MAVS NEWS:

[Smitty]

@NevaMiss24
Cooper Flagg’s Year 2 PREDICTION:

27.5 PPG
6.4 RPG
4.2 APG
1.8 SPG
1.7 BPG

51% FG
33% 3PT
83% FT


This was in my X feed this morning and I thought it'd be a decent topic to discuss. Here's AI because I wanted an unbiased starting point:

Cooper Flagg won the NBA Rookie of the Year award by posting historic first-year numbers, averaging 21.0 points, 6.7 rebounds, and 4.5 assists per game for the Dallas Mavericks. 
Three NBA players who achieved similar or comparable all-around rookie statistics include:

LeBron James: During his 2003-04 rookie campaign with the Cleveland Cavaliers, he posted comparable stat-line averages of 20.9 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 5.9 assists per game.

Luka Dončić: As a rookie with the Mavericks in 2018-19, he put up similar perimeter and playmaking numbers, averaging 21.2 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 6.0 assists per game.

Tyreke Evans: In his 2009-10 debut season, he averaged a near-identical all-around scorecard of 20.1 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 5.8 assists per game.


So, then I looked into year two for each of those players...

LeBron James: 27.2 points, 7.4 rebounds, and 7.2 assists. 3PT percentage increased from 29.0% to 35.1%.
Luka Doncic:  28.8 points, 9.4 rebounds, and 8.8 assists. 3PT percentage decreased from 32.7% to 31.6%.
Tyreke Evans:  17.8 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 5.6 assists. 3PT percentage increased from 25.5% to 29.1%.

Another note just because... USG%:

Rookie Year:
Flagg - 26.9%
LeBron - 28.2%
Luka - 30.5%
Evans - 26.2%

Year 2:
Flagg - ???
LeBron - 29.7%
Luka - 36.8%
Evans - 25.3%


Another note... Giannis, who Flagg has been compared to some.. It wasn't until his 4th season, at age 22, that he had similar usage as the guys above. In 2016-2017 he had a USG% of 28.3% (Identical to LeBron's rookie year). Averaging 22.9 points, 8.8 rebounds, and 5.4 assists. While still being a terrible 3PT shooter (27.2%). The following year he jumped to 31.2% USG%. Averaging 26.9 points, 10.0 rebounds, and 4.8 assists. 3PT percentage increased to 30.7%.


Ton of numbers... My takeaway is that Coop is probably closer to LeBron and year 4-5 Giannis, than he is Luka, simply because I don't see Flagg ever being that ball dominant. To use the best-case comparison... Lebron (who played 42.4 mpg Year 2, which is +2.9 mpg jump):

+6.3 ppg
+1.9 rbs
+1.3 ast
+1.5% USG%
+6.1% 3PT%


Flagg's Year 2 numbers ??:
27.3 points, 8.6 rebounds, and 5.8 assists per game. 35.6% 3PT.




It's the dead zone of the offseason so these are the type of posts you get.