04-20-2021, 10:36 AM
(04-20-2021, 07:45 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: What is the source for that?This post and your other one on Hardaway are excellent analysis on the state of the situation. If the board had advanced stats you would be the leader(Kam is up there too). Tremendous on/off. We are all Dan Schwartzfans
82Games, the founder of which the Mav's used to employ, has a Net PER number which compares a players PER contribution to that of his direct opponent on the other team. Josh gets 42% of our minutes at SG and is -1.9 Net PER. That doesn't speak exactly to your question. You can have a bad number because of your O or your D. Where we lose production at Josh's position is he gives away 2.7 points per 48. 1.3 of that comes from taking fewer shot attempts and the rest from giving up .538 in EFG% compared to the .490 he posts himself. He also gives up two boards per 48 to his direct opponent. That doesn't speak to his D necessarily. .538% isn't bad, but the .490% is. For comparison, Brunson gives up .506 to PG's and .624% to SG's (they consider him a SG when in with Burke). THJ gives up .527 EFG% at SF. Both are MUCH better offensively and post Net Positives compared to their positional opponent. Disclaimer...I have no idea what their source for the data is. Do they just use the guy on the other team that plays the same spot? Or, do they track switches and who is the closest player when a shot goes up (which is why I asked the source of your numbers).
The theory at 82Games is to combine this metric (how you and your opponent compare) and On/Off (your impact on various lineups) to get an overall evaluation. Josh comes up negative on both counts. The other "compilation" stats don't paint a great picture of his D either. LEBRON-D is in the 34th percentile. D-RPM is in the 60th percentile. Defensive Raptor is in the 46th percentile. Luck Adjusted D-RAPM is in the 28th percentile and Defensive BPM is in the 36th percentile. This would seem to point to what others have said...activity doesn't equate to effectiveness. There are issues with all of these, especially on the defensive end. But, when they all tell the same story from different angles, it is probably worth paying attention to.
What about the rest of the team? Doncic, Brunson THJ and KP are the only players who beat their direct opponent in Net PER. DFS does when playing SF, but doesn't at PF. Maxi, JRich, Powell and WCS don't come close. Doncic, Brunson, DFS, Maxi, Powell and WCS show up positively in On/Off. Literally only Doncic, Brunson and DFS (at SF only) show up well at both. Note that KP was slightly positive in On/Off through 4/5, but the last two weeks have taken his entire season to -1.9.
Maxi is an interesting case. His counterpart kills us, but it comes from taking 8.6 more shots and 4 more FT's per 48, not because Maxi is giving up a high percentage...he's not. But then Maxi is one of the On/Off darlings of the team. So, there is either something about his fit that really works in the lineup data, or there is something about who subs in for him that doesn't work. It is the latter. DFS, Johnson and Melli have gotten killed by opposing PF's which makes Maxi's On and his Off look better by comparison. To understand this better think of the ratings of the PF's we had while Dirk was here. They were almost always worse than horrible. But, some of those guys were good players. The issue is if they were playing PF, Dirk wasn't and Dirk was one of the best On/Off guys in the league. When we hear PF rumors, my belief is we want to move Maxi to the bench and get fewer DFS at PF minutes. That and that mystical SG unicorn that is perfect next to Luka (think Holliday, Ball, Brogdon) are the biggest holes. It is why almost every rumor we hear is about these two positions.
Hardaway 2 vs 3. DFS 3 vs 4. Puzzling numbers for Maxi and JRich. The unicorns needed for the SG and PF positions. To me it’s all the same problem. Luka and KP together create a laundry list of team needs to be filled by the 3 other guys on the court. Especially by the SG and PF. Especially defensively. It’s a chain reaction that ultimately will be too much to overcome.
Maxi/replacement must: guard the opponents best 4/5, rebound, switch to smaller players on the perimeter, protect the rim, set all the screens offensively, be the roll man, shoot 3’s and more
JRich/replacement must: guard the opponents PG, cover two players when using drop coverage on PnR, help defense, handle the ball, create for others, distribute to others, shoot volume 3’s at a high rate and more
These players we need aren’t available in trade/FA this offseason. It only works with Jrue/Covington level players that aren’t easy to find. It makes more sense to move one of the stars and balance the duties evenly. Luka has the higher ceiling and better excuse for not playing defense (his elite production driving/distributing uses a great amount of energy)