03-23-2026, 01:25 PM
(03-23-2026, 01:20 PM)mvossman Wrote: Mavs most likely spot to pick (roughly 50%) is 7 or 8. Most likely the draft will go something like:
Dybansta
Boozer
Peterson
Wilson
Acuff
Flemings
That means Mavs will be picking from a group including some of Wagler, Brown, Burries, Philon
The next most likely spot is top 4 (roughly mid 30s percent). Most folks on the board (and most folks in NBA circles) feel that you should target top talent over things like fit. That means Mavs would likely grab one of those first 4 guys in the list.
Anything else will be an outlier. If Mavs managed to finish 6th worst (I have no illusions they can make 5th) then they have a 9 percent change of getting 6th pick (at 7 they have zero chance) and if they finish 7th they have a 14% chance of finishing worse than 8th.
It's really starting to sink in how much of a missed opportunity ending in the 6th-7th spot might end up being.
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