Why the Mavs are Potentially Much Better Already...

[DanSchwartzgan]

Not trying to be an a…but would that not be true ONLY if the system did not change? 

…just saying that with a new coach and supposedly a new system, these kind of comparisons are not valid….

A few points...

1. Do we know that the offensive system is going to change that much?  Seems to me maximizing Luka calls for a huge percentage of the offense to look just like it has looked the last two seasons (and the Olympics).  I think change will come only around the fringes offensively.  I do suspect the defensive system will change more than the offensive system.

2.  People assume offensive fit was the issue with JRich.  But, the O was basically the same with JRich On or Off.  It was the D that improved by 4.6 points when JRich sat.  It wasn't like he was being replaced by some defensive savant.  Typically it was Hardaway or Brunson who took his place.

3. Lineups are fragile ecosystems.  Change one element and everything blows up (or improves dramatically).  


Both Wright and JRich came here with a history of positive on-off and had horrendous numbers here (ironically, -4.7 for Wright and -4.7 for JRich).  JRich was part of some wildly successful lineups.  The most used was Luka, JRich, DFS, Maxi and KP at +12.  The second was largely as teams were transitioning to their bench and included Brunson, JRich, THJ, DFS and KP at +14.   You can't be that good in the most used lineups and that bad overall without some really bad lineups using other combinations.  

As I said before, JRich's issue was defense.  Luka's worst defensive pairing was KP at a D-Rating of 117.7.  Second worst was JRich at 114.5.  If a guard can't hit 3's and can't protect Luka defensively, why exactly is he here?  What can Bullock (and Sterling) do that JRich couldn't?  Hit 3's and play D.  The more of that you can add next to Luka, the less fragile the ecosystem will be.  So far we've seen the primary guard next to Luka be Smith Jr., THJ/Curry (the Wright minutes with Luka were pretty limited) and Richardson.  The three jobs for that position are secondary creator, hit 3's and play good D against the other team's primary guard creator.  None of those guys were great creators (neither is Bullock) and none checked both of the other two boxes (3's AND D).  At the very least Bullock hits 3's and is arguably the best defender of the bunch also.