(05-08-2021, 12:42 PM)meistermatze Wrote: So out only fear is to fall back behind the Blazers because they have the tiebreaker over us. But we are now two games ahead of the Lakers plus we own the tie-breaker.
Is it too early to say we avoided the play-in scenario?
I guess everything can happen with this squad but realistically, we should be in excellent shape to at elast get that 6th spot, right?
The Mavs are 39-28 with 5 games remaining. If the Mavs lose ALL FIVE of their remaining games, then they will still have a better record (39-33) than San Antonio, New Orleans, Sacramento, Oklahoma City, Minnesota, Houston, and the loser of the Golden State vs. Memphis game on Sunday, May 16.
Golden State is currently 34-33 with 5 games remaining. If Golden State goes 5-0 over the next eight days, they will finish 39-33 (which is the worst possible record achievable by the Mavs), but the Mavs have already clinched the head-to-head tie-breaker vs. the Warriors.
Memphis is currently 33-33 with 6 games remaining. If Memphis goes 6-0 over the next eight days (including a win vs. the Mavs on May 11), they will finish 39-33 (which is the worst possible record achievable by the Mavs), but the Mavs have already clinched the head-to-head tie-breaker vs. the Grizzlies.
Therefore, the worst spot the Mavs can get is the #7 play-in position.
At the other end of the spectrum, if the Mavs win ALL FIVE of their remaining games, and the Nuggets lose ALL FIVE of their remaining games, then Denver and Dallas will both finish 44-28, so the Mavs will be the #4 seed (by virtue of winning two out of three games against the Nuggets).
Now ...
Considering the two most relevant opponents of the Mavs (Lakers and Trail Blazers) ...
The Mavs are 39-28.
The Blazers are 38-29.
The Lakers are 37-30.
The Blazers own the head-to-head tie-breaker versus both the Mavs and the Lakers.
The Mavs own the head-to-head tie-breaker versus the Lakers.
The Mavs (who have now clinched the Southwest Division) own the tie-breaker in the event of a three-way tie with the Blazers and Lakers.
Ignoring Portland ...
If the Mavs finish 3-2 (or better), and the Lakers finish 5-0 (or worse), then the Mavs will be 42-30 (or better), the Lakers will be 42-30 (or worse), and the Mavs have the edge over the Lakers either by better record or by tie-breaker.
If the Mavs finish 2-3 (or better), and the Lakers finish 4-1 (or worse), then the Mavs will be 41-31 (or better), the Lakers will be 41-31 (or worse), and the Mavs have the edge over the Lakers either by better record or by tie-breaker.
If the Mavs finish 1-4 (or better), and the Lakers finish 3-2 (or worse), then the Mavs will be 40-32 (or better), the Lakers will be 40-32 (or worse), and the Mavs have the edge over the Lakers either by better record or by tie-breaker.
If the Mavs finish 0-5 (or better), and the Lakers finish 2-3 (or worse), then the Mavs will be 39-33 (or better), the Lakers will be 39-33 (or worse), and the Mavs have the edge over the Lakers either by better record or by tie-breaker.
Finally ...
To stay ahead of Portland, the Mavs must simply win as many (or more) of their last five games as Portland wins out of their last five games.