06-25-2025, 12:27 PM
Hollinger's write up of some of the available point guards. Disregard the # he has for these guys. It is typically off. It is just his formula
4. D’Angelo Russell, Nets, $23,898,145
Russell’s brand has taken a beating since he didn’t fit in L.A. and has been exposed defensively in the postseason. But he’s a good scorer and shooter whose shortcomings might be perceived differently if he were cast as a high-usage sixth man rather than a starting point guard. Russell was also outlier bad from 3 last year (a career low 31.4 percent), but that isn’t the way to bet going forward.
The Nets will have full Bird rights on him in addition to their jillions in cap space. While he doesn’t exactly fit Brooklyn’s timeline, re-signing him to use as a trade piece either in-season or next summer makes sense from a cap perspective and adds some floor for Brooklyn’s offense as the Nets rebuild.
Notably, if Brooklyn struggles to find other uses for its cap space, it could sign Russell to a bloated one-year deal with a non-guaranteed second year, one that would effectively operate as a trade exception to use in-season or even next summer.
Russell’s cap hold is $28 million, but the Nets could pay him the max if they wanted; as long as they set aside $28 million of their cap space for his hold, they can finish their other business and then go as high as they want on Russell. Note that keeping Russell and Cam Thomas (below) on their books would take the Nets down to $40 million in room — still likely plenty for what they have planned this offseason.
5. Tre Jones, Bulls, $21,486,798
Does my computer secretly think the Bulls were awesome? Is this some kind of AI hallucination? Between this and Josh Giddey’s valuation, I have questions.
Here’s the thing: Jones was really good last season when he got the chance to play, especially after the trade to Chicago. He averaged double-figures as a Bull, with 58-50-88 shooting splits. He had nearly six assists for every turnover! He made an amazing 55.8 percent of his shots from floater range! He’s only 25! Is he actually good?
One reason to go through exercises like BORD$ is to flag value situations you might have otherwise missed. Jones might not be a $21 million player, but there’s also a decent chance he’s seriously undervalued in the marketplace. Nobody thinks of him as a starter, and his reluctance to shoot from outside is a clear limitation. However, his defense, ball security and floater game low-key add quite a bit of value to offset his lack of dynamic shot creation. At the very least, he’d be a top-notch backup who would fit in several places.
. Chris Paul, Spurs, $17,373,671
I’m a bit surprised Paul’s free agency hasn’t generated more discussion. The Point God doesn’t really fit in San Antonio anymore after the Spurs traded for De’Aaron Fox last year and presumably will draft Dylan Harper soon.
Paul is 40, but he can still help a lot of teams, as he showed with his steady handling of the Spurs in the first half of the season. Because of this, he seems like a prime candidate to chase a ring as either a fifth starter or key backup, especially since his game still fits in a lot of places.
Putting a dollar value on this is the conundrum, since he’s mostly looking at teams that couldn’t afford him at this BORD$ number. How much of a discount would he take to, say, team up with the Wolves or Nuggets or reunite with the Warriors? Those destinations might not offer much more than the minimum. However, if Paul values dollars over jewelry, other landing spots come into view for the midlevel exception.
San Antonio has no Bird rights on Paul. As a non-Bird free agent, he can be offered a maximum of $13,179,600, of which $627,600 would be likely incentives, plus another $1,255,198 in unlikely incentives, for a total of $14,434,798. Note that this total is very slightly more than the $14.1 million nontaxpayer MLE.
yus Jones, Suns, $12,915,369
My numbers believe in Jones, even if much of the rest of the NBA doesn’t seem to. He had to settle for a minimum deal with the Suns after he received a cold shoulder in 2024 free agency, and although Jones had a decent statistical season, he lost his starting job by the end of the season. He’s probably looking at returning to a situation like the one he had in Memphis, where he was a high-level backup capable of starting for stretches but not somebody teams are planning around as the first option at point guard.
Jones is also a small guard in his late 20s and saw his turnover rate creep up last season, and his defense has become iffier in recent seasons. On the other hand, he’s never been regarded as a true 3-point threat, but in the last two seasons, he has hit 41.4 percent from 3 while bombing away at a career-high rate last season.
Jones is too good to work for the minimum again, but he’s probably looking at getting a chunk of the nontaxpayer MLE on a short deal to round out a contender’s backcourt rotation.
Spencer Dinwiddie, Mavericks, $9,087,787
Dinwiddie is suddenly important again in Dallas because of the knee injury to Irving, necessitating the Mavs having as many other ballhandlers as possible to offset his absence. Dinwiddie is 32 and has never been a particularly threatening floor spacer, but his shot creation, size and foul drawing have made him a valuable bench player year after year.
The tricky part is that the Mavs had Dinwiddie on a one-year minimum deal last year and have no Bird rights on him, and the Mavs likely will have only their taxpayer midlevel exception to use to sign players. A two-year deal for that $5.7 million taxpayer MLE with a second-year player option is probably the sweet spot. The Mavs’ other business (such as, um, re-signing Irving) has to come first to make sure they’re beneath the second apron
Dennis Schröder, Pistons, $7,839,347
This feels on the low side until you remember that my numbers include Schröder’s disastrous two-month tenure in Golden State, when he and the Warriors’ system went together like bananas and ketchup. Schröder was much better early in the year with Brooklyn and at the end in Detroit, and his fit as a high-minutes backup with the Pistons seems near-perfect.
The Pistons have early Bird rights on Schröder and can go up to $22.8 million on a salary for him in 2025-26, effectively allowing them to price out any rival that tried to offer him the nontaxpayer MLE.
On sheer value, that number above seems wild, but the Pistons are far enough below the tax line that they might want to start him at that number to have enough salary ballast for in-season trades. Consider a deal for that amount with a team option for 2026-27 for the same amount, for instance; it would allow Detroit to take back $30.3 million at any point in the next two years if the right player came along.
Alternatively, the Pistons could skip the shenanigans and sign him to a more conventional deal. Given Schröder’s age (he turns 32 in September), I’ll ballpark his value at two guaranteed years for $10 million a pop on a deal that includes a third-year team option.
Brandon Williams, Mavericks (NG)
Williams has a non-guaranteed deal for $2.3 million after the Mavs promoted him from a two-way late last season, and Dallas may consider keeping him on that deal after he posted 13 double-figure games for the Mavs’ dilapidated late-season roster. Williams is still two-way eligible, however, so another option for Dallas would be to cut him and then, if he isn’t claimed on waivers, bring him back on a two-way. The logic for Dallas to do that is because of its apron situation, which may result in the Mavs keeping only 14 players on the roster through the trade deadline.
The Mavs owe Williams $200,000 if he isn’t waived by July 7, so that’s the likely trigger point for a decision, although the two sides could agree to postpone the date to allow more time to use his contract in a potential trade.
4. D’Angelo Russell, Nets, $23,898,145
Russell’s brand has taken a beating since he didn’t fit in L.A. and has been exposed defensively in the postseason. But he’s a good scorer and shooter whose shortcomings might be perceived differently if he were cast as a high-usage sixth man rather than a starting point guard. Russell was also outlier bad from 3 last year (a career low 31.4 percent), but that isn’t the way to bet going forward.
The Nets will have full Bird rights on him in addition to their jillions in cap space. While he doesn’t exactly fit Brooklyn’s timeline, re-signing him to use as a trade piece either in-season or next summer makes sense from a cap perspective and adds some floor for Brooklyn’s offense as the Nets rebuild.
Notably, if Brooklyn struggles to find other uses for its cap space, it could sign Russell to a bloated one-year deal with a non-guaranteed second year, one that would effectively operate as a trade exception to use in-season or even next summer.
Russell’s cap hold is $28 million, but the Nets could pay him the max if they wanted; as long as they set aside $28 million of their cap space for his hold, they can finish their other business and then go as high as they want on Russell. Note that keeping Russell and Cam Thomas (below) on their books would take the Nets down to $40 million in room — still likely plenty for what they have planned this offseason.
5. Tre Jones, Bulls, $21,486,798
Does my computer secretly think the Bulls were awesome? Is this some kind of AI hallucination? Between this and Josh Giddey’s valuation, I have questions.
Here’s the thing: Jones was really good last season when he got the chance to play, especially after the trade to Chicago. He averaged double-figures as a Bull, with 58-50-88 shooting splits. He had nearly six assists for every turnover! He made an amazing 55.8 percent of his shots from floater range! He’s only 25! Is he actually good?
One reason to go through exercises like BORD$ is to flag value situations you might have otherwise missed. Jones might not be a $21 million player, but there’s also a decent chance he’s seriously undervalued in the marketplace. Nobody thinks of him as a starter, and his reluctance to shoot from outside is a clear limitation. However, his defense, ball security and floater game low-key add quite a bit of value to offset his lack of dynamic shot creation. At the very least, he’d be a top-notch backup who would fit in several places.
. Chris Paul, Spurs, $17,373,671
I’m a bit surprised Paul’s free agency hasn’t generated more discussion. The Point God doesn’t really fit in San Antonio anymore after the Spurs traded for De’Aaron Fox last year and presumably will draft Dylan Harper soon.
Paul is 40, but he can still help a lot of teams, as he showed with his steady handling of the Spurs in the first half of the season. Because of this, he seems like a prime candidate to chase a ring as either a fifth starter or key backup, especially since his game still fits in a lot of places.
Putting a dollar value on this is the conundrum, since he’s mostly looking at teams that couldn’t afford him at this BORD$ number. How much of a discount would he take to, say, team up with the Wolves or Nuggets or reunite with the Warriors? Those destinations might not offer much more than the minimum. However, if Paul values dollars over jewelry, other landing spots come into view for the midlevel exception.
San Antonio has no Bird rights on Paul. As a non-Bird free agent, he can be offered a maximum of $13,179,600, of which $627,600 would be likely incentives, plus another $1,255,198 in unlikely incentives, for a total of $14,434,798. Note that this total is very slightly more than the $14.1 million nontaxpayer MLE.
yus Jones, Suns, $12,915,369
My numbers believe in Jones, even if much of the rest of the NBA doesn’t seem to. He had to settle for a minimum deal with the Suns after he received a cold shoulder in 2024 free agency, and although Jones had a decent statistical season, he lost his starting job by the end of the season. He’s probably looking at returning to a situation like the one he had in Memphis, where he was a high-level backup capable of starting for stretches but not somebody teams are planning around as the first option at point guard.
Jones is also a small guard in his late 20s and saw his turnover rate creep up last season, and his defense has become iffier in recent seasons. On the other hand, he’s never been regarded as a true 3-point threat, but in the last two seasons, he has hit 41.4 percent from 3 while bombing away at a career-high rate last season.
Jones is too good to work for the minimum again, but he’s probably looking at getting a chunk of the nontaxpayer MLE on a short deal to round out a contender’s backcourt rotation.
Spencer Dinwiddie, Mavericks, $9,087,787
Dinwiddie is suddenly important again in Dallas because of the knee injury to Irving, necessitating the Mavs having as many other ballhandlers as possible to offset his absence. Dinwiddie is 32 and has never been a particularly threatening floor spacer, but his shot creation, size and foul drawing have made him a valuable bench player year after year.
The tricky part is that the Mavs had Dinwiddie on a one-year minimum deal last year and have no Bird rights on him, and the Mavs likely will have only their taxpayer midlevel exception to use to sign players. A two-year deal for that $5.7 million taxpayer MLE with a second-year player option is probably the sweet spot. The Mavs’ other business (such as, um, re-signing Irving) has to come first to make sure they’re beneath the second apron
Dennis Schröder, Pistons, $7,839,347
This feels on the low side until you remember that my numbers include Schröder’s disastrous two-month tenure in Golden State, when he and the Warriors’ system went together like bananas and ketchup. Schröder was much better early in the year with Brooklyn and at the end in Detroit, and his fit as a high-minutes backup with the Pistons seems near-perfect.
The Pistons have early Bird rights on Schröder and can go up to $22.8 million on a salary for him in 2025-26, effectively allowing them to price out any rival that tried to offer him the nontaxpayer MLE.
On sheer value, that number above seems wild, but the Pistons are far enough below the tax line that they might want to start him at that number to have enough salary ballast for in-season trades. Consider a deal for that amount with a team option for 2026-27 for the same amount, for instance; it would allow Detroit to take back $30.3 million at any point in the next two years if the right player came along.
Alternatively, the Pistons could skip the shenanigans and sign him to a more conventional deal. Given Schröder’s age (he turns 32 in September), I’ll ballpark his value at two guaranteed years for $10 million a pop on a deal that includes a third-year team option.
Brandon Williams, Mavericks (NG)
Williams has a non-guaranteed deal for $2.3 million after the Mavs promoted him from a two-way late last season, and Dallas may consider keeping him on that deal after he posted 13 double-figure games for the Mavs’ dilapidated late-season roster. Williams is still two-way eligible, however, so another option for Dallas would be to cut him and then, if he isn’t claimed on waivers, bring him back on a two-way. The logic for Dallas to do that is because of its apron situation, which may result in the Mavs keeping only 14 players on the roster through the trade deadline.
The Mavs owe Williams $200,000 if he isn’t waived by July 7, so that’s the likely trigger point for a decision, although the two sides could agree to postpone the date to allow more time to use his contract in a potential trade.
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