2026 NBA draft thread

[Winter]

The thing I'm not sure we acknowledge enough as we look back at drafts is how the circumstances of how and where these guys start their careers changes their trajectories. 

Take Marvin Bagley, just as an example: I have no idea whether or not he would've been a great player worthy of being taken in the top 5 had he been drafted by GS or SA, but I AM sure that getting drafted by SAC makes the worst possible version of someone's early career far more likely to play out. My point is that not every bust was destined to bust, just like not every hit was destined to hit. How these guys fit with their teams and the plan to use them...how well they gel with their teammates, their developmental coaches, their trainers, even the front office "helper" types...how well they adjust to life in a new city, their first time being away from family in some cases, doing adult things for the first time (with a ton of money)...these factors are just as important as any predictive extrapolation of what they show on the court in college, and imo are much more difficult to get right. 

That's why it's all such a crapshoot, imo. To a certain extent, the better organizations are just organized in a way more conducive to giving these guys a chance to succeed, and they kind of make their GM's seem "smarter." Then again, the GM's probably deserve a ton of credit for their imprint on their organizations - the good and the bad. 

Don't get me wrong - Haliburton survived being drafted by SAC, so he probably would've been great anywhere. There are some who are destined for greatness and others who are destined for failure in a predetermined, unavoidable way, probably. But, think about all the stories of Nash taking Dirk under his wing and that nice lady from the front office teaching him how to deposit his paychecks, how to pay his utility bills, etc, all while he was just wanting to give up and go home. If Dirk had been drafted by Utah, would it have worked? I think there's a lot to this line of thinking, personally.

Just to add to that, consider that you're a PG in the top of the draft (Flemings, Brown, and Acuff).

What does Dallas offer a PG? Jason Kidd is the head coach, Kyrie Irving will be your sidekick and mentor, and Cooper Flagg will be you're running mate. That sounds pretty appealing. Furthermore, there's no frontline starter PG that will make you wait your turn on this team. 

Some of it is history - No one wants to go to Washington or Sacramento it seems - and some of it is coaching I think. But you're right, where you end up is a crapshoot for better or worse.