2026 NBA draft thread

[DallasMaverick]

"Regression to the mean" applies when the result is highly dependent on chance. I don't think roster-building and cap management are luck-based disciplines. 

Ainge? His reputation was almost entirely built on the trades of a singular summer, at a time he was not revered - in fact, iirc he was on the hot seat, and then pulled off 2 great one-sided trades about the same time that won a title. But other than that, was he a great GM, or merely a GM living off of a great reputation? That was his ONLY title, and there was only one other trip to the Finals (2 years later). 

Presti, please.

…and then there was Monty Williams, who could do no wrong. Got himself a crazy good $$$ contract.

And then he wasn’t…

The issue is assigning all the credit or all the blame to a single individual. If you’d like to assign all the credit for OKC’s success to Presti, well, be my guest.

My view is that success or failure is due to the confluence of a myriad of factors that are often really hard to identify. And often, it’s a pure crapshoot to guess who will perform at a high level and who will be just mediocre, or a bust. Every NBA GM has hits and misses.

Because the sample size is relatively small, a significant hit or miss can completely skew a GM’s track record and reputation. What would Presti’s reputation be if he hadn’t made the Paul George trade? Or if Shai had turned out to be merely average?