(05-06-2026, 07:16 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: It feels like we are cycling through these guys. Flemings was "it" early in the season. Then it was Acuff and Wagler and Brown fell because of the back issues. Then Burries was the riser. Now, back to Brown. I suspect we will revisit Flemings pretty soon (unless we move up Sunday).
Truth is, there are 9 of these guys and if we end up at 8 or 9 we will get one of the worst of the bunch...or the perceived worst of the bunch. So, to sume extent it almost doesn't matter who we (on the board) like or don't like as we are likely not going to get much choice in the matter. I do suspect a healthy Brown moves up and the choice is probably Burries or Flemings if we stay at 8 though I still don't completely get Wagler as high as some mocks have him.
Pick 10 starts to be a problem (Masai mentioned yesterday Toronto fell from 6th to 9th, but when you are 6th, picking 6th is the least likely outcome whereas when you are 8th, drafting 8th is the most likely single outcome). In round numbers, it is about 29% top 4, 33% number 8 and 31% number 9 with only a 6.6% chance of 10 and a 0.4% chance of #11.
I think the reality is that all of these guards will be ranked very differently in every draft room across the league. Also, it feels highly unlikely that they'll go 5-10, like they're stacked in most mocks or rankings.
I've often referenced the pick of Gaurds in this draft to being which flavor of ice cream you prefer. All of them have their strengths and weaknesses. The chances that all of them are good to great NBA players is low. The thing that must be avoided at all costs is picking a bust. If we pick a Guard in this draft, there are a few that worry me more than others... I feel more confident today with Masai at the head of the table.