05-25-2021, 06:19 AM
(05-24-2021, 11:56 PM)mavsluvr Wrote: Heard some discussion of the Kawhi-countered-with-screens idea on one of the pods. They were speculating that this might be a case of Lue's having confidence in Kawhi's being able to stick with Luka, due to some scouting that the Mavs set such bad screens.
The thing is, Kawhi did cover Luka on a fairly large number of plays. The Mav's just forced the switch...often to Zubac. Next thing you know, Leonard is covering Maxi. LA did have more success with Ibaka in the game, but his time was mainly against our bench.
If LA goes with a guard on Luka, we can still hunt the switch with a center or Luka can go into the post.
If they double Luka, we are playing 4 on 3 with some fairly talented offensive players from among KP, THJ, Maxi, DFS and Brunson.
Leonard can fight through the picks, but you essentially have two guys guarding Luka. That opens up room for rim runners to roll and pick and poppers to pop. We have all sorts of action where players other than KP, Powell and WCS set picks. This is one of the benefits of starting THJ.
At some point LA is going to have to try something like Morris, Batum, KL, PG and Rondo. They don't get punished for switching, but this creates other problems. They can't run this for 48 minutes and our bench is good enough to take advantage of what is left. Second, there is no rim protection and Willie and Dwight now have a role to play. But, you probably don't have the starters averaging +15 in a scenario like this LA has now forced other people to beat them.
FWIW, I see three scenarios for tonight. The ask is that we don't all go Negative Nancy when the most likely of these happens.
70% Chance our game looks like last nights double digit Portland loss
20% Chance we lose a close one and are bummed we let one slip away
10% Chance we somehow win
Common wisdom is you get one of these two on the road and then hold home court 3 times. It will show GREAT maturity if we make a tight game of it. But, I'm concerned we will be happy with getting one in LA and will play satisfied while the wounded dog plays hungry.