04-04-2026, 07:13 PM
(04-04-2026, 03:40 PM)mvossman Wrote: I think its hard to predict this kind of thing without knowing what happens in the lottery. That pick could have a huge impact on the roster. If they get top 4, there is a good chance they end up with a forward/big, bringing them back to similar roster imbalances they started the season with. In that scenario they would really need to move one of PJ/Naji and probably look to pick up one of the 6th man options with the MLE.
Regardless, I hope there is more movement than you are suggesting. This roster needs a lot of changes and it would be really frustrating to watch this organization squander the flexibility they traded away AD for. If nothing else, I would much rather take a shot with the MLE than spend some of that space on a 35 year old Middleton.
1 I agree with the idea that you have to know the outcome of the lottery (and PERHAPS the draft itself) in order to assess the direction for the rest of the summer choices.
2 But we already know that they badly need a top G added to this roster. Period. One way or another. And they have a lot of playable bodies at F.
3 Unfortunately the odds that the best player available will be a G is only about 72%*, not 100%, and there's about a 28% chance that when it's their turn to pick, the clearly best player available will be a F, and this roster needs top talent to play alongside CF for years, more than anything, so they would have to take the F.
[*28% = over 37% to get a top 4 pick, and about 75% that a F is the obvious choice when they make that top 4 pick]
4 So to piggyback on your thoughts, there is a very real chance (28%) they will enter the roster-building season after the draft even more overloaded at F and in significant need for help at G. So they would need to chase the right solution either by free agency or by trade. This is where the Expert GM earns his pay, by navigating the most advantageous path to get that much-needed G on this roster for the right price in assets and in salary.
In free agency, the only potential solutions I can see would be Dosunmu (SG) who will be UFA,, or Gillespie (RFA). But each is a starter, and the only way they get away would be if their team didn't want to pay what it takes to keep them. In a hard cap world, that's possible, but those are ones I would target and see what's doable.
5 The Mavs are almost certainly NOT going to be in a cap crunch this summer. They will start at about 45M under the cap, with only 2 roster slots open (assuming Nemby is kept via the Team Option, and they keep the 2 1st rounders on the roster). So if they spend the full MLE (about 15M) they are still very flexible for whatever else they do.
6 What to do with Middleton and/or Bagley and/or Cisse and/or BWill and so on? Not that important imo, because they are all most likely 3rd stringers, except that I'm not tying up much money in a 3rd stringer.
7 Middleton? I'm not sure he's worth keeping at all, but he's hard to read. His best Mav games by far have been against tank teams, games that the Mavs would have been better to lose, but his heroics turned a L into a win. Especially MEM. So who is he, and what would he look like on a team playing to win big? It's hard to know. I see him as a 3rd stringer on THIS roster because of the Mavs' glut at F, however, and I don't allocate much money for that 3rd string tier of player. Good question for the Expert GM to decipher. In any event, the very upper end of what I would do would be a 1 + 1 (TO) with a salary below 10M and a specification he can be traded without permission, where he's potentially a "you don't play all the time, but stay ready" player and as much of an expiring trade chip (if he plays well) and team mentor.
8 I don't want to waste roster spots on Martin and Johnson, who both have contracts. It's wasted money, but it's less about the salary itself and more about having useless talent clogging the roster. Is it possible there's a team with cap issues that will welcome a lopsided-salary trade and be willing to move a higher-salaried but much higher talented G to get some relief, like the Mavs did with AD, with those players part of the outgoing? That's for the Expert GM to unravel -- but that's the sort of thing you hire him to accomplish.
9 IDLE KYRIE-RELATED THOUGHT FOR DISCUSSION 1. In light of the failed season this year vs lofty expectations, is there any chance KD might be available? He's brought a ton of drama to the Rox' scene. But he's still very good.
10 IDLE KYRIE-RELATED THOUGHT FOR DISCUSSION 2. If he was gettable either via MLE or via a SNT at a reasonable price in talent, should the Mavs chase Lebron? He's not as good as he once was, and he is cringe-worthy way too often, but he's still a very good talent.