Incoming powder keg?

[mavsluvr]

Other. Tweaks need to be made but ultimately I think it will be more than minor tweaks needed. It won't be a blow up because we should keep the Luka KP core but I would not be surprised at all to see us maybe take on CP3's contract during trade season if it becomes clear that more than a minor tweak is needed. We'll get to that bridge when we come to it though, it's still a while until trade season opens. For now we just keep making evaluations

I keep seeing this idea floated here and there, and would like to understand it better. 

It is hard for me to imagine that the Mavs would have any part of CP3 at this point, because --

1.  His contract is truly a monstrosity. He gets around $40M/season, and has two seasons beyond this one left on his contract. 

     a.  Trying to salary match a contract like that is daunting. I don't know what the Mavs would have to offer to even come close. The only reason OKC could do it is because Russ also had a mega contract.

      b.  Paul is a declining player, and that contract, even were it match-able, would prohibit the organization from otherwise improving the team just in the seasons when they most need to get better. 

2.  Paul is not in sync with the time frame of the organization. He is 34 years old and on the down side of the hill, while the other two stars are in their early twenties and on the rise. 

3.  Paul doesn't play a position of need for the Mavs. Luka is the point guard. Luka can also play off the ball, but we have no indication that he is ready or willing to give up his position as floor general. Paul would improve the bench, for sure, but it doesn't make sense to pay $40M/season for a backup PG. 

4.  Paul is undersized, even for his position. That has contributed, imo, to some of his difficulties at the highest level. He has been on numerous very stacked teams, talent-wise, but has nevertheless never even been to the Finals. And some of that is clearly attributable to his struggles against bigger players deep in the playoffs. 

5.  Paul is not the superstar he used to be. Quite the opposite. When the Rox signed him for four years last season, I am sure they expected to get less than their money's worth toward the end of the term, but I think it surprised even them that his decline was so swift. OKC is in the cellar of the conference this season. Paul can still shoot, but he is no longer a high-quality defender. 


These are the things that occur to me when I hear these CP3 rumors. However, I hear them enough to think they must make sense to someone. What am I failing to see?

It's premature now and does depend on what happens between now and trade season, but it is a contingency that should be on our list. But if it becomes tempting here would be my reactions to those concerns

1. The contract? Who cares. We are demonstrably terrible at improving the team in free agency anyway except for bargain bin deals and trades, keeping cap space for 2021 is a fool's errand. 

a. THJ and Lee would be the offer, OKC gets knocked out of luxury tax territory and we don't lose anything important and yes it's legal. If Presti wants more it's moot and good luck dumping that contract

b. What makes you think the MBT could improve the team with space after these last few offseasons? They've lost that benefit of the doubt. The 2011 team except for Dirk was built from trades

2. Yeah, they said that about Jason Kidd too. Luka is only guaranteed to be here two more years after this one, being too passive about immediate improvement is risky

3. CP3 is one of the only players I can think of who is proven successful next to a player as ball dominant as Luka, and his age makes it so he doesn't want to run the whole show anymore so it fits. He averaged 15 and 8 next to Harden's career year last season and he'd likely have a ring if he didn't get injured in game 5 the year before. We'd be similar to that Houston team but with KP instead of Capela. And yeah, he wouldn't be a backup on this roster

4. Size isn't exactly our biggest concern right now. I would say that he was an injury away from helping to conquer the Warriors at full strength. There aren't even the Warriors at full strength standing in anybody's way this season

5. 15-8 average next to Harden and even last season it was working against the Warriors again when the series was at 2-2. Until KD got hurt which kind of ruined the Rockets' defensive plans which relied on baiting KD into bad chucks and ruining the teams' rhythm. 

We botched our best chance over the next few years to seriously improve the team this offseason if what we have now isn't sufficient, and thanks to some trades we're low on picks again. We're not loaded with avenues for improving the team over the next couple of seasons and I don't trust powder. The thought is this trade would at least be taking a serious swing at bringing in some more serious talent for now without really losing anything. FWIW CP3 is the only player I have ever heard publicly express any interest in playing for Rick, and that had to do with what he saw with Jason Kidd here. Last 34 year old talented asshole point guard we traded for worked out pretty well. Of course this is assuming it still looks like a possibility come trade season so right now it's just wait and see and keep this as one of many ideas to keep on the back burner

Thanks for this detailed reply, Mr. Goat. Interesting thoughts. 

You appear to be making an argument on a fan-to-fan basis, which is what we are, of course. My question is not so much whether a twinkle-in-our-eye case can be made for the trade as what would tempt the actual Mavs/OKC front offices to see it as beneficial. As fans, we don't have to care how much a player costs versus his value, we can say we might as well go all in on a fading, oft-injured star because the front office is incompetent to make use of alternative opportunities anyway, etc. The owners will not be thinking that way. 

Afaik, the source for this Paul-to-the-Mavs idea seems to be an article suggesting that this might be an great trade, where a guy was just noodling around, rather than reporting anything. Do you know of something suggesting that either front office is actually interested in this in real life? 

I don't doubt that OKC would be open to trading Paul. I think that was the idea when they got him. But so far, they have reportedly resisted throwing in much at all in the way of sweeteners to compensate for taking on Paul's contract, even though they received a bunch of draft picks and swaps for doing so themselves. If they do decide to pull the trigger, I can't see that they would want Lee and Hardaway, who both have bloated contracts as well. But who knows?

I would be surprised if either team's ownership/management group finds a Paul/Lee-Hardaway trade by itself as attractive. If you have reports otherwise, I of course am always open to being convinced by facts. You say Paul wants to come here? I readily admit, I have been surprised before. 

All this aside, it is interesting as a fan to come up with ideas to add talent, and I am not intending to throw cold water on any creative thoughts in that direction. And as you say, this is one of many propositions on the burner. A lot of proposals that might look like long shots today can evolve into realistic possibilities once the time comes for pulling the trigger.

I guess we'll see what happens! 

Appreciate the response!