Trade & FA 2025-26: Free Agency Starts 5pm CST/6pm EST

[SleepingHero]

Marc Stein says Dallas is going to at least “explore” whether or not it could acquire Jrue Holiday; a more reasonable target that Dallas has maintained interest in is Lonzo Ball.

Another name to monitor for the Mavs is Chris Paul

@TheSteinLine

I think Jrue is about as distressed of an asset as they come. About to be 35. Has a massive extension kicking in, the Celtics is without Tatum next year which all but kills their chances at being a contender, and most importantly they are facing a 500 million dollar bill they need to pay given the bloated salary.

Jrue's contract would be the type of contract Boston would PAY to get off of to a tanking team to absorb that salary. The Mavs would be forced to give up at least 1 solid rotation player acquiring Jrue. 

Then we actually get into the mechanics of such a deal. Unfortunately, Jrue's deal starts him at 32.4 mil. That number just doesn't fit cleanly with the Mavs current expendable contracts. As such, any Jrue deal would require the Mavs to send out a bunch of smaller deals. The contracts that make the most sense to me are Gafford, Martin, and Hardy. 

That deal gives the Mavs 29.9 M of salary out, but taking in Jrue's 32.4 in. It just barely misses the amount needed by 2.4mil to be legal. Which means the Mavs has to send out yet another contract which could be either OMax or Powell and we call it a day right?

Well... not quite. Sure this trade now becomes legal and the Mavs now have Jrue Holiday for a bunch of spare parts, but they'd have 11 guys signed (including Flagg) and they'd be well into the 2nd apron after this deal with no realistic way of ducking under it this season barring a massive Kyrie paycut. 

Now we have to get creative. Again, the Mavs SHOULD be at the advantage here. They are doing Boston a huge favor. It will not be easy for a competitive team to just absorb Jrue's salary and remain competitive. So, if the Mavs must send out 4 guys to get Jrue, what about making this a 3 team trade and they get both targets they are after?

BOS: Hardy+Vucevic+Pat Williams
CHI: Porzingis+Gafford+Martin+Naji+Scheierman
DAL: Holiday+Ball

Now this is a massive trade. 8 player trades don't just happen. Last time it has happened was 2011 (according to google). But I think Chicago is funnily enough the best trade partner here to make it work for all teams.

Why CHI does it:

CHI is ready to move on from Vucevic. They've tried and failed so many times the last 2 1/2 years to move on from him and each time they couldn't make a deal happen. His value is a massive negative. They also have a bloated contract in Pat Williams as well that is anchoring them down. Although Williams is a serviceable player, he is overpaid and often injured. In this trade they get a 1 year refresh with another european center, several wings to replace what they've lost this past season with Lavine, Williams, and DeRozan. 

Why BOS does it:
I mean in 1 trade Boston cures their salary issues while maintaining a semblance of their current team identity.  Need I say more? Sure, they are downgrading here in terms of Vucevic vs. KP, but that is typically what happens when you are trading for guys who are making less than your current guys. The real draw is that Vuc is making 10 mil less than KP this season, is an ironman compared to KP, is able to shoot the 3, AND is expiring. They also get a switchable forward who is a defensive minded guy that can fill the hole Tatum's absence will have this year. Hardy is just a sweetener. Truthfully though. Boston is only doing this deal because it gets them under the 2nd apron with an emergency release valve to below the 1st apron next summer when they can get off of Vucevic's deal. 

Why DAL does it:

This trade does put the Mavs into 2nd apron hell. After signing Flagg, they'd be about 3.4 mil over the 2nd apron, with 2 needed roster spots to fill. Adding those in they'd be around 9 mil over the 2nd apron. Theoretically if Kyrie took that paycut (which would start him at just over 35 mil) the Mavs could avoid the 2nd apron. But I would push back on the idea of doing everything possible to get below the 2nd apron this summer IF this trade went through. Mostly because the Mavs team is basically set at this point. In this deal they get 2 incredibly talented guards for spare parts and have consolidated the roster. If they re-signed Exum and Kai Jones, their roster would look like:

Kyrie/Ball/Exum
Holiday/Klay/Williams
Flagg/Christie
AD/PJ/OMax
Lively/Powell/Jones

Their biggest issue is obviously health, but that has ALWAYS been the issue around a team whose core is built upon AD. And by next season, if they extend PJ at a presumed 20 mil a year, they'd be just barely over the 2nd apron by about 3 mil, which is very easy to maneuver out of. If Nico is serious about his grandmaster plan that caused him to blow up a title contender in the middle of the night, then I can see him saying the 2nd apron is tolerable for 1 season. So much so that they could theoretically front load Kyrie's contract for this upcoming season, and have it gradually decrease. Lets say they gave him 42 mil for next season with -8% decreases, then the Mavs would only be over the 2nd apron by 400k. 

Again, lots of options. But if they are wanting to trade for Jrue, then I don't see why they shouldn't go all out. At least this deal protects the picks for each team.