04-12-2026, 07:40 AM
(04-11-2026, 11:20 AM)mvossman Wrote: Are these right? They look different than what is on tankathon.
The top 4 looks right, but the rest looks wrong. The 6th seed has 8.6% chance of getting the 6th pick and 29.8% change of 7th pick. The 7th seed has zero chance to get a 6th pick.
EDIT: Also, if there is a tie the odds only get split for the top 4 picks. A coinflip decides the rest of the odds. (I just found this out).
Apologies. That was a combination of being on my first cup of coffee and asking ChatGPT to create the graph for me. I agree that the top four do appear to be correct.
Tankathon assumes a coin flip winner when it posts odds for the picks after the top four. But, Chat doesn’t do it that way. In the tie column, it averaged the odds since the coin flip hasn’t occured yet. I have no idea what it was trying to do in the columns where there isn’t a tie since it averaged those also (some of the time). Tankathon has two versions of its Pick Odds page (one showing ties and one showing the base odds). Even Tankathon has different odds for the various picks 6-10 between the two graphs…but, as you say, they aren’t averaged in the tie graph.
The point of trying to put that all in one place was to make this point. Where we finish compared to Memphis has an impact on the Top 4 results, but whatever happens is going to happen there no matter the odds (as we saw with a 1.8% chance last year). The chances of any one pick in the Top four from ending 6th, tied or 7th aren’t the end of the world.
Where the real difference appears to be (and what I wanted to show in a side by side comparison) is what happens in the 6-10 range. Depending on the coin flip result, being 6th vs 7th has a fairly large impact. Obviously, 6th is off the table if you are 7th and the odds go way up of moving down to 8th if you start out 7th. I think we’ll be happy with any of the top four, but who is available at 8th vs 7th might end up being a big deal.