(03-05-2026, 04:28 PM)Scott41theMavs Wrote: As for the Pacers,... If they catch the Kings, those odds actually increase by a tenth of a percent. Didn't realize it was statistically better to finish 2nd than 1st.
It's not. The Pacers' odds of being drawn for somewhere in pick 1-4 (which allows them to keep their pick) will be EXACTLY the same if they are seeded 1, 2, or 3. It's about a 52% chance to keep it, in any of those slots. Their odds lessen for each rung lower than that and would be lower than 50-50 (about 48% in slot 4, and nearing 40% in slots 5-6, and lower yet the further you go down the list.)