Yesterday, 09:32 AM
(Yesterday, 07:16 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: It feels like we are cycling through these guys. Flemings was "it" early in the season. Then it was Acuff and Wagler and Brown fell because of the back issues. Then Burries was the riser. Now, back to Brown. I suspect we will revisit Flemings pretty soon (unless we move up Sunday).
Truth is, there are 9 of these guys and if we end up at 8 or 9 we will get one of the worst of the bunch...or the perceived worst of the bunch. So, to sume extent it almost doesn't matter who we (on the board) like or don't like as we are likely not going to get much choice in the matter. I do suspect a healthy Brown moves up and the choice is probably Burries or Flemings if we stay at 8 though I still don't completely get Wagler as high as some mocks have him.
Pick 10 starts to be a problem (Masai mentioned yesterday Toronto fell from 6th to 9th, but when you are 6th, picking 6th is the least likely outcome whereas when you are 8th, drafting 8th is the most likely single outcome). In round numbers, it is about 29% top 4, 33% number 8 and 31% number 9 with only a 6.6% chance of 10 and a 0.4% chance of #11.
I think Wagler is high due to positional size, elite shooting, high BBIQ and the late bloomer factor. He has a high floor and some folks see Haliburton as his ceiling.
I agree there is a drop off after 9, but not sure we will see 5 guards picked in a row (5-9) so one of those guys may be there at 10 anyways.
I'm a little worried that Ujiri may be the guy to break up the guard run. The good news is that the guys most likely to fall to him (Brown, Flemings, Burries) seem like guys he would like.