(05-25-2021, 06:19 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: The thing is, Kawhi did cover Luka on a fairly large number of plays. The Mav's just forced the switch...often to Zubac. Next thing you know, Leonard is covering Maxi. LA did have more success with Ibaka in the game, but his time was mainly against our bench.
If LA goes with a guard on Luka, we can still hunt the switch with a center or Luka can go into the post.
Agree that, if the Clippers maintain their switching defense, then saying Kawhi (or anyone else) is going to guard Luka is essentially meaningless, except to the extent it requires them to play switchable guys.
If they double Luka, we are playing 4 on 3 with some fairly talented offensive players from among KP, THJ, Maxi, DFS and Brunson.
If they have to, I think this is a risk they will take. We'll have to see whether the Mavericks role players and/or KP are up to the challenge for a whole series. But agree that it is a risky strategy.
Leonard can fight through the picks, but you essentially have two guys guarding Luka. That opens up room for rim runners to roll and pick and poppers to pop. We have all sorts of action where players other than KP, Powell and WCS set picks. This is one of the benefits of starting THJ.
Thanks for mentioning this, as I don't think it gets discussed enough. The Mavs use THJ-Luka screens pretty often, with good success. Others participate, as well.
At some point LA is going to have to try something like Morris, Batum, KL, PG and Rondo. They don't get punished for switching, but this creates other problems. They can't run this for 48 minutes and our bench is good enough to take advantage of what is left. Second, there is no rim protection and Willie and Dwight now have a role to play. But, you probably don't have the starters averaging +15 in a scenario like this LA has now forced other people to beat them.
Yes, I look for them to use their small lineups a little more, and I think they are very comfortable with that style of play. I am actually hoping for better play from our bench as a whole than we saw in Game One. There were some good individual contributions (Brunson in the fourth, Richardson in short minutes), but overall, I doubt if the Clippers are very worried about facing them again. That could change if, as you suggest, roles open up for DP and Willie.
FWIW, I see three scenarios for tonight. The ask is that we don't all go Negative Nancy when the most likely of these happens.
70% Chance our game looks like last nights double digit Portland loss
20% Chance we lose a close one and are bummed we let one slip away
10% Chance we somehow win
Common wisdom is you get one of these two on the road and then hold home court 3 times. It will show GREAT maturity if we make a tight game of it. But, I'm concerned we will be happy with getting one in LA and will play satisfied while the wounded dog plays hungry.
Thanks for your well-thought-out comments, Dan.
As I was watching the Nuggets pounding Portland, I was thinking this could be the scenario for the Mavericks in Game Two. If they decide they have already accomplished their mission in LA by winning Game One, that is particularly likely.
But, the 2011 series goes to show you never can tell.
We'll see what rabbits Ty Lue pulls out of his hat tonight.