11-28-2020, 01:38 PM
(This post was last modified: 11-28-2020, 02:14 PM by KillerLeft.)
Not going to try to predict how Carlisle plays this on opening night, because A) there’s a lot of temporary injury concern to navigate and B) we know he’s going to spend the first month (at least) trying every lineup he can think of to see what the analytics shake out for him.
Here’s how I see it working if/when they’re healthy. Note: I’m going to assume Powell is still Powell, even though I admit there’s a good chance he is not.
OFFENSE:
PG: Luka
WINGS: THJ, Richardson (interchangeable, really, except I expect Richardson to handle the ball more)
FORWARD: DFS (could also be Kleber here, but I bet DFS is the first choice)
CENTER: KP
The above will be LETHAL, as long as Richardson isn’t scared to shoot like Wright was.
Same lineup, on DEFENSE:
GUARDS: Richardson, THJ
FORWARDS: Luka, DFS
CENTER: KP
I’m not sure we know yet whether Carlisle believes in switching to the extreme that some other coaches do, but the group above is good enough to experiment with it, imo. Obviously, KP is not switchable at all, but I think (hope) Carlisle can work around that.
BENCH, in order of approximate importance:
KLEBER is pretty switchable, and I expect him to play a lot of minutes at the 5 this year, especially while KP is down. The best thing about him, though, is that he can play WITH any of the other bigs on the roster. So, he’ll see plenty of time at the 4, too. I think he’ll start some games, and I think he’ll finish some games he doesn’t start.
BURKE is a bit of a mystery, I think. I imagine some fans believe he will be the 10th or 11th man, but I expect him to be asked to pick up right where he left off against the clippers. I think he will be responsible for most of the bench scoring, and knowing they could get him on this deal made the Mavs feel better about letting Curry go in a trade. Further, while he will never be the shooter Curry is, I fully expect that he will do more for the Mavericks in the “bench scoring” role than Curry did. I think he is more aggressive, less hung up on his percentages, more dynamic and versatile, and I think he fights a lot harder on the defensive end. I actually think HE will finish games sometimes, just as he did against the clippers. Especially if there are injury concerns that pop up for guys like Richardson or THJ. If the Mavericks have anybody involved in the sixth man of the year conversation this season, my guess is that it’s Burke.
POWELL, I believe, will be given every opportunity to keep a big-minute job on this team, provided he is healthy enough to play at all. We know that Carlisle won’t play him if he is decidedly not effective, but we ALSO know that he will try using Powell in a variety of different ways BEFORE deciding he’s not helping. To that point, I fully expect that we will see more than one game in which he starts next to either KP or Kleber in the two-big system with which they started last season. If that doesn’t stick, I think he will be given first crack at any/all backup center minutes. These backup minutes can still be a big role, since, again, he can remain on the floor and play WITH KP or Kleber when they return. Basically, I am sure that whether they want to start games with two bigs or not, they DEFINITELY want the option of playing that way at times. If Powell isn’t effective enough to be the solution for that, I believe the other choices might be scary for the Mavs.
This will be a make or brake year for BRUNSON, I believe. If he can more consistently reach what he has flashed as his top level of play, that’s a nice player, imo. I am guessing he is still the guy who will get first crack at being the primary ball handler during the 15 minutes Luka sits, but his chance to remain part of the plan here into the future probably depends on A) staying healthy and B) learning how to flourish off-ball, because on THIS team, your value is mostly determined by how well you can play WITH Luka. I fully expect that we will see Brunson played WITH Burke at times, and somehow, some members of this community will still be surprised, even after all these years of watching Carlisle go to quick lineups to get an edge for stretches. I don’t think Brunson’s role has been usurped by Burke or Terry, but their presence on the roster should communicate to him that he needs to take his game up a notch this season.
I believe that the ABOVE is what the Mavs are hoping their 9-man playoff rotation becomes, if everything goes according to plan. As we know, things rarely go 100% according to plan for any team, so...
IWUNDU and JOHNSON, I believe, will both be given sporadic chances to integrate themselves into the flow. Minutes wise, I think we’ll see them play the kind of minutes Jackson and Wright played last season. More chances at the beginning, not much time late-season (again, if all goes according to plan). Since neither of them is being heralded in by the owner as the 5th starter, I think both have a chance of being viewed as positive contributors. IWUNDU is decent insurance for DFS and also fits into the small defensive role gap that lives between DFS and Richardson. Johnson, I think, will be a backup to DFS/Kleber at the 4, and might even see some time at the 5 in extreme small situations. I think he’s likely the to get lots of chances to find his footing early in the season while KP and Powell’s situations have Carlisle scrambling a bit.
It will be interesting to see whether GREEN and TERRY are given the same kind of opportunity as the two players mentioned in the paragraph above, especially since this is a condensed season with no summer league. Essentially, every incoming rookie has put themselves through summer league, but I doubt many of them were able to accomplish what they would’ve accomplished with the help of people employed by their new teams. Long term, I see Green as a guy who guards the same people Richardson guards, but who plays more like DFS on offense. Terry might be more playable early, since his elite skill (shooting) is more likely to transfer to this level right away. I can’t wait to see what the Mavs’ approach is with these two guys. I think it’s really good that they are not written into the playoff rotation in pen, but I’m hoping we’ll get to see them a little, just to satisfy my own selfish entertainment needs.
WCS should probably be a bit higher, but I’m not sure where, really. I think he is the most logical solution to replace some of what Powell provides, if/when the team decides Powell can no longer provide it. But, I don’t think we’ll see a scenario where he replaces Powell at the same level of minutes Powell has played in the past. He might start some games at center early, or he might play a fairly prominent bench role early. From there, it’s all up to him, really. Whether you are a fan of his or a hater of his, I anticipate that you will be upset with how he is used. I don’t think either camp will be happy, tbh. My best guess is that he’ll get Boban minutes, only on different nights.
Speaking of BOBAN, I think he will be used exactly the same way he was last year. When Carlisle feels the situation plays to his strengths, I think he will be leaned on quite a bit. But, since most situations don’t, I anticipate another long season of “why doesn’t Carlisle play that guy so we can win?”
I am so, so excited that the Mavs drafted TYLER BEY, but I don’t anticipate him getting much of a chance to break through this season. Maybe some minutes early on, but probably a lot of shots of him wearing street clothes behind the bench when everyone is healthy. Whether you view him as a 4, as I do, or you’re hoping he’s a 3, it’s clear either outcome will take a WHILE. Marion wasn’t a true SF until well into his 30’s for example. Still, this shouldn’t discourage anyone, because this is the exact type of investment into youth that many of us feel the Mavericks have overlooked too often in the past. He might play the least out of everyone on this list, but in some ways he is in the top five or six in terms of excitement generated, at least for me.
That’s all I got. Flame away!
Geez, I have to stop trying to voice dictate these things… So many typos.
Here’s how I see it working if/when they’re healthy. Note: I’m going to assume Powell is still Powell, even though I admit there’s a good chance he is not.
OFFENSE:
PG: Luka
WINGS: THJ, Richardson (interchangeable, really, except I expect Richardson to handle the ball more)
FORWARD: DFS (could also be Kleber here, but I bet DFS is the first choice)
CENTER: KP
The above will be LETHAL, as long as Richardson isn’t scared to shoot like Wright was.
Same lineup, on DEFENSE:
GUARDS: Richardson, THJ
FORWARDS: Luka, DFS
CENTER: KP
I’m not sure we know yet whether Carlisle believes in switching to the extreme that some other coaches do, but the group above is good enough to experiment with it, imo. Obviously, KP is not switchable at all, but I think (hope) Carlisle can work around that.
BENCH, in order of approximate importance:
KLEBER is pretty switchable, and I expect him to play a lot of minutes at the 5 this year, especially while KP is down. The best thing about him, though, is that he can play WITH any of the other bigs on the roster. So, he’ll see plenty of time at the 4, too. I think he’ll start some games, and I think he’ll finish some games he doesn’t start.
BURKE is a bit of a mystery, I think. I imagine some fans believe he will be the 10th or 11th man, but I expect him to be asked to pick up right where he left off against the clippers. I think he will be responsible for most of the bench scoring, and knowing they could get him on this deal made the Mavs feel better about letting Curry go in a trade. Further, while he will never be the shooter Curry is, I fully expect that he will do more for the Mavericks in the “bench scoring” role than Curry did. I think he is more aggressive, less hung up on his percentages, more dynamic and versatile, and I think he fights a lot harder on the defensive end. I actually think HE will finish games sometimes, just as he did against the clippers. Especially if there are injury concerns that pop up for guys like Richardson or THJ. If the Mavericks have anybody involved in the sixth man of the year conversation this season, my guess is that it’s Burke.
POWELL, I believe, will be given every opportunity to keep a big-minute job on this team, provided he is healthy enough to play at all. We know that Carlisle won’t play him if he is decidedly not effective, but we ALSO know that he will try using Powell in a variety of different ways BEFORE deciding he’s not helping. To that point, I fully expect that we will see more than one game in which he starts next to either KP or Kleber in the two-big system with which they started last season. If that doesn’t stick, I think he will be given first crack at any/all backup center minutes. These backup minutes can still be a big role, since, again, he can remain on the floor and play WITH KP or Kleber when they return. Basically, I am sure that whether they want to start games with two bigs or not, they DEFINITELY want the option of playing that way at times. If Powell isn’t effective enough to be the solution for that, I believe the other choices might be scary for the Mavs.
This will be a make or brake year for BRUNSON, I believe. If he can more consistently reach what he has flashed as his top level of play, that’s a nice player, imo. I am guessing he is still the guy who will get first crack at being the primary ball handler during the 15 minutes Luka sits, but his chance to remain part of the plan here into the future probably depends on A) staying healthy and B) learning how to flourish off-ball, because on THIS team, your value is mostly determined by how well you can play WITH Luka. I fully expect that we will see Brunson played WITH Burke at times, and somehow, some members of this community will still be surprised, even after all these years of watching Carlisle go to quick lineups to get an edge for stretches. I don’t think Brunson’s role has been usurped by Burke or Terry, but their presence on the roster should communicate to him that he needs to take his game up a notch this season.
I believe that the ABOVE is what the Mavs are hoping their 9-man playoff rotation becomes, if everything goes according to plan. As we know, things rarely go 100% according to plan for any team, so...
IWUNDU and JOHNSON, I believe, will both be given sporadic chances to integrate themselves into the flow. Minutes wise, I think we’ll see them play the kind of minutes Jackson and Wright played last season. More chances at the beginning, not much time late-season (again, if all goes according to plan). Since neither of them is being heralded in by the owner as the 5th starter, I think both have a chance of being viewed as positive contributors. IWUNDU is decent insurance for DFS and also fits into the small defensive role gap that lives between DFS and Richardson. Johnson, I think, will be a backup to DFS/Kleber at the 4, and might even see some time at the 5 in extreme small situations. I think he’s likely the to get lots of chances to find his footing early in the season while KP and Powell’s situations have Carlisle scrambling a bit.
It will be interesting to see whether GREEN and TERRY are given the same kind of opportunity as the two players mentioned in the paragraph above, especially since this is a condensed season with no summer league. Essentially, every incoming rookie has put themselves through summer league, but I doubt many of them were able to accomplish what they would’ve accomplished with the help of people employed by their new teams. Long term, I see Green as a guy who guards the same people Richardson guards, but who plays more like DFS on offense. Terry might be more playable early, since his elite skill (shooting) is more likely to transfer to this level right away. I can’t wait to see what the Mavs’ approach is with these two guys. I think it’s really good that they are not written into the playoff rotation in pen, but I’m hoping we’ll get to see them a little, just to satisfy my own selfish entertainment needs.
WCS should probably be a bit higher, but I’m not sure where, really. I think he is the most logical solution to replace some of what Powell provides, if/when the team decides Powell can no longer provide it. But, I don’t think we’ll see a scenario where he replaces Powell at the same level of minutes Powell has played in the past. He might start some games at center early, or he might play a fairly prominent bench role early. From there, it’s all up to him, really. Whether you are a fan of his or a hater of his, I anticipate that you will be upset with how he is used. I don’t think either camp will be happy, tbh. My best guess is that he’ll get Boban minutes, only on different nights.
Speaking of BOBAN, I think he will be used exactly the same way he was last year. When Carlisle feels the situation plays to his strengths, I think he will be leaned on quite a bit. But, since most situations don’t, I anticipate another long season of “why doesn’t Carlisle play that guy so we can win?”
I am so, so excited that the Mavs drafted TYLER BEY, but I don’t anticipate him getting much of a chance to break through this season. Maybe some minutes early on, but probably a lot of shots of him wearing street clothes behind the bench when everyone is healthy. Whether you view him as a 4, as I do, or you’re hoping he’s a 3, it’s clear either outcome will take a WHILE. Marion wasn’t a true SF until well into his 30’s for example. Still, this shouldn’t discourage anyone, because this is the exact type of investment into youth that many of us feel the Mavericks have overlooked too often in the past. He might play the least out of everyone on this list, but in some ways he is in the top five or six in terms of excitement generated, at least for me.
That’s all I got. Flame away!
Geez, I have to stop trying to voice dictate these things… So many typos.