The Mavericks, Pelicans, and Grizzlies are all tied in the win column with 23... Which is what matters in the race to the bottom. The Mavs and Pels have 13 games remaining. The Griz have 15. Attached are the remaining schedules for each, and the opponents below .500.
Mavericks: Opponents under .500: GSW, POR, MIL, CHI
Pelicans: Opponents under .500: POR, SAC, UTAH
Screenshot 2026-03-17 081605.png (Size: 47.2 KB / Downloads: 90)
Grizzlies: Opponents under .500: CHI, MIL, UTAH
So, we know there will be plenty of losses, the question is how many more can each team win.... Pels and Griz have only 3 opponents below .500 the rest of the way. Their common opponent, UTAH, might be the best tanker of them all. I think the Mavs can only win 1 more game to stay in the T6 tankathon spot and go on to a coin flip. Any more than that and they're most likely to finish with the 8th best odds, which has a 34.5% chance to stay there. A 32.1% chance to drop to 9. And a 26.3% chance to jump into the top 4. With just a small chance, 6.7%, to drop two spots and pick at 10.
The remaining 13/15 games for these 3 will be measured in Wins, not losses. I think the Mavs can get one more W and still maximize their chances.
Worst case, they still get a Top-10 pick and have some assets to try and wheel and deal some...
Mavericks: Opponents under .500: GSW, POR, MIL, CHI
Pelicans: Opponents under .500: POR, SAC, UTAH
Screenshot 2026-03-17 081605.png (Size: 47.2 KB / Downloads: 90)
Grizzlies: Opponents under .500: CHI, MIL, UTAH
So, we know there will be plenty of losses, the question is how many more can each team win.... Pels and Griz have only 3 opponents below .500 the rest of the way. Their common opponent, UTAH, might be the best tanker of them all. I think the Mavs can only win 1 more game to stay in the T6 tankathon spot and go on to a coin flip. Any more than that and they're most likely to finish with the 8th best odds, which has a 34.5% chance to stay there. A 32.1% chance to drop to 9. And a 26.3% chance to jump into the top 4. With just a small chance, 6.7%, to drop two spots and pick at 10.
The remaining 13/15 games for these 3 will be measured in Wins, not losses. I think the Mavs can get one more W and still maximize their chances.
Worst case, they still get a Top-10 pick and have some assets to try and wheel and deal some...