Trade & Free Agency 2026/2027

[ACMFFL]

As for comparisons of players, we will likely need to agree to disagree. Each player has his strength and weaknesses and there are only so few players that are very similar. Only a few are put in a right role on a good team. The season you mentioned for PJ I think is his only season in a winning situation.
PJ is a good overall player. Decent shooter, above average defender. Rui on the other hand is an absolutely elite shooter (he shot 60 % from three in playoffs after over 40 % in the regular season) and an ok defender. Collins is a better scorer but worse defender. Aldama had very similar stats to PJ and is a rare breed of a 4/5 hybrid that can shoot. Watson had arguably better season than prime PJ and is only 23. Of course there is a risk of a small sample. Denver didn't get a rotational player, Cleveland only sent Strus to Clippers because they needed to get under the first apron. Dort went for 3 SRPs - I see this as similar value as 1 SRP and FRP swap.

Hachi and Aldama have never proven as impactful as PJ in the playoffs; that is certainly no minor detail. Statistically speaking, Hachi has consistently been a net negative in the postseason. Collins does have 1 solid playoff run under his belt, but that was five years ago; since then, he has struggled to make a positive impact, even during the regular season, let alone in the post-season.

If an unproven RFA is worth an unprotected first-round pick and a commitment of 12% of the salary cap over the next four seasons—all based on a sample size of just 15 high-level regular-season games played without Jokic—then I think it's even more realistic to expect that, at some point in the season, teams (especially the most desperate ones) would value PJ’s playoff experience, provided he gets off to a strong start.

Cleveland had to give up Strus and unprotected 1st to acquire Watson, it's inconsequential if Denver didn't get him. That's the price Cavs had to pay to get him, 

OKC absolutely needed to trade him, whereas the Mavs aren't in a position of such urgency that it would weaken their negotiating leverage. Furthermore, as I’ve already mentioned, the second-round pick is the price the Lakers have to pay to free up a roster spot; I doubt the Mavs would see any value in Hiero, and they certainly wouldn't see any in Hardy; that leaves only a pick swap six years down the line.
I think those three second-round picks alone hold significantly more value than the aforementioned swap.