Trade & FA 2025-26: Free Agency Starts 5pm CST/6pm EST

[Smitty]

As for a potential TDL deal still being possible, I think you’re probably correct that it’s not completely off the table. There’s a world where Davis elects to put off surgery, making his timeline for recovery around 6 weeks. The TDL is Feb 5th. The Hawks return from the ASB Feb 19th. Well, the 19th is exactly 6 weeks for AD’s recovery. So, if ATL makes a trade for Davis at the deadline, he will have only missed 3 games that he would have otherwise played in. Similar to when the Mavs traded for him initially. Far from a deal breaker, like you said.

Factually, it's nowhere near the "long window" of missed games (for a team that trades for him) that it looks like at first glance, if the trade was navigated wisely. The 6 week window for a return from injury would have AD back shortly after the ASB. 

Let's plug in some actual dates:
1 Date of injury - Thurs Jan 8
2 End of 6 weeks healing time - Thurs Feb 19
3 Trade deadline (last possible trade date) - Thurs Feb 5
4 All-star break with no games played - Fri Feb 13-Thurs Feb 19

So if AD is truly on a 6 week layoff, and was traded at the deadline (Thurs Feb 5), the new team would be losing his services for only 1 week of games (Fri Feb 6-Thurs Feb 12). ATL for example has only 3 games in that window (CHAR, MINN, CHAR) and that's probably true of almost every team. Then when everyone comes back from AS break, that's the end of 6 weeks and AD should be healthy again. In addition, because it's a hand injury (rather than leg or foot), he can stay in condition and be ready to go when the return from AS break happens.

AD also has major incentive to be back, and be fully in shape, the very first day, because he will be looking to motivate that extension from the new team. You might very well see the same sort of "AD" that you saw the 1st game with DAL, where he wanted to make a huge impression, and was a one-man dominant force on both ends, until pulling up lame.

In general, I am not in a hurry to trade AD, but the prospects of a healthy roster showing their stuff in March and April would definitely hamper the ability to obtain a high pick. But great play alongside a healthy Kyrie making a HUGE difference in winning games might also make AD even more desirable in the summer, or lay the groundwork for an even better team next season after adding back Lively AND a good (but not great) pick. IMO it was easier when AD was going to be out for the season and Kyrie was going to sit also. Where's that expert GM when you need him?

Yes, you've got your timeline correct. It's exactly what Rich Paul is telling other GM's as we speak. I think you missed Dan's point in this reply though. I think Dan was talking about the timing of the trade being executed, noting that a team would not make that trade today for instance, but instead wait all the way until the deadline, because said team will need the potential players in a Davis deal, to continue being competitive the next 3 weeks.

To Dan's point, I did find it comical all the talk about the Hawks injury report last night. Like Dan, I think there's no way a team makes a trade RIGHT NOW, this week, or next week. It will most likely be the day of Thursday, February 5th. Which maximizes the timeline we laid out above.