05-30-2025, 09:26 AM
(05-30-2025, 08:11 AM)david75090 Wrote: If I'm getting this, what is being talked about is the guaranteed money due the 1st round picks. With the assumption that, this year, those picks later in the 1st round aren't worthy of guaranteed money and guaranteed roster spots. Saying the farther down in the draft, the less worthy. Right now, OKC has two draft picks in that category. Should the Mavs relieve OKC of those picks and give OKC one pick in a later draft when that pick is more desirable, the Mavs would be assuming OKC's burden. 2 less desirables for 1 Maybe, later.
The question is, is this draft, farther down, REALLY that bad, or is that just opinion. We know from past experience UDFAs can be NBA players. What the Mavs need is a REALLY good talent evaluator.
Certainly the guaranteed money is a big factor because it is part of the CBA and can't be avoided. With so many college players choosing to skip this year's draft in favor of getting NIL $$ and having another year of big timing it around campus, it has created a vacuum that moves some players into higher drafted positions which makes teams spend more $$ on riskier investments. It is documented that the level of contribution is well correlated with draft position. The effect moves original 2nd round (non-guaranteed) players into 1st round (guaranteed) slots and will move some originally UDFAs into 2nd round slots. It would be like having to sign DP into a MLE contract.
Better minds than mine are needed to understand the rookie scale, but #10 pick is currently at ~$5.01M for the rookie season, but can be paid as high as ~$6.01M or as low as ~$4.01M. I think most will get the max amount, IIUC. With the 1st two years guaranteed and a mandated 5% raise from year 1 to year 2.
Hypothetical question:
In the first round, each team has 15 minutes to make their selection. If they fail to make the selection, the the next team can make theirs instead. So my question is, if Team A is picking at, say #10, but doesn't feel like the available players are worthy of that level of investment and they delay to let the next team go ahead of them, do they still have to pay #10 level money or do they get the savings between #10 and #11, about $300k/year? Would it be possible to drift down even further until they felt the player and the salary were more in line with the value?