2026 NBA draft thread

[F Gump]

I am not making the case that terrible draftsmanship is going to haunt the Mavs again. I just mentioned it because a lot of people are all in on the top 4 + top 5 guards consensus. It seems like some posters would consider it a failure if the Mavs don't leave the draft with one of the guards. If they don't end up with one of the consensus guys. 
Case I was trying to make is that the decision makers shouldn't and most likely won't care all that much about the consensus. Hard to imagine that the Mavs have all five guards in the same tier. Possible that they are completly out on one of them (Flemings rumor). Possible that they are much higher on some of the guys in the 10-20 range.

That's why I won't lose my mind if the Mavs trade down or pick someone else at #9.

Makes sense.

I am of the belief that Tier 2 is the 5 guards, and that in essence we've just been sifting through and debating and weighing and re-weighing the merits of those 5 that are in that tier. I also think the bigger players that are sometimes mocked in the 7-9 area are mocksters getting cute or looking for a needs-based angle, rather than taking a player in Tier 2. Some team may decide they badly need someone bigger, but I don't think they would be picking based on BPA if they did so.

Obviously my Tiers may be wrong. But in an analysis of the guru and scout info we're getting, I am solidly convinced that Tier 2 is really composed of the 5 guards -- which should make our pick fairly easy and obvious, however the draft unfolds.

I think the trade down takes you to Tier 3 - I see no way to get a Tier 2 player after a trade down - and I think that turns the Mavs initial pick into someone appreciably worse. So I would not want that to happen. If I had pick 5 or 6, I would trade down to 9 because I think the players are incredibly close. But not if they go from 9 to 12 or 14 or the like. 

The talk that the Mavs are looking for a trade? Hope and trust that has to do with pick 30. Trade ideas that want the Mavs to trade pick 9 for a player? Yuck no. I think they can probably get a much more valuable player, plus one who is cheaper and younger, at pick 9.