Mavs Let Another One Slip Away
Aargh. What a gut punch. Mavs lead the West's #2 team for most of the game, but surrender the match with another poor performance in the clutch.
Game Story
Porzingis and Broekhoff remained out. The Mavs seemingly got a break, with Denver missing Milsap and Will Barton.
Carlisle had intended to start Maxi in KP's place, but when he learned that Milsap was not going to be available, he put Wright out there instead, fielding a very small unit to contend with Denver's beefy big men. The Mavericks got out to a decent start, and even built a short-lived double-digit lead in the first quarter. That quickly dwindled to five at the end of the period, and the two teams traded baskets and mini-runs for the next two quarters, with the Mavs maintaining a small lead for much of the game. The first half featured insipid play from both sides, which was followed by an offensive explosion in the third quarter, with Luka and Jokic both putting on a show.
When the fourth came along, the Mavs eventually fell into their pattern of dissolving into chaos on the offensive end. The Nuggets aggressively double-teamed Luka, and the team missed 7 of their last 9 shots, gave up offensive boards, and turned the ball over. Denver did not look much better. For the entire period, the Mavs were 2-10 on 3PTAs, and 4-9 from inside, scoring only 17 points in the frame.
The last two plays pretty much encapsulated the struggle. The Mavs were up 1 with 23 seconds left. Denver had the ball. Powell and DFS switched early, and through either miscommunication or Powell being unable to get through a screen, they failed to re-switch, and DFS was mismatched against Jokic. Jokic backed DFS down for several seconds, and no one came to help, with the other Mavs sticking to their men. Eventually, Jokic put the ball in over the way overmatched Finney-Smith, and Denver was up one with 7 seconds left.
On the Mavs' last possession, THJ inbounded to Maxi, who gave the ball right back to him. THJ passed to Luka, and then attempted to set a screen for Doncic, rather than getting out of his way. The double-team arrived, and Luka heaved a cross-court skip pass to DFS in the corner. Instead of taking the three, DFS tried to drive, but a Nugget quickly closed out. DFS heaved a desperate pass to THJ at the three-point line, but way overthrew him and turned the ball over, leaving Luka pounding the floor in frustration. Sad.
Analytics
The Mavericks lost the possession game by 7 shot attempts, although they put up 11 more 3PTAs than the Nugs. The home team ended up +9 on points from threes and -10 on points from twos. The Mavs had a 4-attempt edge at the line, but missed 8 of their 24 freebies (smh). Dallas evened things up by earning 19 points off the visitors' turnovers. The Nuggets, who play more of an old-school game than most teams, had a 56-46 advantage in PIP, while the Mavs earned a 15-5 edge in fast-break points. It came down to mediocre execution by both teams during the match, and a collapse at the end, along with a subpar performance from the foul line.
Players
Luka (37 min) had 27 points on 11-24 shots, and went 1-7 from long range. He narrowly missed another triple-double with 10 assists and 9 boards, but also had 6 turnovers, some of them constituting the fingernails-on-a-chalkboard level kind. He took only three shots in the fourth, as the Nuggets persistently forced the ball out of his hands. He still entertained with a variety of creative drives to the basket, and a lively third quarter, but was essentially shut down at the end of the game, failing to score in the final frame.
DFS (32 min) had his usual complement of contributions, but had only 7 points and 4 boards, along with 4 turnovers, including stepping out-of-bounds a couple of times and the last disastrous play.
Wright (31 min) led the team with 3 steals and had 6 boards, but receded into the background for stretches in the game. THJ (30 min) came up with his 15 points, and tried to serve as a second option.
Powell (27 min) was a bright spot on the offensive end, being the second-leading scorer with 16 points and rebounder with 8 boards. He actually did respectable defensive work, drawing much of the duty against Jokic. He made Jokic work for his points, but in the end, was just too undersized to slow down the Denver big man's explosion in the second half. Part of the clutch-time debacle involved his suddenly freezing and looking around in the middle of a play, as if he had heard a whistle, and then having to continue after the defense had collected itself.
Curry (24 min) provided a scoring punch off the bench with 14 points on 6-10 shooting. Maxi (23 min) had 13 points and 7 rebounds, but was 1-6 from beyond the arc. He shared some of the defensive duties on Jokic with Powell.
Nuggets. Jokic torched the Mavs with 33 points on 12-20 shooting, including 4 threes, and 26 points in the second half. Dallas didn't have much of an answer for him, other than trying to counter with spectacular offense from Luka. Jerami Grant and Mason Plumlee combined for 25 points. The boys in blue struggled trying to keep Denver's burly bigs out of the paint. Could have used Porzee.
Remarks
Carlisle acknowledged that this was a tough, disappointing loss. He observed that neither team had played very well, and the final result came down to a couple of plays at the end. He admitted that the last two plays were poorly handled, and took responsibility for the cluster. On the last offensive play, the plan was to drive and kick, but Luka had to get rid of the ball very quickly, and the rest of the squad didn't respond well. Rick didn't think the loss was solely attributable to the miscues at the end, though. He called attention to numerous "lapses on details" during the game, declining to specify, but citing poor clock management at the ends of quarters as an example. Said they need to come out with more of an edge at home, and reminded the press that the team is still learning.
Hardaway noted that they let Denver get "too comfortable," and the opposition knocked down some contested threes. He said that somebody besides Luka and Wright needs to be willing to get into the paint, including himself, instead of settling. He encouraged the squad to stay in more of an attack-first mode.
The Locked on Mavericks guys had some interesting analysis. They pointed out the irony of the game being won on a post-up after the recent controversy about post-ups no longer being good plays. They ventured that Rick may have meant, but been unable to say, that post-ups are not a good play for the Mavs, although they may be for teams with the size, strength and skill to make them work. I don't take a position on that based on this game, but do note that, except for Luka, posting up is not a skill that the Mavs excel at, and they are somewhat undersized when it comes to defending such plays.
Nick and Isaac observed that one of the Mavs' weaknesses is being able to defend the league's prime big men, such as AD, Embiid, and Jokic. They don't have anyone who can take these guys on one-on-one, especially without KP on the floor. They viewed this as a hole in the Mavericks' defensive system, and were not sure whether it can be solved schematically, through internal improvement, or must be resolved by beefing up the squad.
Finally, the podcasters did some analysis of the Mavs' clutch performance this season, deeming it "officially a problem." In the clutch, the Mavs' average offensive rating drops from 115 to 92, while their defensive rating remains about the same. Essentially, the offense just completely falls apart (acknowledging that defense and offense are related and better defense might translate to better offense). It is a much worse problem when the team does not have Luka, or especially KP, on the floor, but is an issue even with both of them out there. Clutch performance was much better last season. In their view, this was because the squad had some veterans on the floor who knew what to do in such situations. This season's team gets exposed for what it is -- a very young team, where only a few guys have any NBA playoff experience at all, and Barea is the only one with any kind of experience with deep playoff runs. In playoff-like circumstances in the game, they often fall into a disorganized state. Harris attributed the loss to a combination of young-team growing pains and being shorthanded, with KP out.
My impressions. It is no shame to come within a couple of points of beating the Nuggets, who are one of the West's best teams. Under the circumstances, neither is it a particular point of pride. Although this team has shown itself capable of winning without Luka, they are less able to do that without KP, and our best short-term hope may be that Zinger comes back soon and maintains his health. I think it also might be helpful if the squad had any sort of offense to go to in the clutch other than the Luka/Dwight PNR. That combo is developing very well, but when they run it over and over again, they are too predictable. They did vary it occasionally with a Luka/THJ PNR, but it would be good if they had some kind of secondary offense to depend on when the occasion warrants.
Before the game, I thought Denver was going to be a very tough out for the Mavs, with their complement of powerful bigs and KP being out. Although the Mavericks were not crisp during the game, they competed better than I feared they would. I suppose the sunny side is that they managed to punch above their weight for the majority of the game. As far as finding an answer to the league's behemoths, I fear that may not be an issue that gets completely resolved this season. Likewise, the issues in the clutch may take some time and experience to come together. I know no one wants to hear that, and I hope I am wrong, but there is something about these problems that doesn't scream "quick fix." I think we can still enjoy this exciting young group's growth and progress as the season goes along, as they are still achieving at a high level, compared to almost anyone's pre-season expectations.
Next. Lakers, at the AAC on Friday night. Should be a fun match.
Aargh. What a gut punch. Mavs lead the West's #2 team for most of the game, but surrender the match with another poor performance in the clutch.
Game Story
Porzingis and Broekhoff remained out. The Mavs seemingly got a break, with Denver missing Milsap and Will Barton.
Carlisle had intended to start Maxi in KP's place, but when he learned that Milsap was not going to be available, he put Wright out there instead, fielding a very small unit to contend with Denver's beefy big men. The Mavericks got out to a decent start, and even built a short-lived double-digit lead in the first quarter. That quickly dwindled to five at the end of the period, and the two teams traded baskets and mini-runs for the next two quarters, with the Mavs maintaining a small lead for much of the game. The first half featured insipid play from both sides, which was followed by an offensive explosion in the third quarter, with Luka and Jokic both putting on a show.
When the fourth came along, the Mavs eventually fell into their pattern of dissolving into chaos on the offensive end. The Nuggets aggressively double-teamed Luka, and the team missed 7 of their last 9 shots, gave up offensive boards, and turned the ball over. Denver did not look much better. For the entire period, the Mavs were 2-10 on 3PTAs, and 4-9 from inside, scoring only 17 points in the frame.
The last two plays pretty much encapsulated the struggle. The Mavs were up 1 with 23 seconds left. Denver had the ball. Powell and DFS switched early, and through either miscommunication or Powell being unable to get through a screen, they failed to re-switch, and DFS was mismatched against Jokic. Jokic backed DFS down for several seconds, and no one came to help, with the other Mavs sticking to their men. Eventually, Jokic put the ball in over the way overmatched Finney-Smith, and Denver was up one with 7 seconds left.
On the Mavs' last possession, THJ inbounded to Maxi, who gave the ball right back to him. THJ passed to Luka, and then attempted to set a screen for Doncic, rather than getting out of his way. The double-team arrived, and Luka heaved a cross-court skip pass to DFS in the corner. Instead of taking the three, DFS tried to drive, but a Nugget quickly closed out. DFS heaved a desperate pass to THJ at the three-point line, but way overthrew him and turned the ball over, leaving Luka pounding the floor in frustration. Sad.
Analytics
The Mavericks lost the possession game by 7 shot attempts, although they put up 11 more 3PTAs than the Nugs. The home team ended up +9 on points from threes and -10 on points from twos. The Mavs had a 4-attempt edge at the line, but missed 8 of their 24 freebies (smh). Dallas evened things up by earning 19 points off the visitors' turnovers. The Nuggets, who play more of an old-school game than most teams, had a 56-46 advantage in PIP, while the Mavs earned a 15-5 edge in fast-break points. It came down to mediocre execution by both teams during the match, and a collapse at the end, along with a subpar performance from the foul line.
Players
Luka (37 min) had 27 points on 11-24 shots, and went 1-7 from long range. He narrowly missed another triple-double with 10 assists and 9 boards, but also had 6 turnovers, some of them constituting the fingernails-on-a-chalkboard level kind. He took only three shots in the fourth, as the Nuggets persistently forced the ball out of his hands. He still entertained with a variety of creative drives to the basket, and a lively third quarter, but was essentially shut down at the end of the game, failing to score in the final frame.
DFS (32 min) had his usual complement of contributions, but had only 7 points and 4 boards, along with 4 turnovers, including stepping out-of-bounds a couple of times and the last disastrous play.
Wright (31 min) led the team with 3 steals and had 6 boards, but receded into the background for stretches in the game. THJ (30 min) came up with his 15 points, and tried to serve as a second option.
Powell (27 min) was a bright spot on the offensive end, being the second-leading scorer with 16 points and rebounder with 8 boards. He actually did respectable defensive work, drawing much of the duty against Jokic. He made Jokic work for his points, but in the end, was just too undersized to slow down the Denver big man's explosion in the second half. Part of the clutch-time debacle involved his suddenly freezing and looking around in the middle of a play, as if he had heard a whistle, and then having to continue after the defense had collected itself.
Curry (24 min) provided a scoring punch off the bench with 14 points on 6-10 shooting. Maxi (23 min) had 13 points and 7 rebounds, but was 1-6 from beyond the arc. He shared some of the defensive duties on Jokic with Powell.
Nuggets. Jokic torched the Mavs with 33 points on 12-20 shooting, including 4 threes, and 26 points in the second half. Dallas didn't have much of an answer for him, other than trying to counter with spectacular offense from Luka. Jerami Grant and Mason Plumlee combined for 25 points. The boys in blue struggled trying to keep Denver's burly bigs out of the paint. Could have used Porzee.
Remarks
Carlisle acknowledged that this was a tough, disappointing loss. He observed that neither team had played very well, and the final result came down to a couple of plays at the end. He admitted that the last two plays were poorly handled, and took responsibility for the cluster. On the last offensive play, the plan was to drive and kick, but Luka had to get rid of the ball very quickly, and the rest of the squad didn't respond well. Rick didn't think the loss was solely attributable to the miscues at the end, though. He called attention to numerous "lapses on details" during the game, declining to specify, but citing poor clock management at the ends of quarters as an example. Said they need to come out with more of an edge at home, and reminded the press that the team is still learning.
Hardaway noted that they let Denver get "too comfortable," and the opposition knocked down some contested threes. He said that somebody besides Luka and Wright needs to be willing to get into the paint, including himself, instead of settling. He encouraged the squad to stay in more of an attack-first mode.
The Locked on Mavericks guys had some interesting analysis. They pointed out the irony of the game being won on a post-up after the recent controversy about post-ups no longer being good plays. They ventured that Rick may have meant, but been unable to say, that post-ups are not a good play for the Mavs, although they may be for teams with the size, strength and skill to make them work. I don't take a position on that based on this game, but do note that, except for Luka, posting up is not a skill that the Mavs excel at, and they are somewhat undersized when it comes to defending such plays.
Nick and Isaac observed that one of the Mavs' weaknesses is being able to defend the league's prime big men, such as AD, Embiid, and Jokic. They don't have anyone who can take these guys on one-on-one, especially without KP on the floor. They viewed this as a hole in the Mavericks' defensive system, and were not sure whether it can be solved schematically, through internal improvement, or must be resolved by beefing up the squad.
Finally, the podcasters did some analysis of the Mavs' clutch performance this season, deeming it "officially a problem." In the clutch, the Mavs' average offensive rating drops from 115 to 92, while their defensive rating remains about the same. Essentially, the offense just completely falls apart (acknowledging that defense and offense are related and better defense might translate to better offense). It is a much worse problem when the team does not have Luka, or especially KP, on the floor, but is an issue even with both of them out there. Clutch performance was much better last season. In their view, this was because the squad had some veterans on the floor who knew what to do in such situations. This season's team gets exposed for what it is -- a very young team, where only a few guys have any NBA playoff experience at all, and Barea is the only one with any kind of experience with deep playoff runs. In playoff-like circumstances in the game, they often fall into a disorganized state. Harris attributed the loss to a combination of young-team growing pains and being shorthanded, with KP out.
My impressions. It is no shame to come within a couple of points of beating the Nuggets, who are one of the West's best teams. Under the circumstances, neither is it a particular point of pride. Although this team has shown itself capable of winning without Luka, they are less able to do that without KP, and our best short-term hope may be that Zinger comes back soon and maintains his health. I think it also might be helpful if the squad had any sort of offense to go to in the clutch other than the Luka/Dwight PNR. That combo is developing very well, but when they run it over and over again, they are too predictable. They did vary it occasionally with a Luka/THJ PNR, but it would be good if they had some kind of secondary offense to depend on when the occasion warrants.
Before the game, I thought Denver was going to be a very tough out for the Mavs, with their complement of powerful bigs and KP being out. Although the Mavericks were not crisp during the game, they competed better than I feared they would. I suppose the sunny side is that they managed to punch above their weight for the majority of the game. As far as finding an answer to the league's behemoths, I fear that may not be an issue that gets completely resolved this season. Likewise, the issues in the clutch may take some time and experience to come together. I know no one wants to hear that, and I hope I am wrong, but there is something about these problems that doesn't scream "quick fix." I think we can still enjoy this exciting young group's growth and progress as the season goes along, as they are still achieving at a high level, compared to almost anyone's pre-season expectations.
Next. Lakers, at the AAC on Friday night. Should be a fun match.