TRADE: Tyus Jones to DAL | Branham to CHA

[Mavs2021]

I think the consensus about this draft is you have an obvious top-3 and arguably a pretty clear top-4 or 5 and then things really level off. It's an eye of the beholder draft beyond 5. Lottery odds really level off as well. The difference between having the 6th worst record and the 9th is only 4.5%.

 What?

The 6th odds are 37.2% to land a top 4 pick, 96.1% to be top 8.
The 9th odds are 20.5% to land a top 4 pick, 0% to be 6th, 7th or 8th.

If they not stressed or aware of the difference between the 6th odds and 9th odds, they are morons. That range is actually by far the most important range. 

You lose 0% from 1 to 3.
You lose 4% from 1 to 4.
You lose 10% from 1 to 5.
You lose 16.7% from 6 to 9.

That´s why most teams aim for bottom four/five and once they are comfy down there like the Pacers or Wizards, they don´t mind a win as long as the cushion to the Jazz remains solid.

We are in a very crucial battle with Memphis and Milwaukee to secure the 7th odds. Furthermore the Grizzlies are excellent drafters, so if you pick right behind them, odds are they just took a very good player off the board.  Furthermore the higher up you are the better your odds to take advantage of your draft position. Let´s say everybody is right and this is indeed a 5-6 player no brainer draft. That means #6 and #7 will field the most calls, when another team feels very strongly about a player and wants to secure him.