04-20-2021, 03:20 AM
SleepingHero Wrote: Wrote:What if the lack of talent at our other 3 positions is causing the Luka/KP pairing to look much worse?
There is kind of a chicken vs. the egg issue with trying to prove your point. For instance, Powell and WCS look really good defensively in On/Off data. Is it because they are really good defensively or because they aren't on the court when KP is on the court?
If your theory is correct, the place to start looking is THJ and JRich. According to 82games.com, they are by far our two most negative regulars in terms of Net On-Off. Both are putting up really bad defensive numbers. KP and Luka are also, but at least KP and Luka contribute positive On-Off numbers offensively.
Lineup data backs this up. Get this...We have only FOUR negative Net Rating pairs among pairs with over 300 minutes together. THJ/JRich is -6.2. THJ/KP is -4.5. THJ/Maxi is -1.7 and THJ/DFS is -0.9. Notice a pattern? Let that sink in a minute. Those negative THJ lineups are the only negative two man lineups we have among ALL pairings with over 300 minutes.
JRich is Luka's worst pairing at 0.7. If you go to three man lineups, the THJ/JRich/Luka combo at -6.6 is Luka's worst lineup followed by THJ/KP/Luka at -5.6. KP has several bad three man lineups including the one I just mentioned and THJ/KP/DFS at -6.9 and THJ/KP/JRich at -5.3. It does appear that THJ or JRich (or THJ and JRich) are negatively impacting the on court success of our stars (or our stars are negatively impacting the on court success of THJ and JRich, but wouldn't Brunson, Maxi and DFS also be suffering if that were the case?).
THJ has seen a big drop off in April and I'm tempted to throw him under the bus. But, it wasn't this bad last season...in fact, it was good (5.6 On and 1.7 On-Off). In both this and last season he's been better as a SG than as a SF (but he rarely plays SG this season). A lot of that SG time last season came in the very successful Luka/THJ/DFS/Powell/KP lineup which hasn't been tried this season. This season Maxi has supplanted Powell, but we've only seen 22 minutes of Luka/THJ/DFS/Maxi/KP. Net Rating is 10. In much the same way we struggle when DFS plays PF (but do great when he's SF), I wonder if JRich's arrival and Brunson's emergence has pushed THJ into a spot where he struggles to succeed. Of course, the whole reason JRich was brought in (and DWright before him) is someone has to guard the point of attack and Luka and THJ are ill suited. THJ might have more value as a SG, but it won't be on a team with Luka as PG.