(05-17-2021, 09:10 PM)Kammrath Wrote: So you are saying my random stab at 20% was pretty damn accurate? Nice.
No, sir, I didn't make any guesses (educated or otherwise) about the relevant probabilities. Draft Kings, on the other hand, seems to think that the smart money will come fairly close to agreeing with you (unless your "at best" qualifier swallows a significant chunk of your "20%"). [21.739% < Pₘ < 27.027%]
My statements were just simple arithmetical facts (like 2 + 2 = 4), having nothing to do with the Mavs, or the Clippers, or basketball.
100C₀ = 360(1 - C₀)
100C₀ = 360 - 360C₀
460C₀ = 360
C₀ = 360/460 = 78.261%
270M₀ = 100(1 - M₀)
270M₀ = 100 - 100M₀
370M₀ = 100
M₀ = 100/370 = 27.027%