Trade & FA 2025-26: Free Agency Starts 5pm CST/6pm EST

[mvossman]

In fact, that trade happens over and over - it's just not as well-defined or certain (nor did I say it would be) as you have chosen to describe it. 

*One team wants the finished product, whose ability and production is already known, and there's no waiting for him to be developed. He's already been doing it.
*The other team is willing to roll the dice on a player who might turn out to be as good, or even better, but he certainly is no sure thing and will have to develop further. No idea how long it will take, either. As a future draft pick, you don't even know who that player will be, further clouding what might lay ahead.

Both teams are taking a chance that the road ahead with the guy they are getting will go according to plan. But in theory, it's Today's Star (who you think and hope has plenty of years ahead at a high level, but...) for Tomorrow's (with tomorrow's arrival date probably being 3-5 years down the road ...and maybe more ...or maybe never).

In any event, of course I'm not getting a surefire AD-to-be, but I want a player (or a shot at one) who has some high-level upside if all goes well. 

And if you don't give me a reasonable chance to end up somewhere down the road with a player of AD's caliber (once he's been developed and grows), if all goes well, I am really not interested enough to pull the trigger. Maybe explore what's out there from some other team. Maybe I keep him. That doesn't scare me.

This sentence "who you think and hope has plenty of years ahead at a high level" might be the source of our biggest disagreement.  Big men with chronic injury issues historically don't age well.  And many times the decline is steep.  I think there is a very high probability that he will be a negative asset in the last year of his current contract when he will be turning 35 and making 64 million dollars, and I think any team that extends him will likely regret it.

I also think the concept of talent for talent is too narrow of scope.  It ignores so many other factors.  I think value for value is a better way to look at it.  I believe Risacher plus a mid round pick in the upcoming draft will provide more on court production per dollar than what AD will long term.  Given your dislike of Risacher and your dismissing of non lottery picks, plus your high valuation of AD long term means you don't think that is enough value.  It also explains why you are more willing to hang onto AD.  Because you think you can move him later whereas I think we have a limited window.   It all gets back to different valuations.