5 hours ago
(7 hours ago)RasheedsBigWhiteSpot Wrote: If you don't like the poll, okay, make your own. Again, the reality of how this season could play out is essentially, like, "Sex With a Supermodel vs. Sex With a Wolverine" (landing a top 3 pick versus playing OKC). And, sure, that'd make for a real interesting poll (no kink shame). Right now the Mavs are sitting on a 20% chance of getting a top 4 pick. And I'd argue that they have a 15% of making the playoffs and not playing OKC in the first round. Thus, considering the improved play (this was posted before the 4th quarter vs Lakers) of late, a poll was born.
Yes, of course I want a wingman for Cooper (come on down, Darryn), but I don't necessarily see it as a slam dunk that they're getting one. I think it’s funny how the Mavs went 40 years of lotteries and never moved up, let alone drafted well in it. But, hey, 1.8% odds can cause an entire fanbase to forget, amirite?
I mean nobody has suggested its a slam dunk. But odds do matter. A 20% shot at top 4 pick is crazy valuable.
Part of the reason its so important to get as good a pick as they can for this draft is because they have no clear path to a lottery pick for the foreseeable future. They don't control their next 4 picks and they are all likely to be late round. Then Flagg will be in his prime which means very unlikely their own picks get near the lottery for years. They don't have any assets that I am confident are worth a lottery pick. This is it. This is by far their best chance to get that wingman. If they don't get him this draft, they will have to either get really lucky in a future draft (Brunson) or get really lucky on a desperate trade for a depressed asset (Kyrie). Either option could take many years to hit (Brunson took 4 years to get to wingman status). Hitting on this draft could very well be the difference in being a contender in 3 years vs never getting there before Flagg leaves.