MAVS NEWS:

[F Gump]

I think we're talking past each other a little bit.  I'm not denying that Lively has a troublesome history with injuries at all and I'm not suggesting building around him either at this point.

This is what I would frame as admitting what we have.  A 21 year old only in his third pro year who has shown flashes of being a really good piece who is recovering from foot surgery on a pretty shitty team that shouldn't be winning games this season if they're valuing the future and happens to be up for an extension next year.  

So I guess the question is what would you do in that situation?  I actually think that he's playing himself into a what would be considered a much lower annual contract number if he extends this season compared to what everyone thought would be an immediate, no questions asked, max contract watching him as a rookie.  With that in mind, I'm still extending him this offseason because I kind of want to take advantage of that and hope it works out because if that doesn't work out....who cares this team isn't competing for championships for a long time, even if Lively gets healthy.

Is your position that we shouldn't extend him?

Two parts to my answer ...

1  I have not been addressing the financial possibilities at all. None of what I have said has had any real connection to the extension question. But if I go there now: I don't think extending him is going to be a viable option, because I don't think either side will like the other's numbers. Here's how I think it is most likely to play out.
....MAVS - Because of his injury history, DL will have to "prove" to them he can stay healthy before the they make a bigger commitment. But imo it's way too late in the timeline for that, because the window for an extension opens and closes next summer. The BEST he can offer by that point would be that he's been healthy for how long - a half season in a row? - and we can't even assume that much will be true. Mavs offer will come in fairly low, but of course they will want him to extend at that number. 
....DL - He won't want to be locked into a lower number and will ask for a big number. And frankly, is Dallas the team he can trust his medical maintenance and recovery to their staff? So he will decline the extension they offer, play out season 4, and try to prove himself in season 4 after which he will be RFA. It will play out like Josh Green did, and with similar angst in the discussions featuring major alarmism over how the Mavs blew it and now he will cost $200M or so.
....Once he's a RFA in summer 2027, both sides will see how much the rest of the NBA values him, and both sides will figure out how they want to navigate things from there. IMO no way to avoid that, and it brings no guarantees. The Mavs will only have to pay what someone else will offer. Who knows what others will be willing to pay? But all of that makes his long-term future in Dallas a bit uncertain, and based on his inability to stay healthy, rightly so.

2 However --- My "position" has nothing to do with extensions or next contracts (because they aren't at that crossroads yet, and likely won't even be there until the summer of 2027). And there's no good way to talk trade either -- the Mavs don't know his long-term value, other teams don't know it either, and neither do we, so everything with him is in a long-term holding pattern to see what emerges.

What my position is -- ie the point I have been making -- is that, with his injury history being so ongoing, and no end in sight, anyone who is planning on him as a MAVS' BUILDING BLOCK for the future and as a FUTURE STAR CENTER is ignoring all the facts up to this point. So far he is always just another injury waiting to happen. He is also a looming financial nightmare to deal with in 2027 from which we can't be sure he remains a Mav. And his past production has been so limited minutes-wise that we certainly can't say his future presence will give us many years of top-tier center play -- out of the 4000 minutes per year at center, will he even be able to ever play as many as 1500 in a season? If we guesstimate that in future years he will be playing 40-55 games each season (due to injuries and injury "management"), and will average 20-25 mpg, the UPPER extreme of that has the Mavs only getting 1375 minutes from him per season. That's not enough minutes to be a solution at C, or to pay big money for, or to get major impact from.

SUMMARY of my position is this - We can't and shouldn't make plans that say "We have the center position filled with a great center solution for the long term, because we have Lively -- and he's only 21."

Is it possible that it all changes in the future and he's healthy and plays full time? Sure, it's possible. But that's not what we should expect at all, because he has NEVER been able to do that, ever.