03-17-2026, 09:30 AM
(03-17-2026, 08:55 AM)Smitty Wrote: So, we know there will be plenty of losses, the question is how many more can each team win.... Pels and Griz have only 3 opponents below .500 the rest of the way. Their common opponent, UTAH, might be the best tanker of them all. I think the Mavs can only win 1 more game to stay in the T6 tankathon spot and go on to a coin flip. Any more than that and they're most likely to finish with the 8th best odds, which has a 34.5% chance to stay there. A 32.1% chance to drop to 9. And a 26.3% chance to jump into the top 4. With just a small chance, 6.7%, to drop two spots and pick at 10.
The remaining 13/15 games for these 3 will be measured in Wins, not losses. I think the Mavs can get one more W and still maximize their chances.
Worst case, they still get a Top-10 pick and have some assets to try and wheel and deal some...
Its amazing how big of a difference 6th vs 8th is. In the past I had focused on the importance of an extra 10% chance to get a top 4 pick, but after looking at the players I think there is a big separation between those two spots. 6th spot has a good chance of getting one of Flemings/Acuff and the 8th spot has next to no chance.