AROUND the NBA:

[Mavs2021]

If the choice is between Keaton Wagler and Koi Peat, then really??? Are you so good at analysis that you know which will be better? Of course there's a percentage difference, but outside the top 5, I doubt there's a lot certainty. I don't think any team will consider it a fight to see who places 7th and 8th in the draft. This isn't Boozer or Peterson we're talking about. Coaches aren't going to massage their lineups in the regular season to conspicuously lose in a fight for 7 or 8 unless maybe it's the last game of the season. Then Maybe. But you won't be entirely sure how teams will pick above you even then.

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I already explained the huge difference in odds, so I´m not going to do that again.

I´ll address the bold part instead. Say I am that good. I know between Player A, B and C, who the right player is. It does not help me much, if that player is not there anymore, because somebody else already took him five spots before it was my turn.

Say I had the #1 odds in the 2017 draft and my board reads Tatum, Markkanen, Fox, DSJ, Ball, Mitchell, Fultz, Adebayo.

I´m a badass. I identified two elite players. I correctly evaluated that Ball and Fultz were overranked. I have done a pretty good job. Yet I was in the #9 slot and still end up with DSJ, cause I ranked him above Micthell and Adebayo. 

On the other hand, if I had tanked properly, like any reasonable owner not named Mark Cuban, I would have finished with the #1 odds. I would have picked Tatum. And in the worst case, dropping to 5th, I still end up with Markkanen. So yes that´s why every position matters. Cause you are not only playing against your own evaluation (no matter how good), but against that of others.