08-25-2025, 10:13 PM
(08-25-2025, 08:20 PM)Benskix2 Wrote: I think Kyrie is going to be a worse player next year than he was last year, and the same will be true every year for the rest of his career. Even if he's somehow not worse he's going to miss a big chunk of the year
I think AD is going to have to play a lot of the 4, because we already have two 5's who aren't great candidates to play the 4 and deserve a lot of minutes. So either/both Cooper or PJ are going to have to play a lot of 3 to make this roster work.
There is a very high probability that injuries sort out some of the minutes crunch, but missing players obviously hurt our ceiling.
So in regards to the OP I don't believe this team has a window of contention as currently constructed, and that our best bet is to try and get good around Cooper Flag a couple of years from now, but I don't want to assemble a team whose ceiling is "just good".
I think Kyrie will be back better than most expect, because ACL injuries these days are way more "routine" than they used to be. It's a serious injury, but other than the time missed, it really doesn't have to have any lasting impact on Kyrie's game. That's subject to Kyrie's willingness to work, of course, but I trust that part of the equation won't prove to be an issue.
As far as the numbers crunch at C & F, it's only going to be a minutes crunch if those 5 Mavs players who look like starters (Gaff, Lively, AD, PJW, Flagg) all navigate the year injury free. (In that case, I see Naji as getting left out.) But I don't think "injury free" will happen, in which case the depth will be valuable rather than any sort of issue. If there are 2 injuries at the same time, you already start to get a bit thin, and if they have 3 at once they will actually be a bit short-handed and either using 3rd-stringers or guards or 2-ways or all of the above to play C & F. (When you realize that's all it takes, the extra depth is no longer a concern.) I think the depth of QUALITY players at C-F will actually help, not hurt.
The question marks about running the offense will probably get worked out via developing the mix they have to start the season, but I think the Mavs early (and 1st half) schedule will factor into that a lot. Over the first month, they play 14 games at home and only 4 on the road, which is massively lopsided, and not only should help the record (and perhaps give them some confidence to build on), but more importantly will give them a big edge in having the opportunity for practices. You rarely can do those on the road. Extra practice sessions can help them in the development and oncourt chemistry areas, and that added foundational time to supplement camp should have an effect to carry over for the rest of the year.
The typical ACL return time these days is said to be 8-12 months, and the 1st half of the season ends right at the 10-month mark for Kyrie. If they can lay an early foundation that carries them for the first half, developing the guard rotation (Russell, Exum, Williams, Nembhard) with extra available minutes, then add Kyrie into the mix for the back half run (which will certainly be a major boost when it happens), the result could be good. Should be interesting.