01-21-2023, 10:18 AM
Every day we write posts about this guy we want or that guy we want to get rid of. Occasionally, we even give some thought to what the other team might want in our fantasy trades. Then there are the questions of timing and scale. Should we go all in? Should we be sellers? Should we look for the trade before THE trade which we hope comes this summer. Should we get two B level guys or wait for that 'second star'.
What we don't really do much is look at the roster on a multi-year basis taking into account contracts and player ages. We have that luxury as message board gurus, but teams have to think more strategically and their thinking has to carry beyond just the current season.
Kamm made a comment about being a seller yesterday and it got me to thinking. Is there a world where we are a seller before the TDL? Not 'tear-it-down' selling, but maybe a step backwards to take a step forward later. Some thoughts:
1. It would be way out of character. I can only think of one trade in the Cuban era where we dealt a decent veteran for a younger asset (Jamison for Devin) and that happened in the summer.
2. It would have to be something that didn't harm our ability to make the playoffs right now. Maybe not Top 4, but still in the playoffs.
3. There won't be much patience for losing, so there would need to be a clear path to the 'get better later' part.
4. There needs to be some thought as to how it impacts when we will pay the repeater tax going forward. This is year one. If we pay tax in 23/24, then 24/25 will be three of the last four years. Even if we are under in 23/24, we will hit three of four in 25/26. Luka's Super Max will kick in in 26/27.
5. Moves that use even a single first rounder now have a huge impact on the ability to do a bigger deal later. If a pick is to be used now, it better be for another long-term piece or someone who can grow into a long term piece.
When I think about the current roster, I divide it into four categories:
Expiring: Wood and Powell
Do they have value? Is it wise to retain either past this season? Powell's value outside of Dallas is mainly as expiring filler. Unfortunately, given the shortcomings of the roster, he probably has more value in Dallas that he does elsewhere.
Wood may have more value than Powell, but probably not a ton more. Yeah, he can score. His O-EPM puts him in the 86th percentile of centers (top 10). EPM lists 72 centers ahead of him defensively. As I've said before, I just can't find a team that would pay us something so that Wood can start for them. I think his best role is as a scoring bench big. What do those kinds of guys make? Unfortunately, the going rate for a scoring bench big is probably under what Wood can be extended for (what does Bobby Portis make). Dallas is in a Bird Rights Trap here and any team that traded for him will have the same issue. If Dallas keeps Wood, they need to do one of two things...1. put the right 'big wing' next to him. 2. Get a starting center who is obviously better who moves Wood back to the bench. The Wood decision is a great example of Rock and a Hard Place.
One Year Left: Reggie and Spencer
Reggie is about to turn 32 and will be 33 a year from now when his contract is up. Dallas will NOT retain him past his current contract. If some team wants to pay something for him, he's the ideal 'small step back' trade candidate. The only reason you keep Reggie is if he has more value this summer as an expiring contract than he does as an on-court contributor for a contender for the next 1.5 seasons.
Spencer is in a similar contract situation, only two years younger. Green is a ready made replacement for Bullock, but there is no such thing here if you move Dinwiddie. Do we extend him this summer or wait until Spencer is a 30 year old UFA in the summer of 24. Rock and a hard place again.
Two Years Left: THJ, Bertans and McGee
This is also the place Dallas would extend Wood to with a two year offer (expiring in 2025). How we deal with the guys in this category is probably as much tax related as it is on-court related. If we pay tax in 23/24, then the year these guys expire is our repeater year. As fans, we want Dallas to go-for-it financially in 23/24. They have a chance to get under the tax this summer and postpone repeater status by a year, which feels like the opposite of going for it. Right now they sit $19mm under the tax without Wood, Powell and without using any exception to fill out the minimum roster requirement.
If you extend Wood (or trade him for someone making similar money), you can't get under the tax in 23/24. Which leaves us repeating the next year with nearly $22mm in salary going to McGee and Bertans. Might you S/W one of them? Do you pay a cap room team to take one of them? THJ is about to turn 31 and will be 33 when his contract runs out in 2025. Like Bullard, he won't get another contract in Dallas. If you trade him for expiring LeVert, you create some flexibility to improve the team and stay under the tax next season. But, expiring LeVert essentially wipes out a 'salary slot' that can be used in trade. It is kind of like Minnesota and Russell. If you only take back an expiring deal like LeVert, you've damaged a path to improvement for the sake of money (which is why in my LeVert deals, I try to send him to a third team and bring back some young salary). THJ is having his best On/Off season ever and his 3% is at his career average. But, there is clear slippage in his advanced stats (VORP, BPM, WS/48, PER and his TS%) the last two years. A team that shoots a ton of 3's needs good three point shooting. Tim the starter is still a guy you want. But, can you play contender D with Tim, SD and Wood playing alongside Luka. Probably not. He's basically a one year longer version of the situation you are in with Reggie. He'll be a Rock and a Hard Place decision then, but because of the financial implications of that final year, you might want to deal with him sooner than later.
Longer than Two Years Left: DFS and Maxi
I won't spend any time on the longer contracts of Maxi and DFS. They are the culture-keepers of the team and paid at a rate that will be at or under the MLE by the time they expire. That means they can transition between starter and bench and you don't feel like you are overpaying. I'm not figuring the kids into this either. Josh is becoming exactly what you are looking for next to Luka and Hardy has a future as a bench microwave at the very least. I think a Josh extension this summer is an easy decision and if you want to trade Hardy, now is not the time to maximize value.
I think there are two interrelated decisions to be made. What do you do with Wood? And, do you trade Reggie or THJ now or later? I say interrelated because if you move Wood or push him to the bench with a better defender at the spot, then Starter THJ might be OK (despite what I said about his advanced stats slipping, Starter-Tim is still a valuable guy, but Starter-Tim can't start with Wood and SD and the team be a top-10 D). Interestingly, Reggie's numbers are better off the bench than they are as a starter. He's the more immediate financial decision, but it is easier to move him to the bench in favor of Josh (when the time is right) than it is with THJ. All three of these guys look great when they are hitting shots (at least at the offensive end). But, there is more to roster building than just that. Two of the three are going to 'age-out' in the not too distant future with no real way to replace them and one wants a big money long-term commitment or we risk losing him for nothing. He wants starter money and sees himself as being Luka's 1-A right now. Unfortunately, his game as a starter is much more suited to a bad team that needs to put butts in seats than it is to a team with championship aspirations during the life of his next contract. You have to either surround him better defensively than we do currently, trade him or find a defensive center who makes him a bench stud...which has its advantages.
What we don't really do much is look at the roster on a multi-year basis taking into account contracts and player ages. We have that luxury as message board gurus, but teams have to think more strategically and their thinking has to carry beyond just the current season.
Kamm made a comment about being a seller yesterday and it got me to thinking. Is there a world where we are a seller before the TDL? Not 'tear-it-down' selling, but maybe a step backwards to take a step forward later. Some thoughts:
1. It would be way out of character. I can only think of one trade in the Cuban era where we dealt a decent veteran for a younger asset (Jamison for Devin) and that happened in the summer.
2. It would have to be something that didn't harm our ability to make the playoffs right now. Maybe not Top 4, but still in the playoffs.
3. There won't be much patience for losing, so there would need to be a clear path to the 'get better later' part.
4. There needs to be some thought as to how it impacts when we will pay the repeater tax going forward. This is year one. If we pay tax in 23/24, then 24/25 will be three of the last four years. Even if we are under in 23/24, we will hit three of four in 25/26. Luka's Super Max will kick in in 26/27.
5. Moves that use even a single first rounder now have a huge impact on the ability to do a bigger deal later. If a pick is to be used now, it better be for another long-term piece or someone who can grow into a long term piece.
When I think about the current roster, I divide it into four categories:
Expiring: Wood and Powell
Do they have value? Is it wise to retain either past this season? Powell's value outside of Dallas is mainly as expiring filler. Unfortunately, given the shortcomings of the roster, he probably has more value in Dallas that he does elsewhere.
Wood may have more value than Powell, but probably not a ton more. Yeah, he can score. His O-EPM puts him in the 86th percentile of centers (top 10). EPM lists 72 centers ahead of him defensively. As I've said before, I just can't find a team that would pay us something so that Wood can start for them. I think his best role is as a scoring bench big. What do those kinds of guys make? Unfortunately, the going rate for a scoring bench big is probably under what Wood can be extended for (what does Bobby Portis make). Dallas is in a Bird Rights Trap here and any team that traded for him will have the same issue. If Dallas keeps Wood, they need to do one of two things...1. put the right 'big wing' next to him. 2. Get a starting center who is obviously better who moves Wood back to the bench. The Wood decision is a great example of Rock and a Hard Place.
One Year Left: Reggie and Spencer
Reggie is about to turn 32 and will be 33 a year from now when his contract is up. Dallas will NOT retain him past his current contract. If some team wants to pay something for him, he's the ideal 'small step back' trade candidate. The only reason you keep Reggie is if he has more value this summer as an expiring contract than he does as an on-court contributor for a contender for the next 1.5 seasons.
Spencer is in a similar contract situation, only two years younger. Green is a ready made replacement for Bullock, but there is no such thing here if you move Dinwiddie. Do we extend him this summer or wait until Spencer is a 30 year old UFA in the summer of 24. Rock and a hard place again.
Two Years Left: THJ, Bertans and McGee
This is also the place Dallas would extend Wood to with a two year offer (expiring in 2025). How we deal with the guys in this category is probably as much tax related as it is on-court related. If we pay tax in 23/24, then the year these guys expire is our repeater year. As fans, we want Dallas to go-for-it financially in 23/24. They have a chance to get under the tax this summer and postpone repeater status by a year, which feels like the opposite of going for it. Right now they sit $19mm under the tax without Wood, Powell and without using any exception to fill out the minimum roster requirement.
If you extend Wood (or trade him for someone making similar money), you can't get under the tax in 23/24. Which leaves us repeating the next year with nearly $22mm in salary going to McGee and Bertans. Might you S/W one of them? Do you pay a cap room team to take one of them? THJ is about to turn 31 and will be 33 when his contract runs out in 2025. Like Bullard, he won't get another contract in Dallas. If you trade him for expiring LeVert, you create some flexibility to improve the team and stay under the tax next season. But, expiring LeVert essentially wipes out a 'salary slot' that can be used in trade. It is kind of like Minnesota and Russell. If you only take back an expiring deal like LeVert, you've damaged a path to improvement for the sake of money (which is why in my LeVert deals, I try to send him to a third team and bring back some young salary). THJ is having his best On/Off season ever and his 3% is at his career average. But, there is clear slippage in his advanced stats (VORP, BPM, WS/48, PER and his TS%) the last two years. A team that shoots a ton of 3's needs good three point shooting. Tim the starter is still a guy you want. But, can you play contender D with Tim, SD and Wood playing alongside Luka. Probably not. He's basically a one year longer version of the situation you are in with Reggie. He'll be a Rock and a Hard Place decision then, but because of the financial implications of that final year, you might want to deal with him sooner than later.
Longer than Two Years Left: DFS and Maxi
I won't spend any time on the longer contracts of Maxi and DFS. They are the culture-keepers of the team and paid at a rate that will be at or under the MLE by the time they expire. That means they can transition between starter and bench and you don't feel like you are overpaying. I'm not figuring the kids into this either. Josh is becoming exactly what you are looking for next to Luka and Hardy has a future as a bench microwave at the very least. I think a Josh extension this summer is an easy decision and if you want to trade Hardy, now is not the time to maximize value.
I think there are two interrelated decisions to be made. What do you do with Wood? And, do you trade Reggie or THJ now or later? I say interrelated because if you move Wood or push him to the bench with a better defender at the spot, then Starter THJ might be OK (despite what I said about his advanced stats slipping, Starter-Tim is still a valuable guy, but Starter-Tim can't start with Wood and SD and the team be a top-10 D). Interestingly, Reggie's numbers are better off the bench than they are as a starter. He's the more immediate financial decision, but it is easier to move him to the bench in favor of Josh (when the time is right) than it is with THJ. All three of these guys look great when they are hitting shots (at least at the offensive end). But, there is more to roster building than just that. Two of the three are going to 'age-out' in the not too distant future with no real way to replace them and one wants a big money long-term commitment or we risk losing him for nothing. He wants starter money and sees himself as being Luka's 1-A right now. Unfortunately, his game as a starter is much more suited to a bad team that needs to put butts in seats than it is to a team with championship aspirations during the life of his next contract. You have to either surround him better defensively than we do currently, trade him or find a defensive center who makes him a bench stud...which has its advantages.
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