Trade & FA 2025-26: Free Agency Starts 5pm CST/6pm EST

[SleepingHero]

1 I think the Mavs after a simple KD/AD swap would only be 1.76M over A2 (diff in salaries is < 600K). That's BEFORE any Kyrie redo. That's 14 players, which is all they need. Doing nothing more than move Powell for air as part of the deal (Martin or Hardy are the better answer and offer bigger help, of course), and they are good to go (sign Jones to fill that slot and they are only 219K over with Powell as the salary dump, easily solved by a Kyrie redo). PS - The apron limits get easily solved (despite NTI) by doing such deals in the proper sequence.

2 I think they might, because of the oncourt fit making way more possibilities to win than the present one. Yes Beal is the problem, but he's not really an option for PHX to move anywhere (or they would have). KD is rumored to be on the move somewhere, not Beal, for those very reasons (which means PHX will be looking for a fit.) PHX likely wants to get better and win, not prioritize getting pieces for down the road. AD might be a home run for them, frankly.

3 I initially wondered the same, but it just wouldn't have worked. The fact that salaries change on July 1 changes the necessary moving parts. At TDL, DAL-PHX ran into Apron rules and relative salaries and roster limits. More than that, it also didn't solve for what PHX would have wanted (a big, not a perimeter player), and VERY important, no one thinks Luka and Booker could co-exist (especially on a losing team). A 3-way (Luka to LA, AD to PHX, KD to DAL) actually just multiplied the issues. July 1 also lends easier opportunity for a salary dump on the side to teams with cap room and open roster spots.

As you note, AD wasn't Nico's only (or 1st) choice, but he was the best available at the time. Is he married to AD, or merely talking a good game when he touts him as The Guy? We'll see. But KD wasn't even an actual option then.

Yes I'm speaking as if NTI can see the handwriting on the wall and do something good, and speaking from that wishful angle. Yes, like everyone else, I agree there's certainly great reason to think he would never trade AD even though it's probably the best thing he could do. NTI is called that because he's proven himself to be worthy of the name. But I wanna talk about what they SHOULD do, even if NTI is too stupid to do it.

Re point 1) I appreciate you. You just led me to catching a typo on my spreadsheet! My numbers match yours now. 

2) For Phoenix, I don't see how the on-court product changes drastically, if at all, given AD now brings a new set of issues for them. Offensively they take a step back, and defensively they get better but by how much? It honestly reminds me a bit of the situation in New Orleans where AD was tasked to be the guy but never really worked because the depth behind him was so lacking AND he was injury prone. I can see all the pros though. AD does let them win now. AD does fit their situation. AD does match up better with Booker.

3) The caveat of the salaries not lining up is an interesting wrinkle. There was a lot of buzz of a KD to DAL trade rumored post TDL and it made sense since this team was all in and had no future. I think Flagg changes that calculus a bit. And I suppose a better question we should be asking is who fits better next to Flagg vs. who is a better fit for the team as a whole? As to whether Nico is married to AD, I think that answer is a yes. When it's all said and done, how the Luka trade will be viewed not only in how the Mavs do as a whole, but what AD contributed to said success as well. To trade AD four months after the Luka trade for KD will be a massive PR nightmare. 

If anything, I'd expect NTI to quadruple down and just sell the farm for KD, 2nd apron be damned. PJ+Gafford+Martin+Naji+Hardy for KD and then roll with vet min ring chasers like CP3, Jaxon Hayes etc. That to me seems more plausible than Nico trading AD. 

Kyrie/CP3/Williams
KD/Klay/Christie
Flagg/Ring Chaser
AD/OMax/Ring Chaser
Lively/Jones/Powell

An incredibly top heavy, old, injury prone, super team. I'd almost love for it to happen truthfully because it would truly be a 2 year window and then the Mavs can get to work really building around Flagg+Lively.