Kyrie |        | AJJ | Bradley*
Max | Klay
Flagg | Naji | Martin
PJW | Ament | Ejiofor
Gafford | Lively

With Bradley on a 2-way, I have 3 roster spots open and can easily get a 4th with waiving AJJ. Of my own free agents/options/2-way guys I like the idea of bringing back Bagley with the BAE. And Cissie on a 2-way or Min. for mandatory Big depth. I'd be looking at signing Coby White or Ayo Dosunmo with the MLE/TPE (SnT). Can you decline Nembhard's option and get him back on another 2-way? If not, just waive AJJ, if you need the roster spot... Maybe you waive him anyway and bring back BWill or a different vet Min PG.

Result:

Kyrie | Nembhard | AJJ | Bradley*
Dosunmo | Max | Klay | Poulakidas*
Flagg | Naji | Martin
PJW | Ament | Ejiofor
Lively | Gafford | Bagley | Cissie*

I would extend Naji at 4/$64M and Max at 4/$70M. I would not extend Lively. Just wait until he hits RFA the following summer. You end up having a team full of guys around that MLE range, outside of Kyrie, who has a $42.4M PO the following year. Your positive trade value guys through the summer and the following TDL are now Klay (expiring), PJW, Gafford. Klay would be very high on my list to trade for any asset it cost you for the Ayo SnT scenario here (SRP?). Your primary ball-handlers are now Kyrie, Flagg, Ayo, Nemby, and Naji. Don't sleep on Bradley having a real impact early on his career either...

All the above comments aside, (I do agree that scheme helps define your roster), I applaud you for your thoughts and attention to detail. FWIW, I'm not a big Ament guy, I would go for Lendenborg if available, but this is your scenario. 

I'm kind of OK with going after Dosunmo, although I'd settle the Klay situation sooner rather than later. It would be a favor to everybody, IMO. I like bringing Bagley back along with Cissie, the last two seasons show you can never have too much depth where bigs are concerned. Although, I'm kind of expecting Gaff to get dealt for draft assets of some type.

To me, one of the problems of the current FA schedule is that you can miss the boat by waiting on some wanna-be prima donna to make up their mind while seeing if they can leverage a better offer with another team. So those targets need to have a high degree of "get-ability" otherwise you have to go to Plan B.

[mvossman]

I agree that building around Flagg is the singular most important "conceptual" thing in the draft and free agency. We cannot look at the talent of a player and make a decision about fit just based on solely on his stats or his play with another team.

One of the worst +/- lineups that the Mavs played last year was Flagg/Christie/Washington, and I wouldn't have guessed that at all at the beginning of last year. I don't think there's anything simple about it.

I will start with looking at +/- on a tanking team is going to be of limited value, not that that stopped me from making a similar argument that the Flagg/PJ minutes were bad based on +/-.  But if you look at the context, the story is different.  A big chunk of minutes that Flagg and PJ were with Naji (and a center) on the court.  That is spacing shit show.  Also a lot of the Flagg/PJ minutes were without a PG.  We know how bad that worked out.  I have not looked into it, but I am guessing there are similar context issues with Max as well.  Having a competent roster construction will provide a lot more valuable input into what actually works.

[KillerLeft]

Before we even talk about specific players we need to know what the bigger plan is when it comes to the scheme/X's and O's. Is Kidd the coach of the future?
Is it possible to install a defense that isn't build around a rim protector in drop. More switching? More advanced schemes that mix zone/man concepts?
5-out offense or a rim runner/post up option? Pick and roll or iso heavy? Heliocentric or multiple ballhandlers?

Kinda seems like Ujiri agrees with THIS (thank goodness).

[Smitty]

Kinda seems like Ujiri agrees with THIS (thank goodness).

I guess I'm in the minority again... I don't need Masai to tell me what he thinks. What his big picture plan is. What scheme he wants the coach to run. I can see with my two eyes and form opinions about what I think is best to put around Flagg on the court going forward. You mean to tell me that you of all people need the new coach to tell you that PJW is an excellent fit next to Coop? Naji? Gafford? I don't believe that to be true. I don't see you needing to know which coach is in place, what scheme he prefers, to form your own opinions going forward.


Back to the discussion... Building around Cooper.

I was on the fence if they would try and be as competitive as reasonably possible as early as next season, since they don't have a draft pick. The Kidd move signals a full reset to me. I think they will listen to offers for Kyrie most of all, and EVERYONE not named Flagg should be talked about in these forums. With a new coach, possibly no Kyrie, this looks to be much closer to that 4-5 year rebuild. Not what I was really hoping for as a fan that enjoys watching my team win.

The names less mentioned here that jumped to the top of my list as potential movers during the draft or summer: Max Christie, Naji Marshall, Dereck Lively. All extension eligible, none of them the new FO or coach is married to...

[KillerLeft]

I guess I'm in the minority again... I don't need Masai to tell me what he thinks. What his big picture plan is. What scheme he wants the coach to run. I can see with my two eyes and form opinions about what I think is best to put around Flagg on the court going forward. You mean to tell me that you of all people need the new coach to tell you that PJW is an excellent fit next to Coop? Naji? Gafford? I don't believe that to be true. I don't see you needing to know which coach is in place, what scheme he prefers, to form your own opinions going forward.

I just want to know what they're trying to accomplish, so that the thought experiment part doesn't feel like throwing time down a black hole of emptiness, yes. 

Playing Flagg above the break with the ball is completely different than how I'd use him, and requires completely different players around him. The plan dictates about 90%  of this conversation, to my way of thinking.

[Knutsen]

I just want to know what they're trying to accomplish, so that the thought experiment part doesn't feel like throwing time down a black hole of emptiness, yes. 

Playing Flagg above the break with the ball is completely different than how I'd use him, and requires completely different players around him. The plan dictates about 90%  of this conversation, to my way of thinking.

I see it the same way. 
Starting point would be a 2x2 projection where Flagg is the biggest asset in a couple of years:
- against OKC on O
- against OKC on D
- against SA on O
- against SA on D

If that’s not 4 completely different roles because you need him super multiple, but he’s either a „big small“ or a „small big“, then that’s the fixture of what you need around him, at least in my head. 

Because if he isn’t able to be a clear advantage against those two teams on both sides of the field the rest of the roster won’t matter, we won’t beat them in a 7 game series.

[Winter]

In the simplest terms, I just think Flagg needs to touch the ball on offense.

But does he need to initiate the offense as a primary ball handler? What was Kidd's plan? I don't recall Flagg ever positioning himself as a front line player. He started almost everything in the back court.

I think all this is meaningful, but we don't know what the new coach will draw up. Do we need a true PG? Do we see Flagg and Kyrie in the backcourt when the season starts? If I'm Ujiri and I am interviewing coaches for the Mavs head coach, I'm asking these questions in the interview.

But it some ways, this is backward. We would prefer to have a head coach in place before the draft - not afterwards. I'm guessing that won't happen. Because of this, I'm not sure we should be confident in any PG selection. Last season was setup in a very non-traditional way. A PG selection would force a very traditional type of player into the lineup.

Of course, a PG may simply be the best player available to the Mavs at #9. All of this seems pretty unusual going into this draft. We have no head coach, no set offense, and flexible players that can be moved around the court in non-traditional ways.

I would have liked to have known Kidd's plan for this year. Fortunately, we have a seasoned FO that has a history of seeing talent, so that's good. But they alone will be making a decision at #9 that should tell us something about their vision for Flagg.

[F Gump]

But it some ways, this is backward. We would prefer to have a head coach in place before the draft - not afterwards. I'm guessing that won't happen. Because of this, I'm not sure we should be confident in any PG selection. 

You're assuming failure based on your assumption that Ujiri does not have the understanding to realize he needs a head coach in the mix, and has important tasks coming up that they will then blunder through, without a HC.

I am not worried about any of that, because I think your assumptions are way off base. Basically, I don't think Ujiri is a dolt - he knows what he needs and when he needs it.

Is the hiring of the next coach waiting until a coach is freed up from the postseason his team is going though? Even that possibility leaves plenty of time to get the job done. If such a coach is needed for the Mavs draft, he's already doing the same task elsewhere - he won't have to start from scratch. And if the Mavs AREN'T waiting for a coach on one of those 4 remaining teams, it's even easier/quicker.

[Winter]

"Failure"? Boy you really misunderstood me! Maybe it was me. I literally have no idea how you read it that way.

I don't think it's any kind of failure at all. It is most certainly peculiar though that we are faced with this. We have no head coach, a generational talent, a new GM, and players who had tanked and had lacked structure the year before.

So I am just not presuming that the PG position at #9 is a given (or more specifically, that the PGs available at #9 will necessarily be good fits on this roster). Masai may look at the roster differently in regards to a typical PG.

I do think our #9 pick (or lack of a pick if we move down) will tell us quite a bit about how the FO thinks about Flagg and the roster in general.

[F Gump]

"Failure"? Boy you really misunderstood me! Maybe it was me. I literally have no idea how you read it that way.

I don't think it's any kind of failure at all. It is most certainly peculiar though that we are faced with this. We have no head coach, a generational talent, a new GM, and players who had tanked and had lacked structure the year before.

So I am just not presuming that the PG position at #9  is a given (or more specifically, that the PGs available at #9 will necessarily be good fits on this roster). Masai may look at the roster differently in regards to a typical PG.

I do think our #9 pick (or lack of a pick if we move down) will tell us quite a bit about how the FO thinks about Flagg and the roster in general.

Sorry, I certainly wasn't trying to alter what you were saying. But if I did, I'm not quite sure what you are saying. 

Here's what I thought you were saying:
1 The Mavs are not going to have a HC before the draft, and it's too tall an order to get one by then  (I think that's EXTREMELY pessimistic, to the point of unjustified alarmism, because I think getting a coach doesn't demand such an extended period of time)
2 ....so, without the input of a HC, they are going to be handicapped in figuring out the right player(s) to pick (I don't think they are going to be without a HC, but I also don't think a HC is vital to drafting the right player)
3  "It is most certainly peculiar though that we are faced with this. We have no head coach, a generational talent, a new GM, and players who had tanked and had lacked structure the year before." ("Peculiar"? I don't understand what's so "peculiar" about being without a HC for a time, until you hire the guy you want. Isn't that actually the norm, and to be expected? I think it's wise to go through the process to get the right guy, and I also think the next few weeks are NOT highly dependent for their success on the input from a HC. Nor do I see how the tanking and previous "lack of structure" that the prior players went through has any relevance to what's happening now, or to the timing of a new HC.)

Overall, it seemed to me you were expressing disaster - or looming disaster - because the Mavs don't have a new HC already and won't have one (in your estimation) anytime soon (or soon enough to make smart decisions). I think that's unnecessarily pessimistic. 

I am wondering - What am I misreading?

Before, I was wondering - Why do you think the Mavs can't have a HC by the draft, and why do you think his absence right now is a big deal? I can't see the real problem here.

[Winter]

No, I definitely don't think anything like that . In no way do I think anything is a disaster. I don't think I used "disaster" or "failure" in any of the comments.

1. I think it's hard to imagine a lot of HC interviews in this length of time. It's a month away and Sweeny is still in the playoffs. From what I've read, Masai likes to interview a lot people. That certainly doesn't mean he can't just hire someone he likes and call it a day. It seems like a tall order to me but it's entirely possible. Maybe Sweeny is a non-factor (or is eliminated quickly in the playoffs).

2. They won't be handicapped, but the vision of the team will not be able to take in the HCs philosophy if he's not hired by then. The HC and the assistants are a big part of the team's culture. Maybe that's not a big deal at all, but if I were drafting around Flagg I would want to know that part of the math. Maybe I'm over-thinking that part. I'm not saying its' "vital" but I think it's relevant.

3. The peculiar part for me is the cumulative nature all these things at once. This draft is really not just a clean slate for Masai. I think Flagg (and how he will be used) is really a critical part of this draft and should color how he sees the future of this team. Kidd spent a lot of last year using Flagg a certain way - in a way other coaches would not. Without a HC now, it seems odd to me to draft around Flagg with very different parameters about his position. And Flagg is not just any player. But I don't think in any way this is a disaster. It simply means Masai has to make some assumptions in the draft about how (and where) Flagg plays his position. It's not necessary to do that - I get it - you take the best player and maybe that's that. I just think it helps shape your choices.

But really, I think you just read too much drama into my post. I should have made it more clear.