Trade & FA 2025-26: Free Agency Starts 5pm CST/6pm EST

[F Gump]

Kinda the same as MIL.

Significant dead money on their books for a long period of time.  Trying to roster-build with one financial hand tied behind their backs.

Bad contracts really, really hurt.  Even semi-well-performing contracts that are really big can hurt.  Right, Lakers?

I'm just wondering if the future of the NBA is one $50m guy, and a bunch of $10-20m guys.

IMO more room than that, but yes money runs out fast.

I will offer my payroll model again for A2, 2025-26 cap level.... Most teams want to be way lower payroll than A2 (and NONE want to be over A2).

2 max players (your main guys who carry you) ... 100M
...you need 2 max-value guys to win big, however if you get lucky you may be able to only pay max to 1, and have another playing that well for less money
5 solid or better players at MLEish ... 75M
2 good contributors (like Naji, DJJ, Max, ideally CM) below MLE ...20M
6 vet minimum, kids, developing, 3rd string ... 12.5M

Mavs version 2025-26
2 max players ... (2) AD, Kyrie ...91M
5 solid or better players at MLEish ... (5) Klay, Gaff, PJW, Flagg, Lively [bargain!] ...65M
2 good contributors below MLE ... (4) CM [overpaid?], Naji, Max, Russell [bargain?] ... 32M
6 vet minimum, kids, developing... (4) Hardy [overpaid!], DP [overpaid!], Exum/Omax, Williams ...15M

Once you look at how quickly the money runs out, its hard to see room for a 3rd max, and the 2nd tier player who will be getting money in the mid 20s or 30s needs to be a really super special one or else it  kills your payroll. Max salary for a player who is not carrying your team is a killer. You simply cannot afford a miss on max salary guys. And you can see how valuable the max-value guy is who is getting in the 30s.

I saw many players this summer who should be good values for their tier 3 money (may be tier 2 value).

MAVS ISSUES ON NEW DEALS. Gaff at MLE-ish money (MLE + 10%) in general is perhaps his value, but if you ever want to move him, the "+10%" likely makes it extra hard. Kyrie for 35M will imo prove very valuable. DAR should be very good value. Flagg is very likely to offer HUGE surplus value for about 8 years.

LOOKING AHEAD. 
1 How much will PJW take? He needs to fit in tier 2. Way bigger will not work - look at the math. 
2 Lively has a prove-it year ahead w health and productivity if he is to be paid beyond tier 2 in summer of 2026 (can sign rookie extension deal in summer 2026). So far, he teases more but has done nowhere close to bigger than t 2.