New CBA agreement

[DanSchwartzgan]

Thanks for the outline and your analysis.

 
2 Whether it's spent in free agency (including MLE and minimums), an add-on to the existing 3-way, banking a remainder TPE and then using it, sign-and-trades, a trade with a difference in salary coming and going, or some combo of those, the Mavs only have $X more left to add to current payroll (not counting minimums), and X isn't a real big number. It is somewhere in the vicinity of the MLE right now.
 

Unless you S/W Reggie (which is what the post says).  

The math is kind of interesting, but it requires the same qualifiers we've been using for weeks (14 players, Kyrie at $40mm to start and Holmes waives his TK).  If another incoming player is added to the Bertans/Holmes deal (with nothing outgoing), there is room as a trade match to take back $12,500,000 in round numbers.  $17mm (Bertans) + $7.5mm (Spread) - $12mm (Holmes) = $12.5mm.  That is basically a second MLE level salary whether it is used for a player under contract or a FA.  

Plug in that $12.5mm into the spreadsheet and add $1.8mm of dead money and spend the real MLE of $12.4mm.  It leaves you about half a million under the apron.  Adding a player making up to $12.5mm to the Bertans/Holmes deal doesn't wipe out use of the MLE.  You can do both and it fits almost perfectly.  Once you've used the spread in that way, you can add outgoing for incoming on a dollar-for-dollar basis (but you have to add a minimum wage guy to replace Reggie if you do that).  

If McGee goes out in the Bertans/Holmes deal...$12.5mm becomes $16.2mm of usable space to trade for someone ($18.2mm minus a minimum).  That is a $10.5mm trade spread and it doesn't change the ability to spend the MLE.  Replace McGee with THJ as additional outgoing in the Bertans/Holmes trade and we can literally bring in a player making $28.5mm player AND use the MLE.  Again, combining this with the open trade provides a $10.5mm trade spread instead of $7.5mm.  I can't imagine why they wouldn't consider using that technique with the wider trade spread (and therefore less incoming money for the other team) if there was a deal to be made out there.

The fatal flaw in all of this is the S/W of Reggie which is set to be decided mid week.  He wasn't very valuable to the on-court product last year, but he is $10.5mm of expiring money in a July deal in a year where expiring money is more valuable than usual.  If you don't use the S/W on him, then you are right.  You can't stack the trade, bring back extra money AND use the MLE.  You can still stack the trades and get an unusually high spread, but with Reggie's money still on the books, there isn't a path the the MLE in addition to the other.  

There is, however, room to stack more onto the Bertans/Holmes deal and use the TP MLE at $5mm.  You can stack Reggie onto the deal, use the TP MLE and bring back about $22mm (existing contract or S&T).  Sub McGee for Reggie as the stacked outgoing and you can get someone making $16.2mm and use the TP MLE and still be under the first apron.  $16mm and $22mm are better than $12.4mm, but it requires some work.  Even if we don't S/W Reggie, I'd probably rather shop in this part of the free agent market (and have the $5m MLE) than settle for the $12.4mm MLE.