Trade & FA 2025-26: Free Agency Starts 5pm CST/6pm EST

[F Gump]

Yeah I am pretty shocked that like 8 prospects have elected to return. 

It certainly changes the perceived worth of a late FRP. And Gafford/PJ are worth WAY WAY more than any of those. Even multiple. I'd wager Gafford could probably fetch a top 12 pick truthfully. The question is, is there even anyone there? Maluach seems kind of interesting to be honest.

Yeah, that article highlights what I have been trying to tell all you guys this about this draft. The problem with the thinness of the overall talent AND of the depth in higher-quality prospects makes it harder (and much less likely) to find a player worth the hassle.

And that creates another issue, and in today's NBA, it's very relevant.

With the players that are left sliding upwards in where they will be picked (even though they are the same player), you're now getting way less bang for your buck on that guaranteed contract. IOW, you will get a player who in another year would be a semi-dice-roll of a pick at 20, but this year the team at 10 is picking him because he's the best player left on their board. At 20, he's a guaranteed 3.66M hit to your cap (which itself makes a pretty big ~15M total hit to your cap over the next 4 years), but now at 10 for the same player someone is paying 6.02M, almost double, for that dice roll on the same kid. In a hard cap world, it's the money at the margins that make you or break you in roster building, because you never have enough. And who wants to be paying 6M to try to develop a raw kid who is going to be very iffy to even ever make the rotation?

The value player in this draft - potential of the player vs the cost of the contract - will be Flagg. He's worth it, easily, and it's not even close to being a question. After Flagg, however, MAYBE (but not surely) there are a few more slots that are worth that risk-reward, but I'm not so sure. Even Harper (expected pick 2) is a monster commitment (starting at 12.4M, and totals 56+M over 4 years) that will gouge a huge chunk out of a team's hard cap for a player who isn't a great athlete (which lowers his ceiling considerably) -- and he is thought to be the best of the lot after Flagg.

As someone wrote, the mere presence of Flagg (who is off the charts compared to the rest) is what makes this draft. 

But only 1 team gets that prize, and then the rest of it, from some point on down, it's not that great to be a part of. Buying back in? Ugh no. Using really good talent to get one of those picks? Huge mistake and a tremendous waste of hard-to-get talent imo. And btw, a trade that lands you TWO of these bad things isn't somehow making the equation better - that's even worse.